Chargers (-1) at Falcons
Justin Herbert and the Chargers have greatly improved on offense of late after a somewhat inauspicious start over the first month and a half of the season. Since Week 8, L.A. has averaged 27.4 points per game, a vast improvement from the 17.6 points per game that they had averaged from Weeks 1 through 7. Defensively, the Chargers remain one of the NFL’s biggest juggernauts as they still lead the league in scoring defense.
The Falcons are coming off their worst game of the season—a 38-6 dismantling at the hands of the Denver Broncos. The Chargers are playing better at the moment. They also have the better quarterback and the better coach.
Chargers win 26-23
Seahawks (PK) at Jets
The Seahawks opened as a 2.0-point favorite in most betting outlets. Now that the line has dropped all the way down to a pick’em, betting Seattle is an even more attractive play. The Seahawks have won back-to-back games against the 49ers and Cardinals. Their defense has been fantastic over the past several weeks, allowing an average of just 11.5 points per game in the two games since their Week 10 bye week.
At this point, backing the Jets to win against anybody is a risky proposition. New York has only won one game all season that took place on a Sunday and that was all the way back in Week 2 against the Titans. Seattle is the better team and they have much more to play for as the current leader of the NFC West.
Seahawks win 23-20
Titans (+6) at Commanders
Tennessee has one of the most underrated defenses in the entire league. Their defense currently ranks 2nd in yards per game (276.4), 3rd in yards per play (5.00), 2nd in 1st downs per game (17.3), and 1st in 3rd down conversion percentage (31.6%). The Titans completely outplayed the Texans in last week’s 32-27 upset win in Houston.
The Commanders, on the hand, have lost three straight games to the Steelers, Eagles, and Cowboys. Washington’s defense has seen a significant dip in play as of late, allowing over 29 points per game during their losing streak. Jayden Daniels has also played poorly, having a TD-INT ratio of 3-3 and averaging just over 222 passing yards per game in the last three games. Washington wins, barely, but fails to cover.
Commanders win 28-27
Buccaneers at Panthers (+6)
The Panthers have sneakily been playing well ever since Bryce Young recaptured the starting QB role from Andy Dalton. They have won two out of three games with the loss coming in a 30-27 nail-biter against the Chiefs. Young has limited his turnovers in recent weeks, throwing just a single interception over the last three games. He has also thrown at least one touchdown pass in four straight games.
Tampa is ranked 29th in total defense (376.2), 28th in yards per play allowed (6.01), and 30th in 1st downs per game allowed (21.8). Their defense is exploitable enough to make this one closer than the spread would indicate.
Buccaneers win 27-24
49ers at Bills (-6.5)
Despite the news that Brock Purdy is expected to play, San Francisco’s injury list remains a mile long. Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, Dre Greenlaw, Deommodore Lenoir, Aaron Banks, and Jordan Elliott have all been ruled out. A weather forecast of heavy snow already puts the Niners at a big disadvantage.
Meanwhile, Buffalo is coming off a bye having won 6 consecutive games. They have also scored 30 or more points in each of their last 5 games. The Bills can’t afford a loss if they want to keep pace with the Chiefs in the race for the AFC’s top seed. Buffalo wins and covers as the better and healthier team.
Bills win 34-24
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