Buccaneers at Giants (+6)
This spread has increased by several points ever since it was announced that Tommy DeVito would take the starting QB role from Daniel Jones. In reality, the Giants’ offense should be no worse with DeVito under center, and it is likely that they will be somewhat better. Last season, DeVito went 3-3 as a starter, throwing 8 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions with an 89 passer rating. Those are considerably better numbers than Daniel Jones has this season. Through 10 games, Jones has 8 passing touchdowns and 7 interceptions with a passer rating of 79 and an overall record of 2-8.
DeVito will get a fair amount of support from a decent running game combined with rookie sensation Malik Nabers to throw to. The matchup is also very favorable with Tampa’s defense ranking near the bottom of the league almost all major categories. The Buccaneers will win but 6 points is too much.
Buccaneers win 27-24
Patriots at Dolphins (-7)
Miami’s offense has come to life since the return of Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins are averaging just shy of 28 points per game since Tua returned from injury in Week 8, compared to just a meager 10 points per game in the four games Tua missed.
New England, on the other hand, has been held under 20 points in each of their six road games this season. Drake Maye has 9 total turnovers (6 interceptions and 3 fumbles) so far in his rookie campaign which could prove to be troublesome against a Miami defense that has been forcing more turnovers of late (4 in the last 3 games). The Dolphins win another must-win game and cover the spread.
Dolphins win 27-17
Lions (-7.5) at Colts
Detroit has covered the spread in 8 of their 9 wins this season. They lead the league in points per game (33.6) and have the highest point differential in the league by a mile at +159 (the next closest is Buffalo with +106). Last week, they absolutely destroyed the Jaguars in a manner that closely resembled what happens when Alabama or Georgia are going against an FCS team.
The Lions’ offense looks unstoppable at the moment and it doesn’t appear likely that Indy’s lackluster defense is capable of slowing them down. The Colts’ defense currently ranks 28th in yards allowed per game (374.5). They are also 1-5 this season against teams with a winning record. Indy’s offense should keep them in the game for a while but Detroit will ultimately pull away.
Lions win 33-23
Broncos (-6) at Raiders
The Raiders are stuck in a brutal spot. They currently own the NFL’s longest active losing streak with 6 consecutive losses and this week they are matched up against Bo Nix and a Broncos team that completely manhandled the Falcons last week in a 38-6 rout. Denver looks poised to make a playoff push while the Raiders are simply looking ahead to the offseason.
Aside from a lengthy injury list that includes their top two running backs, Vegas’ defense is allowing 31.3 points per game during their 6-game skid. It’s hard to foresee how this game will go their way seeing how Denver’s offense has performed very well this season against teams with a losing record. The Broncos win and cover the spread to maintain control over an AFC Wild Card spot.
Broncos win 30-20
Cardinals (PK) at Seahawks
The Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, having won four straight games and five of their last six. Their defense has gone consecutive games without allowing a touchdown. Now, Arizona is coming off their bye week and facing an incredibly inconsistent Seattle team.
The Seahawks have been an awful home team this season. They have lost four home games in a row and have allowed an average of 30.5 points per game during that stretch. Coming off a huge upset win in San Francisco, Seattle is primed to have a letdown against an Arizona team that is playing like the best team in the NFC West.
Cardinals win 26-23
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