Miami Dolphins: Tua’s Turmoil
While Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane are electric fantasy options, the injury to Tua Tagovailoa poses a challenge to fantasy success. While the jury is still out on how talented Tagovailoa is behind center for the Dolphins, there is little debate on how valuable he is for fantasy football.
In full PPR scoring, when Tagovailoa played in all 17 games in 2023, Tyreek Hill was the second-overall wide receiver in fantasy football, Raheem Mostert finished as RB4, and De’Von Achane finished as RB23 despite only playing in 11 games.
2024 started along the same path in Week 1 with Hill finishing as WR4, Waddle as WR17, and Achane as RB5. 2024 looked poised to be the year for the Fins to finish with all three fantasy assets outperforming their ADP. Then, once again, Tagovailoa suffered another concussion and has been on IR since Week 3. Because’ of Tagoviola’s injury history, it is unclear when, if ever, he’ll return under center. Yahoo Fantasy Football reported that Dolphin’s head coach made it clear that there is no clear plan for the quarterback’s return.
McDaniel said “the plan hasn’t changed” with Tagovailoa, which implies that the quarterback remains without a clear timeline to return from injured reserve.
Despite Tagovailoa being out indefinitely, the Dolphins still have trhee big-name fantasy stars that fantasy managers have to decide whether to buy or sell.
Tyreek Hill: Buy or Sell
Tyreek Hill is one of the most dynamic and explosive athletes in the NFL. But, unless the Dolphins have a quarterback that can get him the ball, there is little the All-Pro wide receiver can do to help his team or yours. In the first full week without Tagovailoa, Hill posted a pedestrian stat line of three receptions for 40 yards which totaled 7.0 PPR or 5.5 Half PPR points. Managers of Hill are concerned that without Tagovailoa, Hill is a worthless fantasy asset. However, Tyreek Hill is a BUY for your fantasy team.
In 2022, Tagovailoa missed Weeks 6 & 7 and 17 & 18. Excluding Week 18 where Hill did not play a full game, the Cheetah posted lines of seven for 47 in Week 5, 12 for 177 in Week 6, and four for 55 in week 17. Without Tagovailoa, Hill averaged 7.6 receptions for 93 yards, totaling 16.6 PPR points and 13 Half PPR points. The key missing piece, though, is touchdowns: zero.
Right now, the opinion around Hill is at an all-time low with concerns of his production without Tagovailoa and his health never fully returning to a point where he can again strap on his helmet. However, Hill has proven he can produce with a backup quarterback and should have three major opportunities for higher potential in the coming weeks.
First, if Tagovailoa comes back, Hill immediately jumps back up to a top-five fantasy asset. While Tagovailoa’s return is unlikely to happen anytime soon, maybe not even until playoffs, the possibility remains. If you can obtain Hill right now, the Tagovailoa bump is an added bonus.
Second, there are legitimate rumors that the Dolphins will trade for Super Bowl quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. The Dolphins are also rumored to be in contact with the Panthers to trade for former first-overall pick Bryce Young. While neither quarterback option is as exciting as Tagovailoa returning, both options should steady the ship and both are capable of getting the ball in Hill’s hands.
Third, the Dolphins’ schedule becomes a cakewalk for fantasy after this week against the Titans. Starting in Week 5, the Yahoo Fantasy Football shows the Dolphin’s schedule as follows:
New England Patriots: Seventh-best matchup for wide receivers
Bye
Indianapolis Colts: Fifth-best matchup
Buffalo Bills: 27th-best
Los Angeles Rams: Third-best
Las Vegas Raiders: 11th-best
New England again: Seventh-best
Given the advantageous schedule, even if the Dolphins continue with backup quarterbacks, Hill’s ability to dominate bad defenses should be able to subsidize subpar quarterback play.
My advice is to wait for Tyreek Hill to have a poor performance this week against the Tennessee Titans, the third-worst matchup for receivers, and make a trade offer before Week 5. The Tyreek Hill manager will likely be susceptible to a lower offer after back-to-back low scores from Hill and only one more week before a bye week. The period between Week 4 and week 5 is the premier “buy-low” window for superstar receiver Tyreek Hill.
