Our Fantasy Flops series rolls on to the AFC North. The goal is to outline what players will produce less than is desired at their current ADP.
AFC NORTH:
Mark Andrews – TE Baltimore Ravens
I am irrationally bullish on the Baltimore Ravens offense in 2022, so this is one of my toughest calls in the series.
The Baltimore Ravens will be more run-heavy in 2022–think back to how they ran their offense in 2019 and 2020.
Mark Andrews had his career season the same year the Ravens’ passing volume spiked. If their volume regresses to the norm, then Mark Andrews’ production will regress.
Joe Mixon – RB Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon remains the top back to own in the Cincinnati Bengals offense, but it certainly sounds like the coaching staff wants a more committee approach heading into 2022.
Chris Evans appears to be in line for the 3rd-down role as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. The lack of pass-catching upside for Joe Mixon hinders his fantasy value.
Joe Mixon found the end zone 16 times in 2021. Mixon’s previous high was nine.
For a player drafted at the Round 1/Round 2 turn, I expect some regression back to the Round 2/Round 3 range.
Amari Cooper – WR Cleveland Browns
With the dark cloud hanging over Deshaun Watson and the uncertainty of his availability for the 2022 season–how can you feel good about the Browns’ passing game?
Amari Cooper is on the downside of his career, and switching teams is a cause for concern. Switching from a pass-heavy team to a team that has traditionally been more run-heavy, is another concern.
Amari Cooper’s draft stock has dropped from the 5th to the 6th round, so drafters are adjusting appropriately. I still wouldn’t draft him at that price tag. Don’t catch a falling knife.
Najee Harris – RB Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris was a fantasy football sensation during his freshman season. Whereas Big Ben was a detriment to wide receivers Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, I believe his willingness to dump the ball off in the short-range benefited Najee Harris.
Word out of Pittsburgh is that for the first time in a long time, the Steelers will spare their lead back. Much of the fantasy value of Najee Harris remains tied to volume. If the volume decreases, so will his value. Fantasy managers are drafting Najee Harris as a 1st round pick, and I don’t believe they should be.
