Let’s paint a picture: It’s a Saturday afternoon, almost all your bets have gone the other way, you’re tired but pushing through. A warrior some would call you. Doing the mental math in your head of who needs what and what needs to happen in order for this team to cover or this over to hit. It often times gets forgotten how sitting in the comfort of our own homes and betting on games can be more exhausting for us than the players on the field playing. Sure, Bryce Young led Alabama on a game winning drive to beat Texas, but I just mentally played in double digit games yesterday. I’m exhausted, beaten down, my bank account is lighter, and I need an ice bath.
College football is notorious for scoring points and a lot of them. Look at Appalachian State vs North Carolina last week that saw the Tar Heels win 63-61.
That takes us to what could be the early candidate for worst beat of the season so far.
Our story begins down at Ryan Field in Evanston Illinois where the Northwestern Wildcats played host to the Duke Blue Devils in week two of the 2022 College Football season:
How We Got There:
With the Over/Under set at 55.5 (O/U found on The Score app), Northwestern and Duke were going to have to keep the ball moving.
*Other books had this O/U ranging from 54.5-57
After the first quarter, Duke led 14-0. Thirty seconds into the second quarter Duke extended their lead 21-0 after running back Jordan Waters scored his second rushing touchdown. Northwestern would score 10 points in the final 11 minutes to cut it 21-10 at half.
Halftime Update:
31 total points at half, only 25 points away from the over, seems fairly doable.
Third Quarter:
Duke marches down the field on a four minute drive to start the half.
Seeming destined for a touchdown, this happens:
https://twitter.com/CFBONFOX/status/1568661610641645570?s=20&t=tCMxzloNfdR1uwOEY6Qa_Q
One of the wackiest interceptions you’ll see this season.
Northwestern would get to the Duke 48 yard line before fumbling on 4th & 1. Duke recovered the ball at their own 45 yard line. Duke would then get the ball down to Northwestern’s 21 yard line before kicker Charlie Ham would miss a 38 yarder. Redzone interceptions and missed field goals are never kind to over bettors. Northwestern would score with 1:54 left in the third quarter but miss the two-point conversion. The third quarter would end with Duke at Northwestern’s 20 yard line.
Over Update Through 3 Quarters:
1st quarter: Duke 14-0
2nd quarter: Northwestern 10-7
3rd quarter: Northwestern 6-0
Points needed entering 4th quarter: 19
4th quarter:
Duke started out strong scoring two minutes into the quarter to take a 28-16 lead. This cut the target number down to 12. Northwestern would make it to Duke’s 38-yard-line before not converting on 4th & 4 with 10 minutes left.
Finally, more points were scored with a little under six minutes left. Northwestern quarterback Ryan Hilinski found Danny Navarro III for the 14 yard score. This cut Dukes lead 28-23 but more importantly, it lowered the target number down to five.
https://twitter.com/NUOnBTN/status/1568677352544305152?s=20&t=SIxunnJRgSoQzvrWUCByrg
Things would get wild in the final five minutes.
With 3:39 left to play, Northwestern quarterback Ryan Hilinski would be picked off on his own 34-yard-line.
Needing just a touchdown to hit the over, this sequence of events happened:
Duke:
1st & goal at the NW five-yard-line
2nd & goal at the NW two-yard-line
3rd & goal at the NW one-yard line
Duke kicks field goal on 4th & goal at the NW one-yard-line to extend lead 31-23.
Brutal…and it would only get worse for over bettors.
Northwestern Disaster:
Let’s go back to that picture you were painting in the beginning of the article. This time, you can add the word “hope” somewhere on the picture. No matter how bad things may be going, we always like to tell ourselves maybe fortunes can turn around. It’s that blind faith you need sometimes to stay positive.
Needing a mere two points, Northwestern was getting the ball back with 1:18 left in the game. Vibes were low after Duke couldn’t punch it in, but faith wasn’t lost just yet. Quarterback Ryan Hilinski was driving the Wildcats down the field, and over bettors were starting to come out of their graves.
3rd & 1 on the Duke 12-yard-line with 17 seconds left brings us to the end of our story.
For all those that had some combination of over 54.5-57 and don’t want to re-live the horror, now is the time to turn away:
https://twitter.com/TheDraftNetwork/status/1568683219091947520?s=20&t=SIxunnJRgSoQzvrWUCByrg
A fumble at the one-yard-line recovered by Duke and game over at 54 points.
College football is a humbling and brutal game at times. It will kick you right in the ass when you start believing again.
With that being said, I can’t wait for next Saturday to do it all again.
Thanks for reading!
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