It was a profitable start to NFL Week 5. Thursday Night Football Prime Picks hit on four out of the five plays; including a +900 six-leg same game parlay. Luckily, there’s still 15 more games to have some action on this Sunday. Here’s some profitable bets that deserve some attention.
Lock of Week 5: San Francisco 49ers -6.5 at Carolina Panthers
While the 49ers had a short week to prepare for the Panthers, this is still the best bet of NFL Week 5. Why? Well, Carolina has been the least profitable team against the spread (ATS) since last year, and Baker Mayfield is the 2nd least profitable quarterback ATS since 2018. The Panthers are 3-15 ATS since Week 4 of 2021. Meanwhile, Mayfield is 26-38-1 ATS since his first start in 2018.
Carolina’s offense has been inconsistent all season, and now it has to face San Francisco’s defense. The 49ers just manhandled the Los Angeles Rams. They can certainly duplicate this result against the Panthers.
Meanwhile, Kyle Shanahan will likely keep things simple on offense. The Panthers have a middle tier defense with their rush defense being slightly worse than their pass defense. The 49ers have a top 10 rushing offense so they’ll likely exploit that matchup, and control the ball.
Underdog of Week 5: Seattle Seahawks (+195) at New Orleans Saints
There are a lot intriguing underdogs in Week 5. However, the Seahawks might have the most enticing matchup out of all the underdogs. They have a 2-2 record, and their offense is surprisingly effective. Unfortunately, their defense is horrid. Luckily, that may not matter against the Saints.
New Orleans’ offense has not been good all season, and that was when everyone was healthy. They are not healthy right now. Jameis Winston is doubtful and Michael Thomas has bee ruled out. Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara and Jarvis Landry are questionable.
Also, the Saints are returning from a trip to London. Only five times in NFL history has a team returned home from Europe without a bye week. Those teams are 2-3 ATS and either tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in that following game. Seahawks are definitely in position to win this outright.
Best O/U: Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets, UNDER 45
How is this Week 5 game going to break the 45-point barrier? The Dolphins and the Jets have each only participated in a game that went over 45 points once this season. Plus, both of these teams come into the game with QBs that didn’t start Week 1.
Teddy Bridgewater and Zach Wilson will be the starting quarterbacks in this game. Bridgewater has been a solid backup throughout his career, but he’s not a QB that’s going to light up the scoreboard. The same can be said for Wilson, who returned from a knee injury last weekend. He only completely half of his passes, and he isn’t known for his accuracy anyway. It’s hard to envision this game exceeding the total.
Prop of Week 5: Chris Olave OVER 62.5 Rec Yards vs Seahawks (-115 DK)
Chris Olave has been one of the best offensive rookies in the early part of this season. He has 21 receptions for 335 receiving yards and one TD. He has surpassed 63 receiving yards in three consecutive games. He is getting open and gaining yards regardless if its Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton throwing him the ball.
Those opportunities will continue to come because the Saints receiving group is banged up. Michael Thomas is out with a foot injury while Jarvis Landry is nursing an ankle injury. As a result, Saints QBs have targeted Olave 33 times over the past three games. That’s a great sign heading into a matchup against a poor pass defense.
The Seahawks’ pass defense is tied for fourth in most passing yards allowed per game. There’s been at least one player surpassing 63 receiving yards against the Seahawks in every game this year. Olave’s got a great shot to add his name to that list in Week 5.
Feel Good 3-Leg, 6-Point Teaser (+160)
- Steelers +20.5 at Bills
- Falcons +16 at Buccaneers
- 49ers -0.5 at Panthers
This teaser looks ridiculous. However, there’s a good chance all three of the legs hit. First of all, the Steelers have only lost by at least 21 points twice since Week 1 of 2019 (45 games). Both of those losses during that time period came against the Chiefs. Yes, the Steelers are giving Kenny Pickett his first start, but winning games by three TDs is difficult, even for a strong offensive team like the Bills.
Next, the Falcons are 4-0 against the spread. Yes, Tom Brady is 9-2 ATS when his team is on a 2-game losing streak. However, the Bucs are really banged up. Every Bucs WR, besides Mike Evans, is nursing an injury. Tight end Cameron Brate is likely out with a concussion. Even Brady is dealing with a shoulder and finger issue. Atlanta may lose, but it’ll be less than 17 points.
As mentioned earlier, the 49ers are a mismatch for the Panthers on paper. Here, they simply need to win the game as opposed to winning by at least a touchdown on a standard single bet.
