Draft Dilemma: Justin Jefferson vs. Ja’Marr Chase

Fantasy Football season is upon us, and many drafters will face a draft dilemma. What side they choose will ultimately determine whether they draft a team that will languish in obscurity or one that can take home the fantasy title. Today, Jesse Raymond and I kick off our Draft Dilemma series with a battle of two former LSU Tiger teammates: Justin Jefferson vs. Ja’Marr Chase

Justin Jefferson (Ryan Broyles)

I wish to begin our first Draft Dilemma with a disclaimer: you cannot go wrong drafting Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase. They are both talented, young receivers in offenses that we like. Both players can carry your team to a fantasy title.

With that out of the way, here is why you should choose Justin Jefferson over Ja’Marr Chase: consistency.

If you are drafting a Best Ball team and want to take Chase over Jefferson, be my guest. Chase offers arguably the highest upside of any receiver on the slate in any given week. We are talking about a season-long PPR league. Winning every week is paramount to getting into your league playoffs–you want a consistent performer.

Justin Jefferson had 27 more receptions on 40 additional targets than Ja’Marr Chase in 2021. Breaking that down weekly, Jefferson receives 2.5 more targets every game.

We have not even mentioned that Kevin O’ Connell is bringing in a more prolific offense that we believe to be significantly more pass-happy. Justin Jefferson stated earlier this off-season that the Vikings will deploy him in the Cooper Kupp role. If you recall, Cooper Kupp was targeted 190 times in 2021. I am bringing this up to suggest that amount of work that Justin Jefferson receives could increase dramatically.

Ja’Marr Chase lived on the big play last season. What if those big plays regressed in 2022? What if Tee Higgins is healthy all season long and Chase has more target competition? Ask yourself this question: who is more likely to face target competition? Chase, who has another emerging superstar in Tee Higgins on the opposite side of the field, or Jefferson, who has an aging veteran with injury history in Adam Thielen?

Chase scored 13 touchdowns in 2021–not much room for growth. Jefferson scored ten–would it shock you if he added another 2-3 scores?

Again, between these two superstar receivers, you are splitting hairs. If forced to choose, I will take the receiver I know I can trust week in and week out, Justin Jefferson.

Ja’Marr Chase (Jesse Raymond)

Chase is a phenomenal talent on par with that of Jefferson. Jefferson had the 4th most fantasy points per game in 2021, but Chase had the 5th most. While Jefferson is a PPR monster, he lacks the Touchdown upside of Chase.

In 2021 Chase had three more TDs, on 27 fewer receptions. Ja’Marr has the better QB with the better offensive line for 2022, according to PFF. Joe Burrow was sacked 51 times in 2021. More time for Burrow in the pocket means more time for Chase to get open downfield. He is in a Bengals offense that showed an incredible willingness to let Burrow sling the ball downfield for big plays.

The Vikings have a new Head Coach, bringing in a new offensive system. We assume that this will be a boost to Jefferson, but we can never be sure. On top of that, the Vikings have Adam Thielen. In the last two seasons, Adam Thielen scored more touchdowns than Justin Jefferson while playing fewer games.

Ja’Marr Chase is entering his second season in the NFL in 2022. The second season for elite wide receivers is considered the breakout season. Jefferson and Chase were both phenomenal in their rookie seasons. Jefferson still saw an increase in his second year, and I expect the same for Chase. He could end the season as the WR1 in fantasy football for 2022.

The Wide Receiver position will almost always be inconsistent in fantasy football. Few receivers break that mold, but it is generally a volatile position. You can get consistency from other players, but Ja’Marr Chase provides a week-winning upside. Ja’Marr Chase is the ultimate up-side play.