The first Saturday with NFL football in nearly a year will conclude with a classic, age-old rivalry. The Pittsburgh Steelers will visit the Baltimore Ravens in a game that puts playoff positioning, pride, and prestige at stake over a 60-minute span. The Steelers have already clinched a postseason appearance, but the nature of that appearance remains to be seen. With a victory, Baltimore would move into a tie atop the AFC North, making this the most important game of the season thus far for both clubs. There are several excellent opportunities to bet player props in what should be another intensely competitive, fiery contest that has defined the rivalry between these two teams for decades.
1) Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-102)
It’s admittedly intimidating to bet offensive overs against the Steelers, but Jackson is worth a bit of money at these odds. The Ravens’ signal-caller has been lights-out recently, strengthening what was already an MVP-caliber season by throwing at least two touchdowns in each of his last three contests. He’s also cashed this line in four out of six games the Ravens have played on their home field. Jackson seems to have hit a groove along with his pass-catchers, making this an appealing line despite a tough matchup.
In the first meeting between these teams, the Ravens were held to 16 points. This was largely because of how good the Steelers have been against the run. Pittsburgh is the fourth-ranked rush defense in the NFL, allowing only 94.4 yards per game on the ground. Jackson threw the ball 33 times in the first matchup, and it’s likely he’ll be forced to throw for a similar volume or more against one of the best ground defenses in the league. Combined with his high level of play recently, Jackson warrants enough confidence to bet the over.
2) Lamar Jackson Over 28.5 Passing Attempts (-114)
Much of the reason for betting Jackson’s touchdown prop applies here. The Steelers are excellent against the run, a factor that led to Jackson easily clearing this line against Pittsburgh last time out. While Baltimore’s quarterback has only surpassed this line three out of his last five games, it’s important to consider the game scripts of the matchups in which Jackson went under. Week 15 featured a drubbing of the New York Giants that didn’t require much of the passing offense. The other, a primetime game against the Los Angeles Chargers, saw Derrick Henry tote the ball 24 times for 140 yards. Backup running back Justice Hill ripped off another 55 yards on the ground on only four carries. Jackson wasn’t asked to throw because the run game was capable of putting the Chargers away on its own. That won’t be the case against the Steelers, and that will reflect in the box score.
3) Pat Freiermuth Over 36.5 Yards Receiving (-113)
The Steelers have fielded a questionable passing offense for most of the year, and that issue is almost certain to be on display in this game. Star wide receiver George Pickens will miss this game with a hamstring injury, freeing up his target share for the rest of the offense. Other receivers like Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin III will likely benefit from this, but tight end Pat Freiermuth should capitalize more than his peers.
The Ravens have been poor against tight ends throughout the season, notching the 22nd-ranked defense in the NFL against the position. Quarterback Russell Wilson has been peppering Freiermuth with targets lately, including six in last week’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Penn State product has cleared this line in three of his last four contests, and a plus matchup against one of the worst defenses in the league will see him clear it once again.
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