Lamar Jackson is the #1 fantasy quarterback in most scoring formats; but, now is the time to sell your stock and capitalize before his inevitable regression to the mean.
Reigning NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson was not without doubters to begin his 2024 season. But, the Ravens quarterback has done nothing but dominate through five weeks. In 2015, Football Guys performed a study that calculated the “baseline score” for fantasy players at each position. This score served to represent the average weekly score, per position, in fantasy football.
These baselines roughly correspond, on a weekly basis, to QB19, RB34, WR54, and TE21. In terms of points per game, the quarterback baseline was 17.3 ppg
Lamar Jackson: Fantasy Football Must-Trade Candidate
Considering that scoring in the NFL has risen in the last 10 years, the average baseline of 17.3 ppg is a bit outdated. Now, the industry tends to consider an average or quality start from a quarterback as landing between 15-23 points with a great game being more than 23 points, per FantasyPros. So far, this year, Lamar Jackson has scored more than 23 points in four of five weeks; and, his sole “quality game” was still over 20 points. Said simply, Jackson has been dominating for Fantasy Football. But, now is the time to sell.
Lamar Jackson went off at the beginning of his 2023 season as well. In 2023, Jackson scored more than 23 points in three of the first four weeks, similar to his start this season. Then, Jackson fell back to Earth and only scored over 23 in two of his next eight weeks. During that eight-week stretch, not only did Lamar rarely have a great game, but he was under 20 points in five of eight weeks, per FantasyData.com
Those who traded Lamar Jackson after his hot start in 2023 were able to recoup QB1 value and avoid the dip down to an average performer at the position. You should follow the same game plan this year as Lamar is likely to replicate his path again. Jackson has played five average or below-average passing defenses to start the year. This continues for two more weeks, which gives you two weeks to move Lamar during what should continue to be him performing at a high level. Following Jackson’s Week 7 game against Tampa Bay, he plays four of six games against top-10 passing defenses and then has a bye in Week 14.
Lamar Jackson is likely going follow the same trajectory as last year- phenomenal start and mediocre finish. Now is the time to trade him away and capitalize on the #1 QB in fantasy football.