The NFL DFS Week 1 weekend slate is finally here, and players can rejoice!
I will provide my cash core plays, along with value and cheap plays, just like last season.
And I will continue to have a recap of the week before with a breakdown of my lineup. You have to be accountable with your wins and losses in my opinion. Hopefully, we have more wins during the season, and maybe a big win or two.
The plays are based on DraftKings’ pricing and its full PPR scoring.
I will be providing my main cash and GPP lineups (after early game inactives are announced) on my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/fantasyfbguru
Onto the plays of the week!
Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City ($7,700): A word of the wise about Mahomes – he’s a better DFS scorer on the road than at home. Mahomes scores more than 4.5 points better on the road vs. average defenses than at home, according to Bob Lung’s Consistency Guide.
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis ($5,500)
Davis Mills, Houston ($5,300)
Daniel Jones, NY Giants ($5,000)
I have a feeling the Indianapolis-Houston game is going to be shootout. The Colts are without their defensive leader Shaquille Leonard, who is recovering from offseason back surgery. And the Colts have said they want to lesser the load on RB Jonathan Taylor, meaning more passing from the offense. Jones has averaged just less than 25 points on the road against bad pass defenses.
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina ($8,500): The checklist for starting CMC is simple:
- He’s healthy – check.
- He’s less than 10K – check.
Jam him in your lineups wherever you can!
DeAndre Swift, Detroit ($6,800)
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh ($6,400)
Antonio Gibson, Washington ($5,800)
Swift averages just more than 17.5 points a game vs. bottom 10 run defenses, and he had five catches vs. the Eagles last year. Harris had a mixed bag in his two games against the Bengals last year, but he averages just less than 21 points vs. middle of the road run defenses. Gibson is also good back vs. middle of the road defenses, averaging 19.6 points in his career.
Mike Davis, Baltimore ($4,400)
Ameer Abdullah, Las Vegas ($4,200)
Davis appears to be in line to be the starter with J.K. Dobbins not fully healthy for the Ravens, and the Jets were ranked 32nd vs. the run last season. If the Raiders are trailing, Abdullah could see plenty of targets to return value.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota ($7,800): Jefferson averaged 7 receptions, more than 100 yards and a touchdown a game last year vs. the Packers. And he’s played well vs. top 10 pass defenses in his career.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis ($5,500)
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore ($5,300)
D.J. Chark, Detroit ($4,800)
Pittman just needs to score 13.75 points to return fire symbol value on DraftKings, and with his shining new QB, Pittman should surpass that number easily. Bateman has a small sample size (1 game) playing against top 10 pass defenses but he did score 17.3 points in that game. Chark has played against three top 10 pass defenses in the past three seasons and he’s averaged 16.77 points in those games.
Randall Cobb, Green Bay ($3,400)
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay ($3,000)
Justin Watson, Kansas City ($3,000)
Wan’dale Robinson, NY Giants ($3,000)
Aaron Rodgers needs a WR to throw to other than his 1-2 punch at running back, and Cobb and Doubs fit that role. Just remember what Mahomes said, “Every single week, it’s going to be someone different.” Then why not Watson, who led the Chiefs in receiving yards in the preseason. Robinson gets to face a Titans’ secondary that ranked 31st last season.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City ($6,600): In the last three seasons, Kelce has faced a top 10 pass defense vs. TEs seven times. All seven times he has produced a TE1 performance, averaging 19.89 points a game. That’s enough evidence for me!
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia ($4,500): Goedert has averaged more than 15.0 points the last three seasons vs. bottom 10 defenses vs. TEs. That’s more than enough value to give you a fire symbol beside his name on Sunday.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville ($3,500): I know Engram didn’t show much in the preseason, but I’m holding out hope Doug Pederson’s offense still focuses on its TE.
Davis Mills, Nico Colliins, Michael Pittman Jr.
Daniel Jones, Kadarius Toney, Wan’Dale Robinson
Patrick Mahomes, Greg Dortch, Justin Watson, Travis Kelce
Check out my Week 1 rankings!
Also check out Boris’ NFL DFS breakdown!
Follow me on Twitter at @fantasyfbguru2!
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