The second leg of the NFL’s Christmas debut will feature yet another critical AFC matchup. The Baltimore Ravens will travel down south to face the Houston Texans in a contest that carries critical playoff implications for both teams. The Ravens, winners of two straight games, need to make it three to continue their pursuit of the AFC North crown. The Pittsburgh Steelers play the Kansas City Chiefs earlier on Christmas Day, so there’s a chance Baltimore will be able to move into first in the division with a win against Houston.
The Texans have already clinched their division, but a win here and a Pittsburgh loss would put them in position to steal the third seed with a Week 18 victory. Both teams need a win and that competitive environment will underscore an important contest that has plenty of fun player props available.
1) Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-140)
This was a recommended line for Baltimore’s Week 15 matchup, and it cashed in the first half. Jackson has been an MVP-caliber quarterback all season long, and now he faces a Texans passing defense that is tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed in the NFL. Houston has also been fairly good at keeping opposing running backs out of the end zone, allowing only nine rushing touchdowns to this point. The Texans are a tailor-made matchup for this prop to cash, and Jackson has cracked the over in seven of his last eight games. The price is a little steep, but there’s good reason to bet this with confidence once again.
2) John Metchie III Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
The injury bug has been particularly cruel to Houston’s wide receivers this season, and that misfortune continued in Week 15 with a campaign-ending injury to young wideout Tank Dell. Dell and coveted offseason acquisition Stefon Diggs are now both on injured reserve for the remainder of the year, leaving the Texans to rely on their depth at the position.
Metchie and Robert Woods will both be called on to play alongside Nico Collins, but Metchie is the better bet of the two by far. When he’s been on the field, quarterback CJ Stroud has been happy to look his way, as evidenced by the fact that Metchie has received three or more targets in four of his last five contests. Dell played in all of those games, so it’s fair to expect more opportunity for Metchie here. His speed and big-play ability ensure that any catch could go the distance, making this an even more enticing play.
Aiding Metchie’s case is the atrocious pass defense he’ll face on Wednesday. The Ravens, who have been excellent against the run, allow an incredible 255 passing yards per game to opponents. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars allow more. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik will very likely lean on his passing game, attacking Baltimore’s most glaring weakness while avoiding the top-ten run defense the Ravens field. That should lead to plenty of looks towards Metchie, who will only need a couple to notch one of his best days of the season.
3) Lamar Jackson Over 15.5 Yards Longest Rush (-120)
While Houston has been excellent at keeping opposing rushers out of the end zone, they haven’t been nearly as good at limiting their yardage. The Texans are just outside the top ten in terms of rushing yardage allowed, and they haven’t been particularly good against mobile quarterbacks either. Granted, they’ve only faced two in Anthony Richardson and Josh Allen, but both of those quarterbacks broke a run 16 yards or longer in all three matchups against Houston.
Jackson is easily the best rushing quarterback in the NFL, and he’s hit the over in three of his last five games. It helps that the Ravens will likely be playing with the lead, lending to more designed run calls while allowing Jackson to take off and keep the clock running on pass calls. It’s a solid setup, and Jackson should be able to capitalize on his opportunities and break a big run like he’s done so many times already.
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