Playoff Lenny found success on the field in recent years with Tampa. Fournette had his best fantasy football finish to date in 2021, finishing as the RB5 in PPR leagues. However, there is a great deal of concern surrounding Fournette in 2022. Multiple reports that Lenny came into training camp this year over sized weighing nearly 260 pounds.
Along with that, Fournette skipped out on OTAs much the dismay of the coaching staff. This is also isn’t Bruce Arians team anymore. After Arians retirement, the Bucs turn to head coach Todd Bowles to lead their team into 2022. Expect Bowles to give OC Byron Leftwich more freedom with the playbook this year.
The Bucs also decided to use major draft capital on third round pick Rachaad White.
On top of this, the Bucs also resigned veteran pass catching back Giovani Bernard. Bernard is sure to take up more volume in the pass catching game in 2022 if he can stay healthy after missing several games due to injury. A big reason Fournette was featured in the passing game in 2021 was due to Bernard’s battle with injuries. This kept their supposed pass catching back off the field and led to more opportunities for Fournette.
In fantasy football, after a a player far exceeds expectations one year many players expect them to repeat. This is often times wrong. We’ve seen time and time again that players who come off a massive season regress the following. Take for example Lamar Jackson after his MVP season, where he finished as QB1. The following season in 2020 Lamar fell to QB10 and didn’t even come close to returning on his ADP.
Along with third rounder rookie Rachaad White, there are lots of new players on the Bucs that could steal fantasy production this year. Young standout WR Russell Gage has been brought in and ever heard of Julio Jones? These big WRs are sure to soak up some of the red zone chances that we’d normally be expecting Lenny get. Combine this with Gio Bernard being healthy there could be far fewer chances.
There’s more players being involved in the offense for Tom Brady to experiment with. A natural regression a we in that we are unlikely to see a repeat of a non pass catching RB getting 69 receptions on the season again. This offense could also be far weaker without options Brady trusts to get them up the field for goal line opportunities. Gronk and AB are long gone. Chris Godwin still is not fully healthy, meaning even with Tom Brady under center, this offense is going to take some time to adapt. If you truly believe in Lenny, try to at least get him below his current ADP as he is currently going end of second/top of the third round in mock drafts.
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Leonard Fournette is 100% worth his cost. He will be a solid RB for your team that you can get in the second round. Tom Brady is not going to trust a rookie immediately and Bernard will take limited work. I don’t see that being a competing backfield like Fournette had with Ronald Jones previously. He is a Top 12 Half PPR Running Back: https://gridironheroics.com/2022-top-12-half-ppr-rankings-for-running-backs/