Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints
The Saints have a mountain of adversity stacked against them in this game, despite returning home for the first time in three weeks. Derek Carr is expected to miss several weeks with an oblique injury, leaving rookie Spencer Rattler, who has never played in an NFL game, to fill the void under center. New Orleans is also on a short week, having played in Kansas City on Monday night.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have had a long rest, having not played since this past Thursday night against the Falcons. Baker Mayfield is on pace for a career season statistically, having racked up 11 passing touchdowns to just two interceptions over five weeks. He also ranks in the top five in completion percentage (71.9%) and passer rating (112.2).
Pick the Buccaneers to win and cover.
Buccaneers win 27-21
Arizona Cardinals (+5) at Green Bay Packers
Arizona earned a surprising upset against San Francisco in Week 5 despite being a 7.5-point underdog. The line on this week’s contest in Green Bay once again seems to favor a bet on the Cardinals. Kyler Murray has started off the season strong with seven passing touchdowns and only two picks. He also leads the NFL in rushing yards per attempt (10.7), cementing him as one of the league’s best dual-threat quarterbacks. His team should be able to move the ball well against a Packers defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards per game (345.8) and 1st downs allowed per game (21.6).
On the other side of the ball, Jordan Love has thrown five interceptions over his three starts, making him potentially susceptible against an Arizona defense that ranks in the top 10 in interceptions.
Green Bay wins it close but fails to cover.
Packers win 27-24
Washington Commanders (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens
This is easily one of the best bets of the season so far. Washington has won four straight games and is one of the hottest teams in the league, especially on offense. Jayden Daniels has performed the best out of all the rookie quarterbacks, so much so that there has even been some talk about the former Heisman trophy winner being in the MVP conversation. Daniels currently leads the NFL’s highest-scoring offense through five weeks; one that has led Washington to their first 4-1 start since 2008.
Baltimore, on the other hand, ranks 26th in points per game allowed (25.2) and 19th in yards per game allowed (340.6). Expect this game to be a high-scoring shootout that showcases two of the league’s most dynamic quarterbacks. The Ravens should be able to grab a win at home, but this point spread is too lofty.
Take the Commanders to cover.
Ravens win 34-31
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (+3)
This AFC West battle has the lowest over/under (35.5) of any game in Week 6, and for good reason. The Chargers and Broncos are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in scoring defense this season, making it virtually guaranteed that points will be at a premium for this contest.
Since Week 3, both of these teams have been trending in different directions. The Broncos have won three in a row and their defense has become one of the strongest units in the league, holding four consecutive opponents under 20 points. They also rank third in tackles for loss (31), second in QB hits (42), third in sacks (19), and sixth in interceptions (5).
Meanwhile, the Chargers lost back-to-back games prior to having their bye week and only scored 10 points in both games. On top of that, star players like Joe Alt and Joey Bosa remain injured and questionable to play. Denver has also won five straight at home against the Chargers, and 10 out of 11 at home dating all the way back to 2013. I like Denver to cover and win outright.
Broncos win 19-16
Detroit Lions (-3) at Dallas Cowboys
Detroit is my second favorite bet of the week after Washington. Almost everything in this matchup appears to favor the Lions. They are coming off a bye, the Cowboys’ defense has been decimated by injuries, and Dallas is 0-2 at home this season, allowing an average of 36 points. Cowboy games have followed a fairly predictable pattern this season. Their defense has played well against poor offensive teams (the Browns, Giants, and Steelers), while they struggled to stop the two high-powered offenses they played (the Ravens and Saints).
Here they are pitted against a well-rested Lions team that hung 42 points on a strong Seattle defense their last time out. Only having to surrender three points makes Detroit of the week’s best plays. Take the Lions to win and cover in a high-scoring affair.
Lions win 34-27
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