After the Washington Commanders’ 12-7 victory over the Chicago Bears, there are 13 more Week 6 games to bet on. Luckily, that provides you plenty of opportunities to capitalize on some good lines and props. Last week’s piece didn’t do so well. Hopefully, that gets turned around with this week’s batch of wagers.
Lock of Week 6: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -5 at Atlanta Falcons
The one bet that did hit in last week’s piece was the 49ers covering a 6.5-point spread over the Carolina Panthers. The 49ers won 37-15, and dominated from start to finish. So, it makes sense to go back them this week as they face the 2-3 Falcons. First of all, as mentioned on the Gridiron Football Show, San Francisco is 6-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back east coast games over the past 20 years.
Meanwhile, Atlanta is a heavy run team. They call a lot of run plays, and Marcus Mariota scrambles a lot. However, the 49ers are first in rushing yards allowed and third in passing yards allowed. They also average the most sacks per game. If Tampa Bay’s defense was able to hold Atlanta to 15 points, the 49ers can do the same.
On the flip side, Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers offense had no problem moving the ball against a middle tier Carolina defense. The Falcons defense is worse than the Panthers statistically. Kyle Shanahan will likely use the same gameplan again: rely on their top 10 rushing offense, and pick their spots to pass.
Underdog of Week 6: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+120) at Cleveland Browns
Bill Belichick is going for the 324th overall victory of his head coaching career, which would tie him with George Halas for the second-most all-time. He’s got a great opportunity to do that against the Browns this weekend regardless of who his starting quarterback is. With the Patriots, he is 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS vs. Cleveland.
The Browns’ No. 1 rushing offense will challenge the Patriots’ lower tier rush defense. However, this battle is a two-way street. New England averages the fourth most rush yards per game while Cleveland is 26th in rush yards allowed. Whoever wins the ground game will control the clock and control the game as a result.
Yes, betting on QB uncertainty in Bailey Zappe (or a compromised Mac Jones) is a great option. But, it is not like Jacoby Brissett is doing anything special. Meanwhile, the Patriots just shut down the league’s No. 1 offense statistically in the Detroit Lions. They can ride that momentum into a Week 6 victory.
Best O/U: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers, UNDER 46 (-110)
The under has hit in four out of five of the Bucs’ games this season. The Buccaneers have only eclipsed 21 points as a team once this season, which was a 41-31 loss to Kansas City. Tampa Bay is much more methodically and clock management team. They aren’t creating as many explosive plays as they have been in previous seasons. Meanwhile, there defense remains stout. They are only allowing 16.6 point per game, which is sixth best in the NFL.
On the flip side, the under has hit three out of five times in games involving the Steelers. The most points the Steelers have scored in a game this year is 23 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Whether it has been Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett, there isn’t a lot of offensive success to speak of for Pittsburgh. That’s not a good sign heading into a game with Tampa. Wouldn’t be shocked if the total finishes in the high 30s or low 40s.
Player Prop of Week 6: Jeff Wilson Jr. OVER 65.5 Rush Yds at ATL (-115)
As mentioned earlier, the 49ers have currently have the NFL’s best rushing attack. Jeff Wilson Jr. is a big reason why. Since running back Elijah Mitchell suffered a knee injury back in Week 1, Wilson has been the workhorse back. He’s averaging 88.3 rush yards and 16.3 carries per game over the past month. He has surpassed the 65.5 benchmark in each of the last four games.
At least one player has registered at least 66 rushing yards against the Falcons in three different games this season. However, one of those occasions was because of all-purpose player Taysom Hill. The two running backs that covered this number were the Browns’ Nick Chubb and the Seahawks’ Rashaad Penny. Both player’s respective teams commit to running the football, like the 49ers. If Sam Francisco commits to the run like they did against Carolina last weekend, Wilson should cover this number easily.
Week 6 Parlay: 3-Legs, All First Half Focused (+627)
- Seahawks OVER 12.5 1st Half Points (-105)
- Eagles -3.5 vs Cowboys – 1st Half Spread (-110)
- 49ers -3 at Falcons – 1st Half Spread (-105)
The Seahawks have scored at least 13 first half points in four out of five games this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have allowed opponents to average 16 first half points to start the season. Arizona is also 0-5 against the spread. So, this legs comes down to a fast-starting offense capitalizing on a slow-starting defense.
Next, the Eagles are best in the league in first half scoring. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 18th in the same category. Philadelphia is also one of two teams that have started the year 5-0 against the spread in the first half. The Cowboys are 4-1 SU in the first half of game. So, this is a risky play. However, this is the stiffest test the Cowboys have seen with Cooper Rush at QB. Just not sure they have the offensive firepower to match a fast-starting Eagles team.
Lastly, the other 5-0 team against the first half spread is the San Francisco 49ers. They are allowing a league best 2.4 first half points so far this season; including two first half shutouts. It been mentioned many times throughout this piece why the 49ers are better than the Falcons. This is just further evidence why.
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