For these bets, I’m only selecting the Big Twelve team win totals that I feel the most confident in. These are ones I feel confident enough in to lay my own money on, and I’ll be using BetMGM for the total numbers. Let’s go get these locks!
Iowa State – Over/Under 6.5
This is my favorite play in the big twelve. I’m not always high on Iowa State, but I am especially high on them when they’re being doubted. To me, Matt Campbell is one of the best coaches in the country at developing the players on his roster. They do lose former starting QB Brock Purdy, but he never really played up to his talent level while in Aimes. Hunter Dekkers is set to take over at QB, and I think he can play close to the same level that Purdy provided over the last four seasons. Top WR target Xavier Hutchinson is back, as is slot man Jaylin Noel. They do have to replace focul point Breece Hall, but Campbell seems confident they have another RB ready to step into that role in Jirehl Brock.
The defense should always be good under Campbell. They play a gritty, hard-nosed style of defense while also offering one of the most unique schemes in the country with their mixed 3-3-5 looks. Will McDonald IV returns as the leading sack man in the Big Twelve. Colby Reeder should step in and fill Mike Rose’s vacated LB spot. Matt Campbell says it’s the deepest safety room he’s had yet.
The schedule also breaks nicely for the Cyclones. They get Southeast Missouri and Ohio in the non-conference as easy wins. Kansas is one of their road games in the Big Twelve, and I think they’ll be better than both TCU and Texas Tech as well. With those 5 as “Should wins,” They also got TCU on the road as a winnable game, Texas Tech at home, and West Virginia also at home. To hit the over, I only need 2/3 there which I think is very doable.
The Pick: Over 6.5 Wins for Iowa State
West Virginia – Over/Under 5.5 Wins
This one is more so just a gut feel, as I think with the addition of Georgia transfer JT Daniels, Neal Brown will have the best QB play he’s had in Morgantown. He also brought in Daniels’ former Offensive Coordinator at USC so there’s some system familiarity there as well. I like WVU’s WR room to be among the tops in the Big 12, and they bring back the entire starting OL. If they can just be roughly the same of defense, they could be dangerous in this Big 12 landscape. I think Daniels can give some good play at QB and he guides this team to 6-7 wins, so I’ll go over here as well.
The Pick: Over 5.5 Wins for West Virginia
Kansas – Over/Under 2.5 Wins
I know this isn’t exactly a sexy pick, but the goal is to make money here. I think Kansas has 2 easy wins on the schedule in Tennessee Tech and Duke, and to hit this over they just need to win one more game the rest of the way. I’m not really sure who it’ll be, but I also didn’t see them beating Texas last year. I think they can get someone in an upset in Lance Leipold’s second season at the helm.
The Pick: Over 2.5 Wins for Kansas
Texas – Over/Under 8.5 Wins
With all these overs, I have to take an under somewhere. Unfortunately for Longhorns fans, I do not think this is the year that Texas will be back. I like Ewers and the offense’s potential a lot, as I’d rank them around a top-10 projected offense in 2020. My thing with Texas is that I have zero confidence the defense will be any good this year. They gave up over 30 points per game last year in what I thought was a bad year for Big Twelve QB’s, which isn’t exactly encouraging. I think Texas improves significantly overall from 2021, but 4 wins better? I have my doubts. If I were a Texas fan, I’d even be happy with an 8-4 season which would still hit the under here. 2023 is the year I think Texas could actually be “back,” so I’m comfortable with the under here in 2022.
The Pick: Under 8.5 Wins for Texas
Oklahoma – Over/Under 9 Wins
Now that I’ve made Texas fans angry, it’s time to kiss up to the OU fans. At QB they have transfer Dillon Gabriel from UCF. Offensive Coordinator Jeff Lebby comes over from Ole Miss, and they return a bunch of good pass catchers in Marvin Mims, Theo Wease, and company. They have one of the best Offensive Line coaches in the country still on staff in Bill Bedenbaugh so I’m confident they’ll be good there.
The biggest question mark to me, is how soon can new HC Brent Venables make his impact felt on this defense? Considering he’s one of the best defensive minds in the sport, I think he can really improve upon what they’ve been there the last few seasons. This is stepping out on a limb a little bit, but I’m high on OU in Venables first year as the new HC. I see them winning 10 regular season games and playing for the Big 12 title, so give me the over here.
The Pick: Over 9 Wins for Oklahoma
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