49ers (-6.5) at Buccaneers
Christian McCaffrey is expected to make his season debut after missing the first eight games with Achilles tendinitis. To make things even better, he gets a very favorable matchup against a Buccaneers defense that has been torched all season long. Tampa ranks 28th in points per game allowed (26.8), 30th in yards per game allowed (386.7), and 31st in 1st downs allowed per game (22.1).
San Francisco is the healthiest they have been all season, with Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, and Nick Bosa all expected to play. It should be nothing but smooth sailing for the Niners in what is likely that start of them looking like their usual selves again.
49ers win 31-21
Broncos (+7.5) at Chiefs
Denver continues to feel undervalued by the oddsmakers despite currently owning a winning record and holding one of the three Wild Card spots in the AFC Playoff Picture. Meanwhile, six of Kansas City’s eight wins this season have come by 7 points or less. They also have the lowest point differential (+56) of any team to start 8-0 in NFL history.
The Chiefs’ biggest win this season has been by 13 points. They seldom blow teams out and we should not expect them to do so here against an elite Broncos’ defense that gives up the third-lowest points per game (17.9) and the 6th-lowest yards per game (295.2). Kansas City wins but fails to cover.
Chiefs win 27-21
Steelers (+2.5) at Commanders
Mike Tomlin is 25-6 in his career against rookie quarterbacks, including a win earlier this season against Denver’s Bo Nix. Meanwhile, the Steelers are coming off their bye week, having won three straight games prior. With Russell Wilson under center, Pittsburgh is averaging over 400 yards a game on offense. The trade deadline addition of Mike Williams should also help make their receiving corps more formidable.
Washington, on the other hand, continues to have a beatable defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards per play allowed (5.97), third down conversion rate (41.8%), and redzone efficiency (69.2%). The Commanders will also be hindered on offense with the absence of Brian Robinson Jr., who has already been ruled out. Steelers win on the road.
Steelers win 26-23
Patriots at Bears (-6)
Chicago’s offense has slowed to a crawl in their last two games, but things should get better this week. The Bears are 3-0 at Soldier Field this season, where they average 28 points per game, compared to just over 13 points per game in their four road games. Chicago’s defense has also been stout at home, allowing 18 points or less in each of their home games.
Meanwhile, the Patriots’ offense is atrocious, ranking 30th in points per game (15.7), 32nd in yards per game (264.8), 31st in yards per play (4.68), and 30th in 1st downs per game (16.3). The Bears will end their two-game skid with a comfortable victory.
Bears win 27-16
Dolphins at Rams (-1)
This is a rather questionable line seeing how the Rams are coming off three consecutive victories, while the Dolphins have lost their last three games. L.A.’s offense is finally healthy with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returning to their lineup in last week’s 26-20 OT win in Seattle.
The Rams’ defense, however, has played exceptionally over their winning streak, forcing a total of seven turnovers over the three games. Miami was feisty against Buffalo last week before ultimately succumbing to the better team. Now the Fins have a second straight road game and it is on the opposite coast no less. Take the Rams to win and cover the point.
Rams win 27-24
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