All Fantasy Football analysis and statistics are from a 12 Team PPR Format. Rounds 1-5.
Round 1: Christian McCaffrey RB Panthers
Listen, I understand I may get burnt on this one. I also have a personal vendetta against CMC since I have drafted him the last two years and the guy has essentially missed two seasons. There is no problem with talent, scheme, situation or anything with CMC. He’s clearly one of the best running backs in the NFL and fantasy football when (Key Word: when) healthy. If he goes on to play all 17 games this year, I’m going to be wrong about this. I just can’t get burnt again. At the 1.03 he’s being picked as one of the top players again. He has played in 8 full games since the start of the 2020 season. While injuries can be unlucky and can happen to anyone, McCaffrey’s workload may be catching up to him finally. He is the Panthers entire offense almost when he plays. He runs the ball 15-20 times a game and adds upwards of 5-10 receptions each game. He’s a total workhorse and worthy of this pick when healthy. I just can’t trust his health anymore and you really aren’t getting much of a discount on McCaffrey. If you want to take the risk go ahead, but don’t be shocked if you are without a first round pick at some point this year.
Round 2: Javonte Williams RB Broncos
I actually think if Melvin Gordon didn’t resign with the Broncos Javonte may have made my favorite picks each round article. That’s the problem here. I have no question that Javonte Williams is a talented back. He very well may be the lead guy in this backfield some point this year. Melvin Gordon is still around though and was pretty productive last year. The Broncos resigned Gordon to a 1 yr/$2.5 million dollar deal this offseason. They don’t have a ton committed to him and this very well may be his last year in Denver. That’s also exactly why they still will use him. They most likely want to keep Javonte’s legs fresh for the future as well as deploying a two headed monster in the backfield. I just wrote about how Christian McCaffrey’s workload may be the reason why he’s getting injured so much recently. The Broncos may want to extend Javonte Williams career as long as they can while still getting solid production from him in the meantime. That doesn’t mean he’s not going to play, but he may not receive 25 touches a game. I do think Williams takes over the 1a role in this backfield this year and Melvin Gordon will take more of a backseat, but Gordon will be used. One of Gordon’s best skill sets is his nose for the end zone. There may be drives where Williams gets them down the field and then Melvin Gordon comes in to vulture a touchdown. One of the worst feelings in fantasy football. So, while I have high hopes for Javonte Williams and his future career I do think we are about a year too early on the official breakout. A second round pick here is too rich for me.
Round 3: A.J. Brown WR Eagles
This one pains me as I am a huge A.J. Brown fan. Sadly, his landing spot is just not ideal for fantasy football. He goes from one of the heavier rushing attacks to the heaviest rushing attack in football. The Eagles ran the ball the most out of any team last year with 49.8% of their plays being runs. You can argue that A.J. Brown still was elite and produced on the Titans who were 2nd in rushing percentage. Fair, and I’ll add that I believe this was a very good move for the Eagles as a football team. Just not for fantasy football. Brown has proven to be one of the best players after the catch but also being one of the better deep threat/play action WR’s. Now he comes to Philadelphia to play with Jalen Hurts which is a clear downgrade from Tannehill. Hurts had a worse completion percentage, less yards, and less touchdowns last season. Combine that with some other viable options as they just drafted former heisman winner Devonta Smith last year and Dallas Goedert. Brown really never had major competition for targets in Tennessee. Add that all together in a low volume passing offense and I just don’t think Brown is worth a 3rd round pick. He will have his games, but it may be an inconsistent campaign from him as Hurts hasn’t fully proven himself as a passer yet.
Round 4: DeAndre Hopkins
This isn’t going to even take long to explain. DeAndre Hopkins is slated to miss the first six games of the season due to suspension. Hopkins most likely would have been a mid/late 2nd round pick if he weren’t going to miss any games. Now he’s sitting in the late 4th round even. There’s still SO many good players in the 4th round and especially at the WR position which is deep. Don’t tank your draft by drafting Dhop in the 4th round. You are already starting at a huge disadvantage as he will be sitting on your bench till week 7 and who knows the state of your team by then. You also are picking him as a foundational piece of your team as he will be one of your top four picks. It simply is not worth it. There is plenty of value on the board still at this spot and I can promise you that drafting Dhop this early will only lead to regret. If you love Hopkins and want him on your team this year take the route of trading for him closer to his return. Don’t waste your time drafting Hopkins this year at this price.
Round 5: Damien Harris
I was shocked to see Damien Harris being drafted this high. Harris is coming off by far his best season of his young career with 929 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns. I describe Harris’s running style as ‘mean’. He’ll put his head down and just grind for as many extra yards possible. He’s a very fun running back to watch and for how the Patriots play he fits right in. The problem is his draft price. You’re asking me to invest the first pick of the 5th round on a one dimensional running back. Granted running backs do get thin and he may be in the tier above before it gets really thin. But, there are still good options available near where Harris is being drafted. Harris just doesn’t catch the football and in PPR not having that capability really hurts. Another problem with Harris is he’s not the clear lead dog in this backfield. The Patriots have always been notorious for using a plethora of RB’s. Rhamondre Stevenson showed he was fully capable of handing the workload if called upon. James White is coming back from injury (yes he is still in the league). While Harris may be the preferred option in this backfield, he’s not going to dominate touches. He also scored 15 rushing touchdowns last year. I’m just gonna guess and assume there’s regression to come with that number as that is a very hard number to replicate. All in all I believe Harris will be productive and be a solid player for NE, but the price of 5.01 is not enticing to me.