Ding, ding! Herbert vs Tua: round two. The two franchise QB’s were drafted back to back in 2020, beginning a debate that’s gone back and forth ever since – who’s the better QB? Well, tomorrow night will add to the debate, and I’m all for it. As a Chargers fan, I’ll be honest – when the Bolts drafted the lanky blonde out of Oregon, I thought he was 100% bust material. Even in college, there were many times when Herbert didn’t look that good – and that’s just in the Pac-10, let alone the powerhouse SEC where Tua hailed.
Personally, I thought us Chargers fans would have to wait another 3-5 years for the next heir apparent to Brees & Rivers. But then, on that fateful Sunday where Tyrod Taylor went down against the Chiefs – we all caught a glimpse of the juggernaut that is number 10. It was a revelation. Even 2 full years in – it still is…
On the other end of the spectrum, it took a lot more time for Dolphins faithful to see the potential of Tua – the former Heisman winner out of the Saban-ran dynasty. It was a rough going early on, but now, thanks to Mike McDaniel – Tagovailoa is an MVP candidate, and the Dolphins are rolling.
The Showdown
Ironically, the Herbert vs Tua matchup actually takes a back seat in the storyline of Sunday night’s match-up. In fact, there’s really only one main theme: can the 6-6 Chargers beat the 8-4 Dolphins to stay alive in the AFC playoff picture? And that’s a tricky one, because even as an ultra-optimist, I’m not so sure they can.
That’s right, I said it. It pains me to say it, but it’s the truth. Honestly, I would’ve given the Bolts a better shot against the Chiefs or 49ers in the past few weeks. But against a Dolphins team with 2 star speedsters at receiver, an emerging mastermind of a Head Coach, and a solid defense – I’m scared.
The crux of the Chargers defense has been the run game for the past 5 years – but luckily, against Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert, that’s the least of my worries. What scares me is the trio of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Tua Tagovailoa at the height of his powers. I can already see it now, Tyreek going for 150+, Waddle for 100+, and Tua proving to the whole country that he was the right choice at number 5 overall.
The Other Showdown
If you asked who the better quarterback was a year ago – 9/10 would’ve said Justin Herbert, and justifiably so. The head-to-head stats (even with this year included) are nearly 70% in Herbert’s favor. Furthermore, it was looking like Justin Herbert and the Chargers were on the short list of Super Bowl favorites! But, the season thus far has told a completely different narrative…
Tua Tagovailoa is (admittedly) playing really good football – just like Tyreek told us all before the season started; he’s damn accurate. And it’s not like he’s just running a west coast system that boosts his completion percentage with 5 yard slants & outs. No, he’s firing on all cylinders. Short, medium, deep, in, out. It’s amazing, so amazing that he’s even doing it after getting his lights knocked out… twice.
Sure, this year’s stats are undoubtedly skewed since Tua has had Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to play with, whereas Herbert has had a little bit of Mike Williams, a little bit of Keenan Allen, and a lot of Joshua Palmer and De’Andre Carter. No disrespect, that just is what it is. Funny enough, it was once Tua who had the much worse surrounding cast; making this debate that much more difficult.
As it stands now, I’d say that it’s hard to judge who’s “better”, given that not only has there been a fluctuation in surrounding cast – but also because they play much differently; as Herbert is more of a 40 pass attempt+ guy who (typically) isn’t afraid to take the deep shots. Tua, on the other hand, does less – but is more efficient. To me, the debate on these two is quite even – and tomorrow night’s game will be an obvious yardstick to measure the two… for now.
The Actual Showdown
We could go back and forth about Herbert vs Tua all day – but the prime-time game with playoff implications is really all it comes down to. Bragging rights between these two will be served on a national level, and their teams are riding on this. So, how can the Chargers pull this one off?
Utilize Justin Herbert. That’s how. Who would’ve thought? In all seriousness, the Chargers actually have a slightly better pass defense than the Dolphins, and with the way the Bolts’ defense has been playing lately; number 10 will need to have himself one hell of a game. And how can he do that? Two things:
Don’t be afraid to use his legs, and don’t be afraid to take the deep shots.
That’s it. Easier said than done, sure – but that’s really it. If you look at Justin Herbert’s (and the Chargers’) greatest games – they involve both of those factors. They’ve strayed away from both of those elements thus far this year, and the results speak for themselves. If they don’t, I’m calling for Joe Lombardi’s head.
On the other side of the game – the Chargers’ defense must put pressure on Tua. All jokes aside, the dude has had a couple of major injuries this year – how can he not have at least a little bit of haunting memories? Seriously, Khalil Mack and company will need to get home against Tua, because giving Tyreek and Waddle more than 3 seconds down the field is a recipe for disaster. It’s seldom that 2022 Tua makes a mistake, and giving him time to work decreases those chances even more. It goes without saying – but Asante Samuel Jr., Bryce Callahan, and Michael Davis will need to put the clamps on Hill/Waddle.
Luckily, the Chargers’ DB’s have been playing surprisingly well this year; so as long as the Chargers can stop two lackluster Miami running backs, put some pressure on Tua, and hit on a deep shot or two – the Bolts can actually walk away with a win. Bottom line, I’ll give the Chargers a 40% chance to win.
And if they do, the rest of the season gets a lot more interesting; and Justin Herbert proves himself once again as the better QB between the two 2020 first-rounders. I’m scared, but equally excited…
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