Mountain West expansion?
Conference realignment will not allow a single program or conference to go untouched by its greedy, greasy fingers. The look of conferences in 2026 will be light years away from what college football looked like even 10 years ago. Look back 15 years and it’s even crazier.
There has been a back-and-forth dance with the remnants of the Pac-12 and the Mountain West in a battle for who is going to poach who. Instead of doing the logical thing and merging, the Pac-12 has poached five from the Mountain West. Now, with both conferences sitting at seven members, both need to add.
Mountain West expansion is going to be an interesting one to follow as the conference doesn’t have the allure nor the brand recognition it once had. Sure, the Pac-12 is not THE PAC-12 as it has been, but the shell of the conference poached some of the best the MWC had to offer.
The Mountain West would rather destroy the MAC because they don't want to lose a power struggle with the Pac 12, when everybody knows the MWC and P12 should stop trying to screw over other conferences and just go finally screw each other.
— Tony Gerdeman (@TonyGerdeman) September 27, 2024
As a result, after UNLV and Air Force re-reaffirmed their commitment (with a sizable bonus), the Mountain West expansion project has set its eyes on three programs: Texas State out of the Sun Belt and the MAC’s Northern Illinois and Toledo.
As of reports on the evening of Thursday, September 26, Texas State is being eyed as a full-time member while NIU and Toledo are being considered for football-only members.
Mountain West Expansion Has Set Its Sights on Texas State, Northern Illinois, and Toledo
Texas State began playing football back in 1904 but was only recently promoted to the FBS level. In 2012, the Bobcats joined the Western Athletic Conference (WAC). After the death of the WAC, they joined the Sun Belt, where they’ve resided since 2013.
All time, Texas State owns a 2-8 mark against the remaining seven Mountain West programs.
Toledo and Northern Illinois have been two of the best programs in the MAC over the last couple of decades. Northern Illinois was actually the first MAC program to crash the BCS in 2011 and boasted a Heisman Trophy finalist.
Against the remaining seven Mountain West programs, Toledo owns a 9-3 record all-time. NIU is sporting a 7-3 mark.
Does it Make Sense?
If you didn’t have to worry about anything except football, kind of like creating custom conferences in College Football 25, sure, the moves work. Texas State is an up-and-coming program while Toledo and NIU are established.
For the Mountain West, all three are good moves. It is losing a lot to the Pac-however-many. Adding the Dakota or Montana schools wouldn’t move the needle when it comes to media rights and overall perception.
The question would be would it make sense for the programs? For Texas State, you have to ask, is the path to the College Football Playoff clearer with a weakened Mountain West than it is in the Sun Belt? You’d think not. If the Bobcats win the Sun Belt, it’s incredibly impressive. If the Bobcats win the Mountain West as it could be assembled, would it generate the same hype?
For NIU and Toledo?
Would make zero sense. https://t.co/SiAUAE7g1H
— Dave Briggs (@DBriggsBlade) September 27, 2024
David Briggs from the Toledo Blade gets it. Unless the Mountain West ponies up a ridiculous bonus for the two to join, it does not make much sense at this juncture. The MAC is the epitome of consistency. While the likes of Temple, Marshall, and UMass have come and gone, the 12-team core has been together since 1998 when Buffalo joined. When it comes to full-time members, Marshall was the last school to leave the MAC in 2005.
I think that what this whole thing really needs to bring it all together is the death of another regionally aligned conference for the sake of $20 extra from ESPN. It simply wasn’t stupid enough already https://t.co/46x0HHIX9p
— Patrick Mayhorn (@patrick_mayhorn) September 27, 2024
If the Mountain West wants to preserve the Battle of I-75, as any red-blooded Patriot should, it should include Bowling Green in on the discussions. To round it out, they should look to add another program in the area, whether it ends up a MAC team or not.
Regardless, the MAC (ignoring UMass) is the final regionally-locked conference at the FBS level. Every other conference spans multiple timezones and some like the ACC and Big Ten are coast-to-coast.
Honestly, it feels 50/50 that these programs make the jump. On one hand, it could be viewed as a better shot at the CFP and plenty more money. On the other, is it really worth it to leave America’s conference?
This is likely not over, nor will it be for a while.