We begin our Fantasy Flops series in the AFC East. The goal is to outline what players will underperform versus their ADP.
AFC EAST:
James Cook – RB Buffalo Bills
If you recall from our Fantasy Flames article, I am bullish on Devin Singletary. I know that’s not the cool thing to say in fantasy football circles, but it’s true.
Fantasy football managers are attracted to the new, shiny toy. We call this the “new hotness” theory. Fantasy managers gravitate toward who James Cook COULD be. James Cook does bring an attractive skill set. We know how important a pass-catcher is at the RB position, so I get the attraction to James Cook.
We don’t hate players, but we do hate ADPs. The Buffalo Bills view James Cook as a change of pace and their 3rd down running back. I don’t feel that Cook is a threat to Devin Singletary as the lead back in Buffalo.
The hype has gotten a bit out of control, as fantasy managers draft James Cook BEFORE Devin Singletary in some drafts. Cook will provide you with moderate fantasy production, but he is overvalued at his current ADP.
Tyreek Hill – WR Miami Dolphins
The Kansas City Chiefs offense and Tyreek Hill were a match made in heaven. Tyreek Hill, traded in the off-season to the Miami Dolphins, is a hit to his fantasy value–how much is the question.
Jaylen Waddle complicates things for Tyreek Hill. Waddle and Hill are similar players. It is reasonable to assume Waddle will take targets away from Hill.
We have not even discussed the downgrade at the quarterback position from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa. Any way you slice it, Tyreek Hill is leaving a more explosive offense with a far superior quarterback.
Tyreek Hill, selected in the late 2nd round range in most fantasy drafts, is overpriced by a round.
Damien Harris – RB New England Patriots
Damien Harris is a strong candidate for regression in 2022. The New England Patriots had a more conservative approach in 2021, as they eased in a rookie quarterback in Mac Jones.
As I stated in our Fantasy Flames article, I believe the Patriots will be more pass-heavy in 2022, which naturally hurts the value of Damien Harris.
The Patriots have a talented back in Rhamondre Stevenson behind Damien Harris on the depth chart, and they went out and drafted TWO running backs in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Patriots still have pass-catching dynamo James White on the roster.
Elijah Moore – WR New York Jets
Placing Elijah Moore in my Fantasy Flops article may draw the ire of many in the fantasy community. To reiterate, we don’t hate players, but we do hate ADPs.
Elijah Moore is a great player. I loved him coming out of Ole Miss, and I had a 1st round grade on him. Moore showed us explosive talent in the 2nd half of the 2021 season. I understand the appeal in fantasy.
The problem is fantasy managers are drafting Elijah Moore in the early 6th round of fantasy leagues. There is a real possibility that Elijah Moore is not on the field in two WR sets. Those roles may be for Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson.
There is also a growing sense around the NFL that the New York Jets want to be one of the more run-heavy teams in the league. Robert Saleh will bring the San Francisco type of presence to New York. If that is the case, there are even fewer opportunities for the receivers, especially a slot receiver like Elijah Moore.
The arrows point in the wrong direction for Elijah Moore. I will pass on a 6th round price tag.