SMU vs Penn State: Best Bets and Predictions

The Penn State Nittany Lions host the SMU Mustangs in the opening round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Both teams enter the game with identical 11-2 records after losing their conference championship games and are eager to make history in their first-ever playoff appearance. SMU shattered expectations and the 11th-seeded Mustangs are trying to continue that trend with a memorable upset of sixth-seeded Penn State on Saturday at chilly Happy Valley.

SMU Vs Penn State Betting Odds

Moneyline: SMU (+250) vs Penn State (-315).

Spread: SMU +8.5 (-110) vs Penn State -8.5 (-110).

Total O/U: OVER 53.5 (-110) | UNDER 53.5 (-110).

*All odds are subject to change depending on the time of this posting*

SMU Mustangs

SMU went undefeated in ACC play in its first season in the conference. Its two losses are by a combined six points, three to BYU and three to Clemson in the ACC championship game. SMU’s dynamic offense which averages the 5th most points per game in FBS with 39.9, is led by Quarterback Kevin Jennings, who has passed for 3,050 yards, 22 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Brashard Smith has led the rushing attack for SMU, totaling 1,270 yards and 14 scores. He also has 1,814 all-purpose yards, just 29 shy of the school record. While the odds may favor Penn State, the Mustangs’ explosive offense makes them a dangerous underdog. With nothing to lose and everything to gain, SMU is poised to give Penn State all they can handle in their quest for playoff glory.

Mustangs Trends

SMU is 9-1 in their last 10 games; the loss was in the ACC title game.

SMU has covered the Spread in 8 of their last 14 games.

The total points have gone OVER in 8 of their 13 games.

SMU is 5-0 in away games.

Kevin Jennings has thrown for 225+ yards in 9 of his 13 games played.

Kevin Jennings has thrown a touchdown in 9 of his last 10 games.

Brashard Smith has rushed for 50+ yards in all of his 13 games.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State’s two setbacks were in showdowns against Ohio State and Oregon. The Nittany Lions lost by seven to the Buckeyes and eight to the Ducks earlier this month in the Big Ten title game. The Penn State Defense is the strength of this Nittany Lions team. They only allow 282.1 yards a game on average which is the 6th fewest in the country while also giving up the 8th fewest points a game for an average of 16.4. Defensive end Abdul Carter leads the defense, having had 19.5 tackles for loss, including 10 sacks. Carter was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. This Penn State team also has one of the better offensive units that they’ve had under James Franklin. Quarterback Drew Allar has thrown for 2,894 yards, 21 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. They possibly have the nation’s best tight end in Tyler Warren. Warren has 88 catches for 1,062 yards and 10 touchdowns. You can’t ever mention a James Franklin Nittany Lions offense without mentioning the run game. Nicholas Singleton is averaging 6.4 yards a carry, has 838 yards rushing and 7 TDs on 131 carries for the season. Other Penn State running back Kaytron Allen has rushed for 822 yards and 6 TDs on 173 carries.

Nittany Lions Trends

Penn State Has only lost to Oregon and Ohio State.

Penn State is 6-7 against the spread.

The total points have gone UNDER in 7 of the last 13 games.

Penn State has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home.

Drew Allar has thrown 1+ touchdown in 11 of his 13 games.

Nicholas Singleton has rushed for 40+ yards in 10 of his 12 games played.

Best Bets and Alternate Props

I think Penn State has the better matchup in almost every position. I think if Penn State can key in on Brashard Smith and force SMU to have to throw then they will win this game at home. Penn State just put up 37 on Oregon in their conference championship game. I think it could be a higher-scoring game and would not be surprised if the Nittany Lions covered their spread of -8.5.

Penn State Moneyline (-320).

Penn State to cover the alternate spread of -3.5 (-230).

The alternate total points OVER 44.5 (-290).

Brashard Smith 40+ rushing yards (-700).

Kaytron Allen 25+ rushing yards (-450).

Nicholas Singleton 25+ rushing yards (-700).

Drew Allar 1+ passing touchdowns (-700).

Tyler Warren 40+ receiving yards (-600).

Broadcast Information

Date: Saturday, December 21

Time: Noon ET

Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania

TV: TNT

NFL on ESPN – Scores, Stats and Highlights

Follow me on Twitter at @MasonMauk01 for more best bets. To read more of our articles and keep up to date on the latest in college and professional football, click here!