After a disappointing 2-14 season in 2016, the San Francisco 49ers made significant changes by parting ways with head coach Chip Kelly and general manager Trent Baalke. The following offseason, San Francisco introduced the head coach/GM duo of Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch, who continue to hold their positions heading into the upcoming season. Under Shanahan and Lynch, the 49ers have won the NFC West three times in the last five seasons and have reached the Super Bowl twice.
However, despite their recent stretch of success, Lynch has struggled in his position since 2020, according to one recent study. Alongside Mickey Loomis, Monti Ossenfort, Howie Roseman, and Les Snead, Lynch has been one of the worst GMs in the NFL in the past half-decade, per Steven Patton of Patton Analytics.
San Francisco 49ers: Receives Poor Rating From Analytic Site
The San Francisco 49ers house an elite pairing of head coach and general manager Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch. However, in the era of advanced analytics where every minute detail can be thoroughly vetted, one website believes Lynch’s teams are highly overachieved despite him. According to Steven Patton, Lynch is the 23rd-ranked GM heading into next season based on “Net Value Gained through trades since 2020.” Patton points at the 49ers’ inability to replicate the Green Bay Packers model of seamless transition at the quarterback position as a negative towards Lynch.
The best and worst active GMs in terms of Net Value Gained through trades since 2020:
1. Chris Ballard
2. Ryan Poles
3. Chris Grier
4. John Schneider
5. Jason Licht
…
23. John Lynch
24. Monti Ossenfort
25. Howie Roseman
26. Les Snead
27. Mickey Loomis pic.twitter.com/xjJBJgHlWe— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) August 9, 2024
An excerpt from Patton’s research states, “However, we’ve also seen this methodology backfire for the 49ers, who traded significant resources to draft Trey Lance 3rd overall and have him sit behind Jimmy Garoppolo, only for Mr. Irrelevant (Purdy) to take the starting job.”
When delving into answering the question of the inherent value of a pick, Patton concludes that Lynch failed to do what the Green Bay Packers have done twice, namely, draft a quarterback in the first round to sit behind an already established passer. San Francisco traded up in the 2021 NFL Draft with the Miami Dolphins in exchange for their first-round picks in 2021, 2022, and 2023 and their third-round pick in 2022. Lance threw just 102 passes in two seasons with the 49ers. Although the NFC West club whiffed on Lance, other teams, like the Baltimore Ravens (Lamar Jackson), Philadelphia Eagles (Jalen Hurts), and Kansas City Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), flourished with the successor plan.
San Francisco 49ers: Drafts Since 2020
The seventh-round draft pick of Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy could very well save the legacy of John Lynch as an NFL executive. The trade and selection of fellow passer Trey Lance the year prior will undoubtedly go down as one of the worst draft pick trades of all time, but the San Francisco 49ers remain atop the NFL landscape with Purdy under center. Since 2020, the only third-round or better players starting for the NFC West club are wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, kicker Jake Moody, and offensive lineman Aaron Banks.
2020 first-round pick Javon Kinlaw played a significant role for the 49ers last season but will play for the New York Jets in 2024. However, third-round picks Danny Gray, Tyrion Davis-Prince, Trey Sermon, and first-round pick Trey Lance remain the biggest disappointments compared to expended draft capital
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