Commanders (-4) at Giants
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders played very well last weekend against the Bears, despite needing a Hail Mary to win the game. Their offense continued to move the ball at will, like it has all season. However, Washington’s defense has shown major improvements over the past two games, holding the Panthers to less than 200 total yards of offense before shutting down Caleb Williams through the first three quarters the following week.
Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense continues to struggle mightily, averaging the 2nd-lowest points per game of any team in the league (14.6). Strangely enough, New York is considerably worse at home where they are 0-4 this season, having only scored a single touchdown over those four games. There continue to be questions as to why the Giants have not benched Daniel Jones for Drew Lock yet, and those inquires should continue after this game.
Commanders win 27-17
Cowboys (+3) at Falcons
As poorly as the Cowboys’ season has gone, they have actually managed to be a really good road team. All of Dallas’ wins this season have come away from home against the Browns, Giants, and Steelers. After a somewhat commendable losing effort to the Niners last week, Big D is in desperate need of a victory to keep pace with the surging Commanders and Eagles.
Atlanta, on the other hand, has a non-existent pass rush which has only generated 6 sacks all season long (easily the lowest in the NFL). The Falcons’ defense is porous enough for Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to exploit at a relatively high frequency. Take the Cowboys to cover and win outright.
Cowboys win 28-27
Broncos (+9.5) at Ravens
The size of this number makes Denver a sneakily attractive bet. Yes, Baltimore is the better team and they will win the game to avoid dropping back-to-back, but can we really place enough trust in their defense to expect them to cover a number this large?
The Broncos have proven that they are not hopeless on offense, hitting at least 28 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Bo Nix also had his best game as a pro in last week’s 28-14 win over the Panthers, finishing with 4 total touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing) and completing 75 percent of his passes with no turnovers. Look for Denver to cover late.
Ravens win 30-23
Lions (-2.5) at Packers
The Lions have steamrolled their competition over the past month, with their offense climbing to the top of the league with 33.4 points per game. Green Bay should prove to be the toughest team Detroit has played thus far. But even so, the matchup appears to be quite favorable for the road team.
Jordan Love’s status is still in question after suffering a groin injury in last week’s game in Jacksonville. Even if Love plays, he is currently tied for the league lead in interceptions thrown (9), while the Lions’ defense is tied for the 2nd-most interceptions forced (10). Detroit is a solid bet regardless of who is under center for the Packers.
Lions win 34-30
Rams (-1) at Seahawks
Even with Puka Nacua questionable, the Rams still manage to be the healthier team. Seattle has already ruled out DK Metcalf and Noah Fant, two of their most reliable targets in the passing game. Injuries aside, the Seahawks have lost 4 of their last 5 games, including last week’s embarrassing blowout at home to the Bills.
L.A. is on extended rest having played last Thursday night. This series has also heavily leaned towards the Rams in recent years. Since Sean McVay took over as the Rams’ head coach in 2017, L.A. is 10-5 against Seattle. This line is basically a pick’em, making the Rams one of the week’s better plays.
Rams win 27-24
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