Can I see them play a regular season game first? In this instance and for the sake of value, no. Going into the NFL season, awards are always some of the most popular season long prop bets. Getting these bets at nice plus odds value, it gives bettors the opportunity to go in on multiple players. The returns on nailing just one pick should generate profit and make up the losses on the others. With the NFL offensive rookie of the year, circumstance and situation always factor into who wins, but history can also help us get a clearer picture of who ends up on top.
Last season, Trevor Lawrence opened as the favorite at +350 (All odds can be tracked at sportsbettingdime). Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (+550) turned into the very heavy favorite as the season went along. Ultimately it was the Cincinnati Bengals Ja’Marr Chase (+2000) that took home the honors. Chase finished with 81 receptions for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns. He also rushed for two more touchdowns. It was a spectacular rookie season by a special player.
Looking Back On Winners Since 2000:
Since 2000, here’s how the position categories of winners has looked:
Quarterbacks- 9
Running backs- 9
Wide receiver-4
Weird 2022 Draft:
The Pittsburg Steelers made Kenny Pickett the first quarterback off the board with the 20th overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft. The last time the first quarterback went that late was when the San Francisco 49ers took Virginia Tech quarterback Jim Druckenmiller with the 26th pick in the 1996 draft.
Quarterback History:
Looking at where the nine quarterback winners of the 2000’s were drafted, there was one outlier. Dak Prescott won the award in 2016 despite being drafted in the 4th round with the 135th overall pick. With the outlier Prescott, the average draft position comes out to 18. Using the scale without the outlier, average draft position comes out to around roughly 3.5. Prescott is the only quarterback to win the award in the 2000’s while not getting picked in at least the top 11.
Pickett Has To Play:
Kenny Pickett is currently tied as the favorite at +900. Pickett is also the Steelers backup quarterback head coach Mike Tomlin announced. Starting the season behind Mitch Trubisky, Pickett should see an opportunity to play at some point this season. What could hurt Picketts case is if he has to wait weeks before getting playing time. Of the nine QB’s to win in the 2000’s the average games played between them are 15.4. five of the nine started all 16 games their rookie year, Justin Herbert and RG3 played 15 of 16. The two exceptions were Vince Young who played 15 games while starting in 13, and Ben Roethlisberger who played 14 and started in 13. Based off this metric, Pickett will most likely have to start and of course play well in at least 15 of 17 games this season.
After Pickett, Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder (+2500) was drafted by the Falcons with the 74th pick, and Liberty quarterback Malik Willis (+4000) was drafted 86th by the Titans.
Kenny Pickett has to win the starting job in Pittsburg relatively soon if he wants a realistic chance at winning offensive rookie of the year.
Although history is not on Picketts side being the 20th pick, he still should have the best chance to win offensive rookie of the year as a first round quarterback.
Bottom Line:
Pickett will most likely be the only quarterback in the mix for OROY. He has to play well but he also has to play. To have a realistic chance, he must be starting by at least week 3 and run with it from there. It’s a long season, but a talented WR class will all be hunting each other to get honors at seasons end.
Ridder should also get an opportunity to play if Mariota struggles.
*Odds can be found at Fanduel Sportsbook
Running Back History:
The average draft position of running backs to win the award is around 48th overall. Only four of the nine winners since 2000 came from the first round. Since 2010, there have been four running back winners. Saquon Barkley (2nd) and Todd Gurley (10th) were top 10 picks, while Alvin Kamara (67th) and Eddie Lacy (61st) were third round draft picks. In a very pass happy NFL and as we’ve seen with the two most recent winners, catching passes at the RB position is rewarded. Barkley caught 91 passes his rookie year, while Kamara caught 81. Running backs in these spots will all get their rushing yards. The receiving opens up other elements to your game and can distance a player at the running back position above his rookie counterparts.
The 2022 running backs:
Dameon Pierce (+1100):
The 107th overall pick taken in the early 4th round by the Houston Texans is the favorite from the running back side. Pierce has catapulted up boards since the Texans cut running back Marlon Mack. This has given Dameon Pierce the clear path as the starter after impressing in preseason. Pierce should get the lion-share of carries in Houston, but will need to improve catching passes if he wants to really get the attention of voters. Although unlikely, It is not impossible for Pierce to win the award with 90% of his production coming from carries. Pierce is in the clearest starting spot of the rookie running back group.
Breece Hall (+1200):
The first running back taken off the board by the New York Jets with the 36th overall pick. According to ESPN, Hall is listed as the RB1 for Jets. Hall is coming off a great season at Iowa State that saw him go over 1,400 rushing yards. He also caught 36 passes for an additional 300 yards. Problems come in with Michael Carter playing a factor this season. Carter caught 36 passes for the Jets last season and will likely be featured in a lot of pass sets. This will take away production from Hall, who will need to have that elusive duel threat season we saw from Barkley and Kamara.
Brian Robinson Jr (+1600):
Robinson was making news in Washington early into camp and preseason. After being shot, Robinson is expected to make a full recovery. It was reported that he is off his crutches and the swelling in his knee has gone down. Robinson was placed on the non-football injury list and will not be eligible to play the teams first four games. Unfortunately for him, in the last six years every OROY has played in every regular season game besides Justin Herbert who played in 15 of 16.
Rest of the pack:
- James Cook (+2000) {Bills}
- Isaiah Pacheco (+2500) {Chiefs}
- Kenneth Walker (+3000) {Seahawks}
Bottom Line:
Dameon Pierce is in the best starting position, but this isn’t a particularly strong group of running backs to bet on for rookie of the year.
Wide Receiver History:
Ja’Marr Chase winning last season broke a six season wide receiver drought since the Giants Odell Beckham Jr. won the award in 2014. Before Beckham, Percy Harvin won in 2009. Percy Harvin was the second wide receiver of the 2000’s to win the award after Anquan Boldin won in 2003. Chase was drafted sixth overall, Beckham 12th, Harvin 22nd, and Boldin 54th. Anquan Boldin is the outlier of the four not being a first round pick. History of the 2000’s would indicate it should be another 5/6 years before a wide receiver wins the award. With 2022 being a rather uncharacteristic NFL draft, history could be here sooner than you think.
2022 WR Draft:
The 2022 NFL draft saw six wide receivers go in the first round. Seven WR’s were drafted in the second round.
Hyped up WR’s that might disappoint:
George Pickens (+900):
Drafted 52nd overall by the Pittsburg Steelers, Pickens is the co-favorite with teammate Kenny Pickett. Pickens started shooting up OROY boards after his touchdown catch against the Seahawks in the final week of the preseason. An explosive wide receiver, Pickens will split catches with Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson. As much skill as Pickens has shown, splitting catches with two other hungry young wide receivers could cause him to not have a statistical monster season. In a very competitive wide receiver class, Pickens numbers may lack behind.
Preseason George Pickens was a problem. What will the regular season have in store for the OROY candidate? 👀 pic.twitter.com/moCMOhU8tI
— NFL (@NFL) August 31, 2022
Chris Olave (+1100):
The Ohio State star was drafted by the New Orleans Saints with the 11th overall pick. Olave goes into a situation in New Orleans where he could be the first or third wide receiver. With Michael Thomas expected to play week 1 and Jarvis Landry on the Saints roster, Olave will have to work for his targets. Depending on how good and healthy Thomas looks, Olave could be in for a quieter rookie year than some are expecting.
Skyy Moore (+1200):
An extremely trendy picks, Moore was taken 54th overall by the Kansas City Chiefs. Throw any wide receiver with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and it’s easy to get excited. Despite the departure of Tyreek Hill, Moore joins a crowded wide receiver room in Kansas City. Comprised of Mecole Hardman, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Moore is going to need to work incredibly hard to work his way up. The raw talent is there but the situation is very crowded. Oh, and Mahomes favorite target Travis Kelce might get 1,000 targets this season.
Where the value is:
Treylon Burks (+1400):
My personal favorite pick to win OROY, Burks was taken with the 18th overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft. The Titans who loved Burks, traded star receiver AJ Brown in order to get him. With opportunity meaning a ton, Burks goes into the best situation of any rookie WR in terms of production. Burks is surrounded by Robert Woods coming off a major injury, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. When running back Derrick Henry is not getting the ball, Ryan Tannenhill will look to his rookie wide receiver to make a play. It will be a lot to ask of the young wide receiver, but the Titans wouldn’t have made the move if they didn’t feel confident.
Drake London (+1600):
The first wide receiver taken off the board in the 2022 NFL draft, London was picked 8th by the Atlanta Falcons. London played in the week 1 preseason game against the Lions catching one pass for 24 yards. He missed the final two preseason games, but is trending in the right direction to play week 1. The talented London is also slotted as the Falcons No.1 wide receiver. Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson will get theirs, but London should be targeted early and often by quarterback Marcus Mariota. London should be able to turn in a big rookie season if he can stay healthy. The value at +1600 is great for the player who could very well be the best offensive player in the draft with a great rookie situation to put up numbers.
Best of the rest:
- Romeo Doubs (+1400) {Packers}
- Christian Watson (+1600) {Packers}
*Both seem interchangeable and could cancel each other out*
- Garrett Wilson (+2000) {Jets}
- David Bell (+2000) {Browns}
- Jahan Dotson (+2000) {Commanders}
- Jalen Tolbert (+2000) {Cowboys}
Bottom Line:
Burks and London are the strongest bets here based on circumstance and also history of draft position. As flashy as players like Pickens and Moore might feel, both enter crowded receiving situations. Their numbers might not pop as much as some other WR’s. Wan’Dale Robinson of the New York Giants is worth a look at +5000 in what should be a pass happy Brian Daboll Giants offense. Unless Pickett or Pierce really show out this season, the 2022-2023 OROY will most likely come from the talented and deep WR group of the 2022 NFL draft.