Hey all and welcome to the DFS Divisional GPP Breakdown. I was wrong about a few things last week, so I’m looking forward to righting the ship here.
There are 3 slates “featured” on DraftKings for the DFS Divisional Weekend. I’m only interested in playing the DFS Divisional Saturday – Sunday slate that has all four games.
Let’s get into it!
DFS Divisional GPP Ownership Report
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- Christian McCaffrey – 38.3%
- Stefon Diggs – 31.2%
- Ja’Marr Chase – 30.1%
- Saquon Barkley – 29.8%
- Josh Allen – 28.5%
- Buffalo Bills – 26.5%
- Travis Etienne – 25.6%
- Deebo Samuel – 25.3%
- Zay Jones – 24.4%
- Jerick McKinnon – 24.2%
- Miles Sanders – 24.1%
- Joe Mixon – 22.5%
- Gabe Davis – 22.1%
- Jalen Hurts – 22%
- Evan Engram / Travis Kelce / Dallas Goedert – 21%- 22%
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs
With a team implied total of nearly 31 points, we simply have to consider Mahomes and his weapons for DFS Divisional GPPs. The Chiefs are among the league leaders in all the passing metrics including things like 1st half pass rate and pass rate when leading. Mahomes probably has the safest floor on the DFS Divisional slate, and he certainly has potential to reach his ceiling in this matchup.
In the meeting from November 13 with the Jaguars, Patrick Mahomes threw for over 300 yards and 4 TDs, parceling them out among four different receivers. That’s the tough thing with the Chiefs: how much they have been spreading the ball around this season. Kelce and McKinnon are probably the more dependable options and therefore more highly owned. Following them is JuJu, then Toney and MVS. A triple stack might not be out of the question.
What I really like about this matchup is each team’s pace of play score. The Chiefs run the 3rd most plays per game in the league while the Jags are 9th. There is a chance of many plays in this game, and, as such, a higher likelihood of a shootout.
I like the Jags receiving options, but I dislike Etienne here. Jacksonville likely has to play from behind and Etienne hasn’t caught more than 3 passes in a game all season long. Read that sentence again.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants significantly adjusted their defensive schemes against the Vikings, and that’s a huge reason why they moved on to the DFS Divisional round. Last week CB Adoree’ Jackson returned to the lineup and held Justin Jefferson to under 50 yards receiving. I’d expect a similar plan of attack against Eagles WR1 AJ Brown. These two used to be teammates, so I’m sure they are both quite familiar with one another.
The Giants are a run funnel defense, but the Vikings, just like their regular season track record, were unable to fully commit to rushing the ball. That could change with running QB Jalen Hurts and his RB stable. If we travel back to Week 14, we can see that Miles Sanders had 144 rush yards and 2 TDs while Hurts put up 77 rushing as well. Noted Giants killer Boston Scott added 33 rush yards and a score. Throw out parts of the Week 18 matchup which did not feature a motivated Giants squad, but did have Scott finding the end zone against the Gmen yet again.
The pace of this game, if things go the Giants’ way, will be slow. If it goes the Eagles’ way, they will jump out quickly and establish a multi-touchdown lead, then slow the game down. The likelihood of a shootout here is not high. In fact, I like the Giants chances of keeping it close and limiting the Eagles offense.
One thing though, the Giants weren’t all that great vs the TE position during the regular season (6th most points allowed to the position), and TJ Hockenson went 10 for 129 against them last week.
The Eagles defensive front is healthy, something they haven’t had the luxury of at times this past season. Saquon Barkley has not been all that efficient, so a repeat of him ending up in the optimal lineup for DFS Divisional contests might be a stretch.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
Hello two teams who don’t want to run the football!
Since Week 8 of the NFL regular season when CB Chidobe Awuzie tore his ACL, teams have begun to throw more and more on the Bengals. Specifically, CBs Cam Taylor-Britt and Eli Apple have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to outside WRs over the last 4 weeks of the season.
Much of this has not shown up in box scores because two of those games were against the running Ravens, one game got cancelled, and yet another was against the running Browns with a rusty Deshaun Watson at the helm. The Bills are a throwing team, so targets to Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs should be incoming. That probably doesn’t come as a surprise, but the point is that a ceiling outing by one of them could potentially happen, which would be wonderful in GPPs for the DFS Divisional slate. I fully anticipate someone like John Brown, Isaiah McKenzie, Khalil Shakir, or Cole Beasley to ruin that though.
On the Bengals side, they throw the ball more than any other team in the league (since Week 2), but the reason we haven’t seen the Bengals show up all that much in optimal lineups is because they are not ruining plays at a high rate. Part of their goal is to take time in between plays and therefore take time off the clock, thus limiting their overall fantasy output. In order to find Burrow stacks in the optimal lineup for the DFS Divisional Round, we are going to need them to abandon that by getting down early or be extremely efficient on offense.
The good news is that them being down is possible, especially if the Bills get the ball first and go up by multiple scores. Additionally, the Bengals are quite banged up on their offensive line, so Burrow may have to revert to his 2021 self in which he had to get rid of the football much quicker because his line was allowing him to be sacked at a high rate. Ultimately, it will be the Bills offensive success that will determine the game script environment that prevails here. There are many things that are attractive in this matchup for DFS Divisional GPP purposes:
- Allen has one of the deeper depth of target averages at 16 yards per target.
- The Bills go for it a ton on 4th down.
- Both teams throw frequently on 1st down.
- Ja’Marr Chase has 8 straight games with 7 or more catches!
- Tyler Boyd has an exploitable slot matchup.
- As mentioned earlier, they don’t run the ball well and both defenses are better at stopping the run than the pass.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
The Cowboys want to run the ball, and they play at a high pace, but this is the best run defense in the league. The 49ers have shown that they can be thrown on and have allowed big days, particularly to star receivers like DaVante Adams and DK Metcalf. CeeDee Lamb spends a good amount of time operating out of the slot, so matchups against Jimmie Ward, whom I highlighted last week, are likely in play. Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup and Noah Brown are in play as well, though I wouldn’t go overboard on them on the DFS Divisional slate.
The Cowboys have been very efficient in the red zone, and the 49ers have allowed fantasy points to the TE position at a top 10 rate over the final month of the regular season. If you think the Boys make a few trips to the red zone, it’s quite possible they find the end zone when they get there. This also suggests that this game might be close, which I initially scoffed at when I saw the spread.
The 49ers have not lost a game since Brock Purdy took over. They haven’t even trailed late in games. They have a balanced attack on offense, so I would expect that to continue. CMC’s price is way too low in my humble opinion, which would probably mean he is chalky, as the ownership projections suggest, on the DFS Divisional slate. The Cowboys are 6th worst in explosive plays (rushing yards of 10 or more and passing yards or 20 or more) allowed, so CMC, Deebo and perhaps even Aiyuk (26% target share since Purdy took over) and Kittle could see an explosive play or two. The Boys are 3rd best vs the TE position though.
Where I’m at for the DFS Divisional 4 Game Slate
- It might be necessary to have at least 1 Chief and 1 Jaguar pass catcher in all lineups. Kirk and Zay Jones are my personal priorities on the Jags. Jacksonville bleeds production to the middle of the field, which makes Kelce and JuJu appealing on the other side and in Chiefs stacks. Kadarius Toney also operates out of the slot in some formations.
- The Jags allow the 2nd most receptions to RBs. Hello, Jerick McKinnon.
- I’m double and triple stacking Mahomes, I might even play 2 Chiefs in non-Mahomes stacks in my DFS Divisional contests.
- When the Chargers achieved pressure on Lawrence last week, he was 2 for 9, sacked twice and threw 2 picks. I’d expect the Chiefs defense to focus on this, which puts the Chief DST in play should they get a defensive score.
- I’m not interested in too many RBs in this DFS Divisional week. The 49ers, Eagles, and Jerick McKinnon are about it. I could see Tony Pollard perhaps hitting a big play or two, so maybe I’ll include him in my DFS Divisional lineups.
- Joe Burrow looks low owned. I’ll be double stacking him and it running it back with a Bill or two.
Thanks for checking out my DFS Divisional Weekend breakdown. Good luck in your DFS Divisional contests!
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