The NFL will nightcap its second Saturday of action with a crucial divisional matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams. The Cardinals, who were eliminated from postseason contention by the Carolina Panthers last week, have a chance to play spoiler in front of a Los Angeles home crowd. With a loss, the Rams would be forced to play a win-and-you’re-in game against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 18 instead of resting their starters and preparing for a playoff run. It’s a hugely important contest to cap off a good Saturday of football, and there are several attractive player props to make some money on.
1) Cooper Kupp Under 4.5 Receptions (+120)
Early in the season, this line was a borderline lock to go over. Wide receiver Puka Nacua’s return and the efficiency of the Rams’ run game has turned it into plus money. Kupp has noticeably been playing second fiddle to Nacua in the passing game, earning 20 targets over the past month compared to Nacua’s 39. The disparity of targets is in part because of the constant double-teams Kupp draws, but it is indicative of the rapport quarterback Matthew Stafford and Nacua have formed. The last time these teams played, Nacua was absent with an injury, and Kupp still only received six targets. It’s fair to expect another low target share in this contest.
Yet another factor stealing opportunities away from Kupp is the game script this contest is likely to follow. The Rams will enter as touchdown favorites against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. It’s likely that Los Angeles plays with the lead for the majority of the game, shifting their offensive playcalling to a more run-heavy approach, keeping the ball out of Stafford’s, and subsequently Kupp’s, hands.
2) Trey McBride Over 6.5 Receptions (-118)
It’s easy to gawk at a reception line as high as this one, especially for a tight end, but McBride has earned the benefit of the doubt. Aside from an anomaly against the Carolina Panthers in which he was thrown to four times, the Colorado State product has been on the receiving end of an insane number of targets. In the four contests leading up to the Carolina game, McBride was targeted 51 times, with a low of ten in a game and a high of 15. Los Angeles has been subpar defending against opposing tight ends, giving up the eighth-most yards per game to the position. The aforementioned game script, combined with the potential absence of starting running back James Conner should force the Cardinals’ offense into plenty of passing opportunities. Sheer volume alone will put McBride in a great position to hit the over on this line by the middle of the third quarter.
3) Kyler Murray Over 21.5 Completions (-120)
This pick is a logical progression from the first two. The Cardinals will likely trail for most of the contest, and Conner’s potential absence (or subpar condition) will force the ball into Murray’s hands more often. Arizona’s style of passing offense also makes this a particularly alluring pick. The Cardinals have been incapable of stretching the field throughout the season, leading Murray to throw checkdown after checkdown to avoid oncoming rushers. Those high-percentage throws obviously lend themselves to a high number of completions, something that Murray has achieved all year.
The Cardinals signal-caller has hit the over on this line in five of his last six games, including two contests in which Arizona was playing with the lead. The Cardinals will trail early, and the run game won’t be as efficient as it has been in past weeks. It will come down to Murray to keep Arizona in this game, and do to it he’ll have to attempt and complete well over 22 passes.
