The Detroit Lions moved to 12-1 after a victory over their division rivals Green Bay Packers. This came off the aggressive decision by Dan Campbell to go for it on 4th and 1 with 43 seconds remaining. Detroit ran out the clock, and Jake Bates knocked in a 35-yard game-winning field goal.
Many fans are praising Campbell for his ambitious fourth-down play-calling. But would there be praise if David Montgomery had been stuffed and Detroit turned the ball back to Green Bay in a pivotal divisional game? It’s easy to call a coach a genius if they convert the fourth down and an idiot if they get stopped.
This Lions team is arguably the best Detroit has ever seen, as every sports book lists them as the Super Bowl favorite.
NFC Championship
Last season’s NFC Championship game was the first team Dan Campbell ever received serious backlash for his aggressive nature.
In that game, Detroit led 24-7 at halftime after Campbell went against his aggressive nature and settled for a field goal from the three-yard line. It seemed that Campbell had found a middle ground for how aggressive he had to be. But in the second half, that theory went out the window.
Up 24-10 with 7:04 remaining in the third quarter, the Lions went for a 4th and 2 from the 49ers 28-yard line. Josh Reynolds dropped a catchable ball, and the Lions turned the ball over on downs, rather than attempting a 45-yard field to retake a three-possession lead.
That stop seemed to flip the momentum of the game, and Detroit now trailed 27-24 with just under ten minutes. Once again, the Lions found themselves in a fourth-down situation, and Dan Campbell rolled the dice. It was. 4th and 3 from the 49ers 30-yard line, and Goff under-threw Amon-Ra St. Brown 20 yards downfield. Instead of potentially tying the game up with a 47-yard field goal, Detroit gave the ball back to a red-hot 49ers offense.
After San Fransisco went down and scored a touchdown, Detroit had the ball down ten with just over three minutes remaining. Detroit managed the drive down to the two-yard line in about two minutes, with all three over their timeouts remaining. But instead of throwing the ball and keeping the clock stopped, Campbell elected to run the ball and had to burn a timeout after Montgomery got stuffed. The Lions would then get their lone fourth down conversion of the day to make the game 34-31. But since Campbell used a timeout, the game went down to an onside kick, which San Fransisco recovered, ending the game.
Now, this game wasn’t decided by those three decisions. Jahmyr Gibbs had a costly fumble, and Josh Reynolds had some timely drops. Butt ultimately, Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness led to the 49ers getting back into the game to eventually take the lead, and at the end of the game, Campbell’s decision made Detroit’s Super Bowl dream come down to an onside kick.
No Hesitation From Dan Campbell
That brutal loss to the 49ers in last season’s playoffs did not deter Campbell whatsoever in 2024. There are only two teams who have gone for it on fourth down 20 or more times in 2024, and the Lions are one of them going for it 22 times this season. Not only have the Lions continued to play aggressively, but they’ve also been successful, having the fifth-highest fourth down conversion rate at 68.2%.
The Lions and Dan Campbell gambling on fourth downs was a great way to turn Detroit into a real contender. When you have a less talented team, there needs to be risks taken to compete. But the Lions aren’t that underdog team anymore. Conversely the Lions might have the best team in football.
Every week, the Lions are fielding the better team, so there’s an argument to be made against this ultra-aggressive offense. When your team is converting fourth downs, life is great and can result in blowout wins, like the Lions have had this year. But on the flip side if you miss a few conversions, you let the other team back into the game, as seen in last year’s NFC Championship. If other contenders like the Eagles, Bills, and Chiefs get extra possessions, they will make it tough on a solid Lions defense.
The Case for Aggressiveness
Now, the Detroit Lions do have the roster behind them to have success on fourth down. Jared Goff is one of the most efficient passers, and their backfield, nicknamed “Sonic and Knuckles,” leads the fourth-highest rushing attack in the league.
“Knuckles,” or David Montgomery, is one of the best power running backs in football, and that, combined with an elite offensive line, is a recipe for success on fourth and short. So what’s the happy middle ground the Lions need to almost guarantee success?
Nick Saban chimed in with his thoughts on the Pat McAfee show saying,
“Well I always thought if we had a one yard or less, and I believed in our players. And I think Dan Campbell is showing he believes in his players, that they are going to make half a yard, a yard, or whatever in that situation.”
He defended Campbell’s decision and even promoted the aggressive style.
“I always felt like if you if can win the game on offense, do it.”
Nick Saban reacts to the Lions gutsy fourth down play with @PatMcAfeeShow 📺 pic.twitter.com/GAw0A5nyAc
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) December 6, 2024
Finding the Middle Ground
With Detroit entering the home stretch of the regular season, they find themselves in a favorable playoff position. They have a 1.5 game lead on the Eagles for the first overall seed and a 1.5 game lead on Minnesota for the NFC North.
Dan Campbell needs to find the happy middle ground for to finally reach the promised land. Detroit’s brand of football has been bold, and they can’t go away from that. But if Campbell doesn’t know when to walk away from the table, the Lions could end up gambling away the Lombardi Trophy.
This might be the best chance Detroit will have at a ring, ever. Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson is the hottest head coach candidate for 2025, and Defensive Coordinator Aaron Glenn is sure to interview for a few head coaching jobs. Jared Goff is 30 and his $212 million contract will kick in soon along with many other big contracts.
With the Kansas City Chiefs looking like one of the worst 11-1 teams ever, the window is as wide open as it may ever be. Campbell in the Lions will continue to take chances, they just need to know when the risk outweighs the reward.
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