More Pac-12 expansion?
Conference realignment is the new norm in college sports. It’s all headed by college football as it’s the cash cow. Even further, that is decided by media deals. This year, the Pac-12 has only two members because the conference failed to get a new media deal and 10 of its members bolted to the Big Ten (four), Big 12 (four), and ACC (two). All that’s left is Oregon State and Washington State.
With that, the “conference” was allowed to remain the Pac-12 in name only as it searched to backfill the vacancies. Pac-12 expansion has been a hot topic of late. It did a great job of locking down some of the top Mountain West programs in Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, and Colorado State (well, three of four are good). This group of four MWC programs will join the Pac-12ish in 2026.
However, the rule to be considered as a legitimate conference in college football is that you have to have eight members. While at six, the Pac-12 expansion shifted its eyes to a few big-name Group of 5 programs from the American Athletic Conference.
Pac-12 Expansion Shunned By Four Group of 5 Programs
In the following days, it was becoming more clear that the Pac-12 expansion was not slowing down. Brett McMurphy of The Action Network reported that Gonzaga was headed to the Pac-12 as an everything-but-football member. An hour later, Gonzaga as well as a dozen other reporters refuted the claim.
The Pac-12 set its sights on four American Athletic Conference programs as well, attempting to pull an ACC and cover the continental United States. Those schools were revealed to be the University of Texas-San Antonio (UTSA), Memphis, South Florida (USF), and Tulane.
In terms of football prowess, a conference with UTSA, Memphis, USF, Tulane, Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State, Washington State, and Oregon State would be decent. It certainly wouldn’t let the Pac-12 re-join the ranks of the Power conferences just yet, but it’d be a step in the right direction.
However, they were put on a deadline and have since reaffirmed their commitment to the American Athletic Conference in a joint statement:
Here is the official joint statement from Memphis, Tulane, USF and UTSA recommitting themselves to the AAC: pic.twitter.com/Eihc2ZxohZ
— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) September 23, 2024
If memory serves, the American Athletic Conference was formed out of the ashes of the Big East. In 2013, the AAC had 10 members: Louisville, Rutgers, Cincinnati, UConn, Houston, UCF, SMU, Memphis, South Florida, and Temple.
Louisville and Rutgers left for the ACC and Big Ten in 2014, respectively. ECU, Tulane, and Tulsa were all added as a response. Navy joined in 2015. The conference added Wichita State as a non-football member, boosting the basketball prowess.
Then, as the Big 12 prepped to poach Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF, the conference added Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, and UAB in 2022 with UTSA joining in 2023 and Army this year.
The 15-school (14 football) conference released its own statement of solidarity:
15 Members.
15 Commitments.
1 American. #AmericanWay pic.twitter.com/DpnmkQuMBP— The American (@American_Conf) September 23, 2024
The Future
In all reality, the Pac-12 is going to struggle to get to that eight-team threshold. On September 23, Air Force reaffirmed its commitment to the Mountain West Conference. As of now, the MWC has Air Force, UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming, Hawai’i, Nevada, San Jose State, and Utah State as a football conference. That’s not ideal for them.
If the Mountain West is committed to existing and not getting picked apart by the Pac-12, it should look to add some FCS powers. The four Dakota schools would be great adds, as would the Montana schools, SEMO, or what have you.
Ultimately, five strong(ish) Group of 5 programs (if you include Air Force turning down the move is concerning for the future of the Pac-12. How many of those programs view a jump to the Pac-12 as a lateral move? Perhaps they should look to Conference USA. Or, if they want to get really squirrelly, the MAC. Imagine Toledo at Boise State in #Pac12AfterDark. However, breaking through the MAC stronghold would prove to be difficult. That’s a tight-knit conference.
