The New England Patriots (6-4) travel to Minneapolis to take on the Minnesota Vikings (8-2) on Thanksgiving night at U.S Bank Stadium at 8:20 (EST). The Vikings are a 2.5-point favorite and given a 62.6% chance to win according to ESPN’s FPI. With that let’s take a look at what to expect from New England vs. Minnesota.
New England
The Patriots come into this Thanksgiving night clash riding a three-game win streak. The Patriots are coming off of a late 10-3 fourth quarter win over the New York Jets. The Patriots look to keep pace in a tight AFC east race. A win for the Patriots would put them at 7-4 and keep their spot in third place in the east and in a playoff spot. A loss would drop them to 6-5 and likely drop them to fourth in the east and hurt them in the current playoff standings. This is a big game for the Patriots as they try to stay in the hunt for the playoffs.
What To Watch
What I’ll be watching is the Patriots pass rush this week. Last week against the Jets, the Patriots sacked Zach Wilson four times. The Vikings last week gave up seven sacks on just a standard four-man rush. Kirk Cousins was pressured on 61.5% of his drop backs against Dallas. If New England wants to look to win this game, this is how they do it. Copy what Dallas did and you’ll walk out of Minnesota with a big win. The league sack leader in linebacker in Matt Judon will need to follow in Micah Parsons footsteps in the pass rushing efforts.
If the Patriots fail to get a pass rush on the Vikings, they’ll have to look elsewhere to get a stop. With Minnesota’s loaded arsenal of Jefferson, Thielen, Hockenson, and Cook, the Patriots will have to find ways to limit big plays and specifically shut down Jefferson. If the Patriots are unable to do this, it could be a long evening in the North Star state.
Biggest Question
Can the offense step up on a short week in a big game? Scoring three points and needing an punt return to beat the Jets is just not good. Against the Jets, New England had 297 yards of total offense with 13 first downs. The Vikings allow 358.4 yards of total offense (254.8 passing and 103.6 rushing) and 22.9 points per game.
While the Vikings do give up a lot of yards they don’t let teams score a lot (pending the past two weeks when they gave up 30 and 40). New England must finds ways to move the ball and get points when they can. The Patriots cannot afford to do what they did last week and only score three points offensivly. If they do they will absolutely lose this game.
Injuries
The New England Patriots have seven players currently on their injury list.
Questionable:
- Josh Uche (LB) – Hamstring
- Marcus Jones (CB) – Ankle
- DeVante Parker (WR) – Knee
- Anfernee Jennings (LB) – Back
- Isaiah Wynn (OT) – Foot
Doubtful:
- David Andrews (C) – Thigh
Injured Reserve:
- Christian Barmore (DT) – Knee
Center David Andrews is looking to miss a lot of time with a thigh injury. It is likely he could play later in the season or even the playoffs. Uche, Jones, and Parker were all limited participants at practice Monday. Wynn and Jennings’ status for Thursday’s game are currently unknown. Barmore was placed on the IR last Friday with a knee inflammation. He isn’t expected to need surgery and could return after four-games.
Minnesota
The Minnesota Vikings seven-game win streak came to an end on Sunday in a 40-3 rout by Dallas. It was painful for Vikings fans to watch it unfold. Injuries are beginning to hit the team and were one of the many reasons why they lost the game. The Vikings look to not only bounce back but make a statement against a hot Patriots’ team. With a win the Vikings advance to 9-2 and get a quality win against a good team in primetime. A loss would send them into a two-game skid, dropping them to 8-3 and raising a lot of concerns for a team that started off very strong.
What To Watch
After getting torched by the Cowboys on Sunday, I’m watching what the Vikings defense will do and how they will handle a struggling New England offense. Last week Dallas racked up 458 yards of total offense, 23 first downs, and had a time of possession of 37:24.
The Patriots, while not great offensively, can still score and move the ball. New England last week had 297 yards of total offense with 13 first downs and held the ball for 35:30 minutes and scored only three offensive points. The Vikings will need to find a way to do what the Jets did in limiting New England’s offense.
The Patriots this year averaged 21.3 points per game with 335.8 yards of total offense (220.4 passing and 115.4 rushing). The Vikings after last week need to especially make sure not to let New England go off and rack up big yards and score points. If they can limit Mac Jones and the rest of the Patriot offense, it’ll give them the best chance at winning the game.
Biggest Question
Can the offensive line give Kirk Cousins time in the pocket? The Vikings offensive line was terrible against the Cowboys. Kirk Cousins was under siege from the Dallas defense getting sacked seven times all on a standard four-man rush. Cousins was pressured on 61.5% of his drop backs with a four-man rush. Dallas only blitzed four times with a pressure rate of 50%. It just shows how beat up and bad the offensive line played (and how good the Cowboys defensive line is).
New England this season has the 12th highest blitz rate in the league (Dallas was tenth). The Patriots also have the league leader in sacks in linebacker Matt Judon who has 13 sacks on the year. With Christian Darrisaw out with his second concussion in two weeks and Ezra Cleveland also beat up it could be an issue again for the Vikings on Thursday. The Patriots will be providing another hard test on a short week. It’ll prove a lot about the Vikings and their offensive in how they perform Thanksgiving night.
Injuries
The Minnesota Vikings have five players currently on their injury list.
Questionable:
- Andrew Booth Jr. (CB) – Knee
- Za’Darius Smith (LB) – Knee
Out:
- Akayleb Evans (CB) – Concussion
- Dalvin Tomlinson (DT) – Calf
- Christian Darrisaw (OT) – Concussion
The Vikings on Thursday will be without Evans, Tomlinson, and Darrisaw. Tomlinson continues to deal with a calf injury while Evans and Darrisaw both have concussions. The biggest concern is Darrisaw who suffered his second concussion in two weeks. Booth was a non-participant at Monday’s practice. Smith was a limited participant on Monday. The status for Booth and Smith are unknown for Thursday night’s game against the Patriots.
Bold Prediction
My bold prediction for the game is that both teams will combine for 10-plus sacks. Last week Kirk Cousins was sacked seven times and Mac Jones six. Both offensive lines are beat up and are looking to be missing key players. The Vikings will be without LT Christian Darrisaw and Patriots’ center David Andrews is looking to be unavailable to return until late in the season or playoffs. With the injuries and pass rush capabilities on defense, the Vikings and Patriots look to make each other’s quarterbacks’ lives miserable on Thanksgiving night.
Betting
The following betting lines are according to ESPN’s Pick Center.
Spread:
- New England: +2.5
- Minnesota: -2.5
Money Line:
- New England: +130
- Minnesota: -150
Over/Under: 42.5
Where To Watch
New England vs. Minnesota will air on NBC at 8:20 pm (EST) on Thursday. Commentators for the game will be Mike Tirico (play-by-play), Cris Collinsworth (analysis), and Melissa Stark (sideline). Streaming services that have NBC are Peacock, Hulu (with live TV), fubo TV, Sling TV, DirectTV Stream, and Youtube TV.
Prediction
New England vs. Minnesota will be a low scoring defensive bout on Thanksgiving night. If you were hoping for some offense and explosiveness, I’m sorry to disappoint. On the other jand, if you like watching defenses terrorize quarterbacks this will be the game for you. Both offensive lines are beat up and each team’s quarterbacks were sacked six or more times last week. Minnesota and New England will struggle to move the ball offensively early on, only getting field goals in the first half.
New England will score early in the third quarter to take the lead. The Vikings will yet again need another fourth quarter comeback to win this game. Kirk Cousins will get rid of his primetime demons and lead the Vikings on a late drive to get ahead yet again. Minnesota’s defense will step up and stop Mac Jones and the Vikings will bounce back after their loss to Dallas. Minnesota wins 16-13.
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