There’s still plenty of time to get some action in on the NFL season-long player props market. Some player totals have been taken down or adjusted after the first week of preseason, like Zach Wilson’s passing yards total and Antonio Gibson’s rushing TD total. However, many remain unchanged. As a result, there are still some good totals and odds to lock in before the start of the season. Here’s a couple more season-long player props to take a look at.
WR MICHAEL THOMAS, NO Saints: OVER 5.5 Rec TDs (-120 DK)
Thomas was regarded as one of the NFL’s top wideouts over his first four seasons (2015-19). However, an ankle injury limited him to only seven games in 2020, and he missed 2021 due to surgery on that ankle (plus a setback). Now, the star wideout is healthy and looks like his elite self again.
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If Thomas is anywhere close to his 2019 form, he’ll shatter this prop and all his other ones too. He had 149 receptions for 1,725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in 2019. He’s registered at least six receiving TDs in three out of his four healthy seasons.
Yes, Drew Brees was Thomas’s quarterback during his 2015-19 stretch. However, the QB might not matter. Last year, WR Marquez Callaway had six touchdowns with a combo of Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian and Ian Book as the starting quarterback. Thomas is definitely supplanting Callaway as WR1 this season. This season-long player prop screams OVER.
WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: UNDER 70.5 Receptions (-130 DK)
In three seasons with the Tennessee Titans, Brown never cleared this mark despite having an incredibly high target share percentage. Injuries did play a role in why he didn’t go over the number his last two seasons. However, it’s still hard to see him surpassing this season-long player prop with the Philadelphia Eagles.
There’s only one football, and the Eagles have plenty of mouths to feed. WR DeVonta Smith, WR Quez Watkins, TE Dallas Goedart, RB Miles Sanders, and RB Kenneth Gainwell are all pass-catching threats. Also, passing is not the Eagles’ strength. It’s the ground game.
With Jalen Hurts starting at QB, the Eagles finished 31st in receptions, but finished 1st in rushing yards. Brown’s presence should make them a better passing team. However, it is hard to see the Eagles going away from their statistical strength.
Plus, the Eagles haven’t had a wide receiver register at least 71 receptions since Jordan Matthews (73) in 2016. Sure, that stretch involves Doug Pederson as the HC and Carson Wentz as the starting QB. However, this trend is hard to ignore. Under is a strong possibility.
WR AMON-RA ST. BROWN, Detroit Lions: OVER 78.5 Receptions (-120 DK)
The second-year receiver comes into the 2022 campaign with a lot of momentum. He had 90 receptions in his rookie season with 49 of them coming in the final six games. There’s plenty of evidence that the Lions will continue to generate pass catching opportunities for St. Brown.
First of all, the stats show he was QB Jared Goff’s favorite target. The veteran quarterback targeted St. Brown 119 times last season, which was 35 more than the next player: T.J. Hockenson. It’s hard to see how that target share will drop, especially when the Lions will likely have a similar receiving core for much of 2022.
The one wild card who could steal St. Brown’s targets is WR Jameson Williams. However, the rookie is still “a few months” away from playing his first NFL game as he recovers from a January ACL injury.
Lastly, Pro Football Focus researcher Timo Riske projects the Lions have the third easiest schedule for passing offenses. There’s enough positive indicators to suggest OVER 78.5 receptions is the play.