Jaguars odds-galore Part Two: Player props

What a glorious day! The Jacksonville Jaguars training camp opens today, and Part II to the finale of Jaguar odd-galore is here. In Part I, we covered the team odds, like the Jags’ chances of winning the AFC South. For Part II, we’ll look at the book’s Jags player props for the season. From the savior Trevor Lawrence to the NFL’s best Josh Allen. We’ve got it all!

A strategy for future props is pairing them with the team props. Most books won’t let you parlay these, so you’ll have to take them individually. If you’re bullish on the Jags this season, it makes sense to take the over on their 6.5-win total and take the over on some Trevor Lawrence props. If the Jags are to have a successful season, Lawrence is key to that.

That said, there is a lot to get to, so let’s check out these props!

All odds were taken from DraftKings.

Offensive player props

QB TREVOR LAWRENCE

Trevor Lawrence regular season passing yards 4000.5: Over -110, Under -110

The books are good at what they do; this is why sports gambling is so hard. DK hit this number perfectly. I thought Lawrence would be around 3900.5 yards (And some books have him around there), but here he is at 4000.5.

Last season, Lawrence played all 17 games and threw for 3641 yards, the 17th most in the league. So, if you’re taking the over, you need Lawrence to be 360 yards better than last season. Breaking it down further, Lawrence needs to throw an extra 21.18 yards per game from his 214.18 average in 2021.

It sounds simple enough. Players tend to improve from Year 1 to Year 2. The Jags roster is greatly improved. New Jags head coach Doug Pederson is a massive upgrade over Urban Meyer. (I know some might be tired of bashing on Urban, but it’s cathartic at this point) Pederson also likes to throw the rock around. The Jags’ defense could struggle early on, creating more passing opportunities.

It’s a pass-happy league, but 4K is still an achievement reserved for the top 10-12 passers. There are also some formidable pass defenses on the Jags’ schedule.

The play: Laying a unit and taking the over.   

Trevor Lawrence regular season passing TDs 22.5: Over -110, Under -110

Lawrence threw for just 12 TDs last season, but there were so many missed opportunities. (This is nightmare fuel for Jags fans.)

Touchdowns are hard to predict but even ESPN’s Mike Clay, whose projections lean on the conservative side, has Lawrence throwing for 23 TDs in ’22. I hate to say any of the player props is a gimme but this is a gimme.

Pederson’s QBs Wentz/Foles/Hurts have racked up passing TDs. They might not individually have 20+ TDs, but as an aggregate, they do.   

The play: Laying four units, I’m taking the over with so much confidence that I’m worried. 23 touchdowns is the bare minimum for what Lawrence will put up this season.

Trevor Lawrence regular season interceptions 14.5: Over -110, Under -110

Lawrence threw 17 interceptions last season. Not great. We all know the struggles from ’21, but Lawrence won’t be throwing 15 picks in ’22.

He’ll throw his fair share of interceptions, but we won’t see the recklessness we saw in his rookie year. Pederson does encourage his QBs to take shots, and that’s where some of the picks will come from. Yet, with a better offensive philosophy and scheme in place, we’ll see better decision-making from Lawrence.

The play: Lay two units and take the under.

Trevor Lawrence to lead the league in passing yards +3000

The league leader in passing yards has thrown for 4800-5K+ yards in the past seven seasons. That’d be a massive jump for Lawrence in Year 2, a Peyton Manning-like jump. Lawrence was compared to generational talents like Manning and Andrew Luck coming out of the draft.

Still, this is a longshot, and I’d rather place my money elsewhere.

The play: 30-1 seems aren’t the worst odds and is slightly tempting, but they’re not great either. Lay a half unit at most. Don’t go wild.

Trevor Lawrence to lead the league in passing TDs +7000

Every Jags fan wants the best for Lawrence, but this is a bridge too far for this season. Next season with another year in Pederson’s system and familiarity with his receivers, count me in.   

The play: Stay away.

Trevor Lawrence to lead the league in interceptions +1000

Rude, just rude.

Lawrence is the second favorite to lead the league in interceptions (Jet Zach Wilson is the favorite). He tied for the lead league last season with Matthew Stafford. However, without delving back into Urban bashing, Lawrence might have double-digit picks, but he won’t be leading the league.

The play: Scroll right by it.

RB TRAVIS ETIENNE JR.

Travis Etienne Jr. regular season rushing yards 705.5: Over -115, Under -115

There’s a lot to be excited about in Jacksonville. Lawrence is at the forefront of the Jags’ excitement, but Travis Etienne is not far behind.

Etienne lost his rookie season to a Lisfranc injury in a preseason game vs. the Saints. The road to recovery has gone exceptionally well for Etienne. He was a full participant in OTAs, posted impressive workout videos, and drew a lot of praise from Pederson.

We haven’t seen an official word on Etienne’s timetable to return or if he’s been given the green light to be a full participant in training camp. We’ll know more once training camp begins, but the speculation is that he’ll be healthy and the starting back in Week 1.

James Robinson will eat into Etienne’s workload, but I see this duo working like the Browns RB tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Frustrating for fantasy but shouldn’t impact this prop much and could keep Etienne healthier as the season wears on.

Pederson likes using multi-tool backs. With the Eagles and under Pederson in 2019 and 2020, Miles Sanders ran for 818 and 867 yards, respectively. Eclipsing 705.5 rushing yards this season feels like a lock.

The play: Laying four units and taking the over.

Travis Etienne Jr. regular season rushing TDs 5.5: Over -115, Under -115

As much as I like Etienne’s rushing yards total, I’m not liking his rushing TD prop; seven TDs is high.

Robinson won’t cut into Etienne’s yards, but he’ll undoubtedly cut into his TD potential. Touchdowns are about opportunity, with Robinson expected to be the red zone back. That makes it even more difficult for Etienne to hit the over on this prop.

The play: Laying two units and taking the under.

Travis Etienne Jr. regular season rushing and receiving yards 1025.5: Over -130, Under +100

I dislike laying money on a vig higher than -125, but exceptions exist. Etienne is such an exception.

Pederson likes dynamic backs, guys who can catch the ball and run between and outside the tackles. Those two Miles Sanders seasons with Pederson where he ran for 818 and 867 yards. He also caught 50 passes for 509 yards in ’19 and 28 for 197 in ’20. Putting him over 1k combined yards both seasons.

It’s always nice to have easy player props and Etienne will deliver on this one.

The play: Laying three units and taking the over, even though the juice is pricey.

Travis Etienne Jr. to lead the league in rushing +10000 (Robinson at +10000)

It’s a no for both Etienne and Robinson. They’ll cut into each other’s workload too much to be a league leader.

The play: Stay away

Travis Etienne Jr. to lead the league in rushing TDs +4000 (Robinson at +10000)

Etienne won’t even lead his team in rushing touchdowns, so no on him. It sounds like Robinson will miss too many games to be among the leaders.

The play: Stay away

WR CHRISTIAN KIRK

Christian Kirk regular season receiving yards 825.5: Over -115, Under -115

Getting it out of the way before we go further, this isn’t about whether or not Kirk deserved his four-year, $72 million deal. We’re talking about his player props.

Now, 826 yards might seem high, but Kirk has a good shot at clearing this. During Pederson’s time in Philly, Nelson Agholor had some of his best seasons working out of the slot. Kirk is a more versatile version of Agholor, he’ll work out of the slot, but he’ll be moved around the formation a lot.

’21 was a career year for Kirk with 77 receptions, 982 yards and 5 TDs. Going to the Jags, he’s WR1 and the focal point for the Jags’ air attack. 

The play: Laying two units and taking the over.

Christian Kirk regular season receiving TDs 5.5: Over -110, Under -120

While I’m bullish on the over on Kirk’s receiving yards. I can’t say I’m as confident on the over for his TD prop.

As Jacksonville’s WR1, it should create more opportunities for him for receptions and yards, but touchdowns are harder to get behind. If Kirk hits the over on this, he’ll need several big-play touchdowns, which are difficult to predict.

Plus, I don’t expect Kirk to be the top option when the Jags get in the red zone. James Robinson, Evan Engram, Etienne out of the backfield, Marvin Jones and even Laviska Shenault are the better options in that part of the field. The receivers in that group are bigger than Kirk, and the data shows that size is a factor in the red zone. 

The play: Laying two units and taking the under.

Christian Kirk regular season receptions 69.5: Over -115, Under -115

Back to being bullish, I love the over on this prop. My love for this is the same as the over on Kirk’s receiving yards prop. 

ESPN’s Field Yates says it year in and year out; follow the money. The Jags didn’t reset the WR market just to have Kirk be a rando. He’s here to be that guy for the Jags. He’s going to eat this season.

The play: Laying three units and taking the over. 

Christian Kirk to lead the league in receiving yards +5000 (Laviska Shenault +15000, Marvin Jones Jr. +20000, Evan Engram +20000) 

& Christian Kirk to lead the league in receptions +6000 (Laviska Shenault +9000, Marvin Jones Jr. +10000, Evan Engram +15000)

As you’ve noticed, I’m not too fond of these long shots. However, I’m intrigued by Kirk’s odds here. Both in leading the league in yards and receptions. Just a little, though. 

It’s weird to say, but hang with me; what if the Jags are on to something? What if Kirk is a diamond in the rough and was overshadowed/misused in Arizona? If that’s true and he balls out, he could have a Stefon Diggs-like impact when the latter got traded to Buffalo.

I’m also contemplating Engram here too. Of all of these player props, this is my most irrational but favorite of the group. Pederson loves his TEs, and Engram is as talented as they come. He’s clearly underperformed for his career, and while he is the cause for some of that. He was not in the best of situations in New York. It bears mentioning that he had Jason Garrett and Freddie Kitchens as OCs last season. Rough stuff.

The play: Lay at most a quarter unit on Kirk or Engram.

Christian Kirk to lead the league in receiving TDs +5000 (Laviska Shenault +10000, Marvin Jones Jr. +10000, Evan Engram +15000)

Kirk won’t lead the Jags in receiving TDs, so how’d he ever lead the league? 

The play: Stay away.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER PROPS

Travon Walker regular season sacks 6.25: Over -125, Under -105

If Walker is the unicorn athlete that Jags DC Mike Caldwell said he is, here’s another layup among the player props. Walker should get some one-on-one matchups once things go live. If he can take advantage of that early, this bet could cash by midseason. 

The play: Laying two units and taking the over. 

Foyesade Oluokun regular season tackles and assists 133.5: Over -115, Under -115

Oluokun reminds me of another Jags linebacker great who came to the team via free agency, Mike Peterson. 

Like Oluokun, Peterson was a tackling machine and all over the field. Oluokun was brought in to make plays and to be the Mike LB that Jags have missed since the days of Paul Posluszny.

With the Falcons last season, Oluokun led the league in combined tackles (solo + assisted) with 192. He’s a beast in the run game and can cover in the passing game. 

The play: Laying three units and taking the over.

Travon Walker to lead the league in sacks +10000 (Josh Allen +10000)

I love Walker and hope he is the elite pass rusher that all Jags fans expect him to be. I’m not there yet on him being sack leader just yet. 

The play: Stay away. 

Foyesade Oluokun to lead the league in tackles +1000 (Devin Lloyd +5000)

There hasn’t been a repeat combined tackling champ this century. Not the best of odds. So if you’re going to lay money on a Jag for this prop, Lloyd is the best option. Especially if you expect him to have a Darrius Leonard-type rookie year.

The play: Stay away unless you’d like to sprinkle a quarter unit on Lloyd.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER PROPS

MVP: Lawrence +8000, Etienne +30000, Robinson +30000, Jones +50000, Kirk +50000, Shenault Jr. +50000

I fully expect the Jags to have a bounce-back season, just not that great of a season to have an MVP candidate.

The play: Stay away.

Offensive player of the year: Lawrence +10000, Etienne +10000, Robinson +15000, Jones +15000, Kirk +15000, Shenault Jr. +50000

If you think Kirk will have that Stefon Diggs-like season, you might as well have a play on this. Even if Kirk has that kind of season, it doesn’t guarantee a win, but he’s at least in the running. 

The play: A quarter unit at most on Kirk.

Defensive player of the year: Josh Allen +5000, Oluokun +25000

Even though Oluokun will rack up tackles, the DPOY historically favors pass rushers and shutdown corners. This is why Allen is the better bet. If Allen unlocks consistency to his game and each week plays closer to the level he did against Buffalo last season, look out. He’ll be in the running for this award.

The play: Come on, you know the drill, a quarter unit at most on Allen.

Defensive rookie of the year: Walker +750, Lloyd +1000

Both players have a shot at winning by their odds alone, but I’m leaning toward Lloyd. If Walker racks up double-digit sacks and leads the Jags and all rookies in sacks, he’d be a heavy favorite. But I can also see the narrative forming, “Well, of course, he got all those sacks because Josh Allen was on the other side.” Narratives influence award races, and I guarantee you Walker will get dinged for that even though it’s dumb.

This is why I like Lloyd slightly better. If he bursts onto the scene as Darius Leonard did in his rookie year, this is a great value at 10-1.

Linebackers aren’t penalized as much playing alongside other great backers as edge rushers are playing with other great edge guys.

The play: I’d be fine with a unit on Lloyd and even a unit on Walker.

Comeback player of the year: Etienne +2500

The comeback player of the year is the toughest of awards to predict. It is purely driven by narrative and how everyone feels about a certain player. If you’re looking for a good long shot in the player props, this is the best of the group.  

If Etienne has the big season everyone is hoping for, that should at least put him in the running. It could be a tough field with Derrick Henry, Jameis Winston, Christian McCaffery, Michael Thomas, Mitch Trubisky and even Baker Mayfield in the mix. However, if Etienne grabs hold of the narrative, things will look good.

The play: Half to three-quarters of a unit on Etienne.

Coach of the year: Doug Pederson +1800

We’ve been about player props, well, here’s a coach prop. Here’s a trend for coach of the year, quick turnarounds. If you can turn a loser into a playoff contender, you’re in the hunt for this award, if not a lock. We have two recent examples of this, the 2020 Browns with Kevin Stefanski and the 2017 Rams with Sean McVay. Both teams closely resemble the position Jacksonville is in. Both had awful clown show seasons. They hired new coaches; boom, they’re in the playoffs with said new coach. Considering how bad last season was for Jacksonville, a winning record, not even playoffs, could seal it for Pederson.

If you believe the Jags will bounce back this season and contend for a playoff spot, you might as well take Pederson. 

The play: Laying two units on Pederson.