Numbers by themselves are really boring. It’s only when you apply them to sports do they start becoming fun. You can use stats to find fun (or sad) little tidbits about your favorite players. One of my favorite players is Aaron Rodgers. This article will examine the statistical history of Aaron Rodger and Packers rookie receivers.
The 2022 Packers Rookies
The Green Bay Packers will be entering the 2022 season with one of their most inexperienced wide receiver room in the Rodgers era. Their most experienced receivers are newcomer Sammy Watkins (eight years) and veteran Packers receivers Allen Lazard (four years) and Randall Cobb (11 years). They also are giving second year receiver Amari Rodgers another crack. The Packers added three rookies to the group in this year’s draft:
- Christian Watson, NDSU, 34th overall (2nd round)
- Romeo Doubs, Nevada, 132nd overall (4th round)
- Samori Toure, Nebraska, 258th overall (7th round)
The Green Bay Packers have drafted or signed 21 rookie wide receivers ever since Rodgers started in 2008. Of those 21, only three have made the Pro Bowl. The following list will detail the year each receiver was drafted, their draft position, and their stats for the year:
2008: Rodgers first year starting
Jordy Nelson: 2nd round, 33/54 366yds 2tds
Brett Swain 7th round, 0/1
Jake Allen undrafted, 0/0
2010: no rookies
Randall Cobb: 2nd round, 25/31 375yds 1td
Jarrett Boykin: undrafted, 5/6 27yds
2013: Rodgers out 7 games
Chris Harper: 4th round, 0/0
Myles White: undrafted, 9/12 66yds
Jeff Janis: 7th round, 2/2 16yds
Davante Adams: 2nd round, 38/66 446yds 3tds
2015: no rookies
Trevor Davis: 5th round, 3/7 24yds-1td
Geronimo Allison: undrafted, 12/22 202yds 2tds
2017: Rodgers out 9 games
Michael Clark: undrafted, 4/14 41yds
2018: 5 rookies added, most in Rodgers era
Jake Kumerow: undrafted, 8/11 103yds 1td
Allen Lazard: undrafted, 1/1 7yd
J’Mon Moore: 4th round, 2/3 15yds
Equanimeous St. Brown: 6th round, 21/36 328yds
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 5th round, 38/73 581yds 2tds
Darrius Shepherd: undrafted, 1/2 1yd
Reggie Begelton: undrafted, 0/0
Malik Taylor: undrafted, 5/6 66yds 1td
Amari Rodgers: 3rd round, 4/8 45yds
Those 21 rookies accounted for 211 receptions on 355 attempts, 2709 yards, and 13 touchdowns. The following breakdowns the stats for each round:
1st round: 0
2nd round: 3 drafted 96/151 1187yds 6tds
3rd round: 1 drafted 4/8 45yds
4th round: 2 drafted 2/3 15yds
5th round: 2 drafted 41/80 605yds 3tds
6th round: 1 drafted 21/36 328yds
7th round: 2 drafted 2/3 16yds
Undrafted: 10 undrafted 45/73 513yds 4tds
- Second round rookies have accounted for 45.5% of the reception total, 43.82% yards, and 46.1% touchdowns.
- Rounds 3-7 account for 70 receptions (33.2%), 1009 yards (37.24%) and 3 touchdowns (23.1%).
- The undrafted rookies accounted for 21.33% receptions, 18.93% yards, and 30.8% touchdowns.
- There have only been six rookies to catch over 20 receptions: Adams, Nelson, Cobb, MVS, St. Brown, and Allison. Those six receivers account for 167 receptions (79.1%), 2298 yards (84.8%) and 10 touchdowns (76.9%).
- Each of the second round receivers have made the Pro Bowl: Nelson (1), Cobb (1), and Adams (5). Nelson and Cobb are Packers’ fan favorites. Adams is playing his way into the Hall of Fame if he can continue his insane touchdown production.
What to take away
So what does this all mean? In fantasy football, past data does not equal future results, but it can certainly help predict success. If we apply this data to the incoming rookies, it will look like this:
- Christian Watson 2nd round – successful career
- Romeo Doubs 4th round – bust
- Samori Toure 7th round – bust
In 2018 we saw the Packers start two rookie wide receivers (MVS and St. Brown). Davante Adams was targeted 169 times and the team went 6-9-1. The 2022 Packers no longer have Davante Adams. This year more than ever the Packers need their rookie wideouts to step up. Allen Lazard is a good wide receiver, but Sammy Watkins is oft injured and Randall Cobb is 32 years old. Will Christian Watson continue the trend of 2nd round Packer receiver success? Will Romeo Doubs continue making amazing catches and break the mold of 4th round selections producing very little? Can Samori Toure solidify his spot on the 53-man roster? These are all things Packers fan hope for.
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