For this edition of Lucas’ Locks, I’ll be looking into the ACC. I’ll be choosing only the win total bets that I feel confident enough in to place my own money. I’ll be taking the win total numbers from BetMGM, but my advice would be to shop around and get the best number you can find. Now let’s get these locks and go win some money!
Georgia Tech Over/Under 3.5
I’m going to start out with a negative one, I just don’t see 4 or more wins on this schedule for the Yellow Jackets. They get Western Carolina and Duke both at home, so I give them two wins there. Besides that, I’m just not sure where the wins will come from. They open with Clemson, host Ole Miss, play at UCF, at Pitt, get Virginia at home, at FSU, at VT, Miami at home, at UNC, and at Georgia.
While I could see them getting one of those games in an upset bid, I just don’t see them winning two of those games. They’ll likely be the underdog by about a Touchdown for most of them, so it would take a significant upset just to steal one of those games. After losing their best player in Jahmyr Gibbs as a transfer to Alabama, I think the offense will be bad. The defense will also be pretty bad, so I’m comfortable taking the under here.
The Pick: Under 3.5 Wins for GT
Miami Over/Under 8.5 Wins
Count me as a believer in Mario Cristobal. I was impressed with the way he recruited at Oregon and I expect him to take that even a step further at Miami. One thing I haven’t always been super high on with Cristobal is how he tends to run offenses. This year at Miami, I think he’s got one of the best QB’s in the ACC but will he really open up the offense and let Tyler Van Dyke do his thing? I’m not convinced.
Regardless, I do expect them to be good on offense with Josh Gattis coming down from Michigan to run the show. On defense, it always felt like Manny Diaz’s defensive players were in the right places, they just couldn’t tackle. With new DC Kevin Steele coming in, I think they can rectify that issue and put together a good defense as well.
The schedule breaks nicely for them, as they got 8 “Should wins” in my book. Three cupcakes in the non-conference plus they play at Texas A&M, which is think could go either way. They host UNC, I think they’re better than both Virginia schools, and they also get GT and FSU at home. The three toss-ups are at Texas A&M, at Clemson, and Pitt at home. I think they can win one of those games at least, so I’ll take the over 8.5 here.
The Pick: Over 8.5 Wins for Miami
NC State Over/Under 8.5 Wins
As someone who watched every single NC State game last year, I came away fairly impressed. They got one of the best QB’s in the ACC in Devin Leary. They lost what felt like a million LB’s to injury last year and still finished as a Top-15 defense in Scoring D. I don’t love the way they coordinate the offense given the QB they have, but with two potential Top-30 units on both sides of the ball, I think NC State will have a good year.
In non-conference play, they should go 4-0, with the toughest game being home against Texas Tech. Then they travel to Clemson, which I’d mark a loss. the next 7 games after that are all pretty winnable, and to hit this over, I’d only need them to go 5-2 in that stretch. I think they can do that more often than not, so I’ll go over on 8.5.
I do want to temper expectations a little bit, because I think the offensive play-calling is suspect at times. I can’t see them winning over 11+ games in 2022, but I think there’s a solid chance they can get to 10 wins and possible play for the ACC title if things break the right way for them.
The Pick: Over 8.5 Wins for NC State
Syracuse Over/Under 4.5 Wins
This one is really just all about the schedule for me. I only see two very likely wins, with Uconn and Wagner in the non-conference. They have a ridiculously hard stretch in October as they have NC State, Clemson, Notre Dame, and at Pitt. What will they look like as a team following that stretch of games? I’m guessing they’ll be very beat up and with Dino Babers already on a little bit of a hot seat, I think that stretch likely seals his fate. Their last three games are then FSU at home, followed by Wake Forest and BC on the road. I see 8 easy losses on this schedule, so to me, there’s almost no chance they get to a bowl and a low chance they even get to 5 wins.
The Pick: Under 4.5 Wins for Syracuse
Virginia Over/Under 7.5 Wins
Normally, I don’t like betting on teams that I don’t have a good feel for. Virginia is one of those teams this year for me, but under a first year Head Coach in Tony Elliott, I really have no clue what this team will look like in 2022. I like Elliott as a recruiter and he got to learn how to lead a program under Dabo Swinney, so I think it was a fine hire for Virginia to make.
As it relates to this specific version of Cavalier football however; I just can’t find 8 wins on the schedule. I see Richmond, ODU, Syracuse, Duke, and GT as the only “Should Wins” on the schedule. I think Illinois is a bit of a toss up, along with Coastal Carolina, and VT. The rest though I have as fairly likely to be losses, in Louisville, Miami, Pitt, and UNC. So with 5 “Should Wins” and 4 “Likely Losses,” they would need to go 3-0 in toss-us in order to hit this over. It’s possible, I just don’t think it’s very likely so give me the under 7.5 here.
The Pick: Under 7.5 Wins for Virginia
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