In today’s NFL, the quarterback is the most important position on the field. Without a top-10 QB, it’s next to impossible to win the Super Bowl. Gone are the days when you could win a championship with game managers like Trent Dilfer in 2000 or Brad Johnson in 2022. It’s been over 20 years since those two won it all. Only one quarterback who is not a likely Hall of Famer has won a Super Bowl (Nick Foles in 2017 for the Philadelphia Eagles) since then.
Just look at the final eight teams from last year’s postseason. In my opinion, only one of those eight teams did not have a top-10 quarterback (Baker Mayfield on the Buccaneers). This article will be one of three in a series about how NFL teams fail at finding their QB. This one will focus on NFL general managers reaching in the first round of the draft, desperate to find the coveted franchise quarterback.
Talented Jets Teams
Whether it’s through the draft, trades, or free agency, general managers are in charge of building a championship roster. An elite quarterback alone won’t win you a championship. Plenty of Hall of Fame QBs have never won a title. However, having a talented roster with bad quarterback play won’t work either. The best examples of this are the 2009 and 2010 New York Jets.
The Jets roster was loaded in 2009 and 2010, especially on defense. They were led by Darrelle Revis, one of the best cornerbacks to ever play the game. Then general manager Mike Tannenbaum knew he had a loaded roster, but the quarterback was an issue. He decided to move on from Brett Favre one year after trading for him. He likely thought the future Hall of Famer’s best years were behind him. Plus, Kellen Clemens, the Jets 2006 second-round pick, had not worked out.
Tannenbaum decided to turn to the draft in 2009 to find their QB. Unsurprisingly, the Lions needed a quarterback and selected Matthew Stafford out of Georgia with the first overall pick. The Jets had the 17th pick, and Tannenbaum didn’t think he could wait until then for a QB. He moved up to the 5th pick to select Mark Sanchez out of USC.
It was certainly a surprise pick. No one expected Sanchez to go that high. He had only started one season at USC and had below-average arm strength. In his rookie season, Sanchez threw for 13 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. Those were some of the worst numbers in the NFL. But as I said before, the Jets had a terrific roster. So in 2009, they were able to make it all the way to the AFC Championship game.
The Jets would go on to the AFC Championship game again in 2010. They lost both games and failed to score 20 points in either game. You have to wonder what those Jets teams could have been if Tannenbaum was able to land a franchise quarterback. They lost the AFC title games to the Colts and Steelers. Those teams had future Hall of Famers Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger as their QBs.
Other First Round Reaches
There are plenty of other examples of NFL teams reaching for a quarterback in the first round. In the 2009 first round that featured Stafford and Sanchez, the Buccaneers selected Josh Freeman out of Kansas St. Most draft analysts did not have a first-round grade on Freeman heading into the draft. He played well in the 2010 season but was a total disaster for the rest of his career.
In 2010, the Denver Broncos drafted Tim Tebow 25th overall. He was a terrific athlete but had an unorthodox throwing motion that didn’t project well in the NFL. One draft expert even thought Tebow should go in the 4th round and play tight end. Tebow was out of the league after only three seasons.
2011 was projected to be a strong quarterback draft. Cam Newton, Jake Locker, and Blaine Gabbert were all projected top 10 picks. With all three of them off the board and desperate for a quarterback, the Minnesota Vikings selected Christian Ponder 12th overall. This was a massive shock. Most people expected Ponder to be a mid-round pick. Trent Dilfer, working for ESPN at the time, despised the pick. Dilfer was correct in his analysis and Ponder was out of football after four seasons.
Weak QB Classes
The 2013 and 2022 draft were projected to be two of the worst quarterback classes ever. In 2013, West Virginia’s Geno Smith was the only quarterback analysts expected to go in round one. Instead, the Bills selected Florida St’s EJ Manuel 16th overall. I remember seeing mock drafts having Manuel going in the third round. Manuel would only start 18 games for the Bills. The Jets took Geno Smith in the second round. While it did not work out in New York, Smith is the current starter for the Seattle Seahawks.
A similar thing happened in the 2022 draft. Liberty’s Malik Willis was extremely raw but was still expected to be the only QB drafted in the top 50. He was mocked to the Steelers often because Roethlisberger had recently retired. The Steelers passed on Willis and took Pitt’s Kenny Pickett. Pickett struggled in two seasons, throwing for more than one touchdown just once in his two seasons in Pittsburgh. He is now the backup for the Philadelphia Eagles. Willis was drafted in the third round by the Tennessee Titans. He was never given much of a chance in Tennessee and is now the backup for the Green Bay Packers.
Final Thoughts
A lot of general managers have done a great job of building rosters but lost their jobs because they can’t land a franchise quarterback. Tannebaum was fired in December 2012 and is now a TV analyst for ESPN. The Jets have been looking for a franchise quarterback ever since. They are not the only ones. I haven’t even mentioned the Chicago Bears quarterback history. That would take up an entire article itself.
Drafting a first-round quarterback is as risky as it gets. When you draft the wrong QB, it sets your franchise back years, and you still need one. Fans expect first-rounders to be the next Peyton Manning or Patrick Mahomes. The ones that hit on their picks look like geniuses. The ones that miss get the ax. GMs know they have to have a franchise QB to win in the current state of the NFL. That is why they continuously reach for them rather than take the best player.
Side Note: In case you were wondering, I excluded the last two drafts from this article. It’s too early to judge those classes. Nine total QBs were taken in the first round in those drafts combined. So far it looks like the Houston Texans and Washington Commanders are the only teams that have for sure found their franchise quarterbacks.
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