Each week until FCS Selection Sunday (Nov. 20), I’ll release my take on the 24-team FCS Playoff picture situation.
It takes into account eight national seeds who get a first-round bye, along with at-large candidates. Lastly, conferences that may not have a top 20 team (yet), are indicated — but like March Madness hoops, as they get a conf. title bid. See the full projection below.
When it’s all said and done and this country is wolfing down some turkey in November? We will have 24 FCS programs aiming for a national title. The rest (unless they’re in the HBCUs) will be looking towards 2023.
So let’s take a look below at what could happen:
FCS OVER FBS DATABASE – 20 YEAR LOOK: How has the FCS done each year?
WEEK FOUR FCS RECAP: How did this weekend affect the playoff picture?
FCS PODCAST – BMAC AND THE NACH – NOW ON APPLE PODCASTS
THE SEEDING TAKE:
There’s no question, the seeding “take” is top-heavy. It seems like it always is. The Missouri Valley Football Conference and Big Sky Conference dominate my projection heading into October — but then again these two conferences will have to devour each other in conference play to survive in the next six weeks — and some of these teams will disappear.
Remember, this piece is based on “today”, not projections for mid-November. We’re not guessing the next two months’ worth of results, we’re judging based on what has happened as of today.
THE CONF-AUTOMATIC BID TAKE:
We’re mentioning the teams that look best to us as of Sep. 25. They haven’t had many — if any — head-to-head matchups yet in conference play. Not everything is clear, but these are the ones who’ve looked most impressive to me so far. Projections are below.
THE AT-LARGE CONF-AUTOMATIC TAKE:
After the eight seeds with the first-round byes and the automatic bids for conference championships, the remainder of the playoff spots go to at-large teams.
JUST MISSED TAKE:
This is very, very interchangeable at this juncture. SE Louisiana had a nice win over Incarnate Word this week, but at the same time, UIW beat SIU out of the MVFC by a ton, and also beat an FBS team (Nevada). They both have strong playoff arguments if they don’t win the Southland Conference.
Elon and Furman are doing some good things, and they deserve a look, too.
Clear as mud? That’s why it takes 24+ hours to come up with a piece like this.
BMAC’S FCS PLAYOFF TAKE (Sept 25):
Below, you’ll see my 24-team FCS postseason projection. There are transition-state schools currently in the FCS that have accepted an invitation to move “up” to the FBS (like Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State) and are ineligible, and there are schools that have recently moved “up” to the FCS that are ineligible. The schools listed below are all eligible — and their conferences are eligible — for the FCS playoffs.
And remember “vs. FCS” means how they’ve done in games that matter to the playoff committee. If a team has lost to an FBS? That result gets ignore. If it won against an FBS, that’s a massive playoff poker chip, thus the “FBS Win?” category.
SEEDING PROJ. | AFTER 4 WEEKS (SEPT 25) | REC | vs FCS | CONF | FBS WIN? |
1 | NDSU | 3-1 | 3-0 | MVFC | |
2 | Montana | 4-0 | 4-0 | Big Sky | |
3 | Weber State | 4-0 | 2-0+ | Big Sky | YES (g5) |
4 | SDSU | 3-1 | 3-0 | MVFC | |
5 | Montana State | 3-1 | 3-0 | Big Sky | |
6 | Delaware | 4-0 | 3-0+ | CAA | YES (g5) |
7 | Missouri State | 2-2 | 2-1 | MVFC | |
8 | Sac. State | 3-0 | 2-0+ | Big Sky | YES (g5) |
CONFERENCE AUTO BIDS | |||||
BIG SOUTH | Campbell | 1-2 | 1-1 | Big South | |
PATRIOT | Holy Cross | 4-0 | 3-0+ | Patriot | YES (g5) |
PIONEER | Davidson | 3-1 | 1-Jan | Pioneer | |
ASUN-WAC | Austin Peay | 4-1 | 4-0 | ASUN-WAC | |
NEC | St. Francis (PA) | 2-2 | 2-1 | Pioneer | |
OVC | SEMO | 3-1 | 3-0 | OVC | |
SOUTHLAND | Incarnate Word | 3-1 | 2-1+ | Southland | YES (g5) |
SOCON | Chattanooga | 3-1 | 3-0 | SoCon | |
AT-LARGE BIDS | |||||
AT LARGE 1 | William & Mary | 3-1 | 2-1+ | CAA | YES (g5) |
AT LARGE 2 | East. Kentucky | 2-2 | 1-2+ | ASUN-WAC | YES (g5) |
AT LARGE 3 | Southern Illinois | 2-2 | 1-2+ | MVFC | YES (P5) |
AT LARGE 4 | UC Davis | 1-3 | 1-2 | Big Sky | |
AT LARGE 5 | Mercer | 3-1 | 3-0 | SoCon | |
LAST THREE IN | |||||
LAST THREE IN | SE Louisiana | 2-2 | 2-0 | Southland | |
LAST THREE IN | Elon | 3-1 | 3-0 | CAA | |
LAST THREE IN | Furman | 3-1 | 2-0 | SoCon | |
FIRST THREE OUT | |||||
JUST MISSED | Samford | 3-1 | 3-0 | SoCon | |
JUST MISSED | Fordham | 3-1 | 3-0 | Patriot | |
JUST MISSED | Richmond | 3-1 | 3-0 | CAA |