Denver Broncos: Keys to a Playoff Upset

The Denver Broncos have ended their nine-year playoff drought after a 38-0 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. This comes as a shock to many after the Broncos’ win total was set at 5.5, and many media outlets claimed the Broncos had the worst roster in football. But the Broncos and rookie quarterback Bo Nix prevailed, and now Denver is set to take on the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card round.

Despite what happens in Buffalo, Sean Payton’s Broncos have had a successful season. The Bills open as a nine-point favorite, the second-largest spread of Wild Card weekend. But as Tony Romo mentioned, there’s nothing scarier in the playoffs than a team playing with house money. If the Broncos are to pull off a major upset, here’s how it will happen.

Get Bo Nix Going

Obviously if Denver is going to pull off the upset, Bo Nix is going to need to play well. Fortunately for the Broncos, the Bills achilles heel has been their secondary. The Bill’s have the 24th ranked pass defense, and that weakness has been exposed in Buffalo’s losses.

In their three losses with starters, the Bills have allowed an average of 269 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. They also allowed those quarterbacks to complete an average of 74.4% of those passes. Denver needs to come out and try to get Nix going right away.

Sean Payton has a reputation of being a conservative play caller. But in games where Payton let Nix throw the ball early and often resulted in some of Bo’s best performances. If Nix is confident early on he could pick apart this weak Bill’s secondary.

Bo’s arm isn’t the only key though. For a team the struggles to run the ball, designed QB runs will be important. If Bo can force the Bills to drop eight defenders into coverage he’ll have open running lanes all day, and it will important that Sean Payton keeps Bobby Babich’s defense honest.

Josh Allen

According. to Pro Football Focus Josh Allen ranks first among all quarterbacks when he has a clean pocket. So is the solution to bring pressure against Allen? Nope, because Allen has 17 touchdowns against the blitz this year, which is also the most in the NFL. On top of that Allen is only sacked 8% of the time when he’s pressured. So the question stands, to blitz or not to blitz?

Well Denver can’t just let Allen have a clean pocket all game. But if they are as blitz-happy as they’ve been this year Allen will do exactly what Lamar Jackson did to Denver, make huge plays out of structure. So the solution, make Allen stay inside the pocket. Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper have an important job, they need to set the edge, but not over pursue. Denver should be in a QB-contain defense for the majority of the game. That way Vance Joseph gives his elite secondary a chance to create turnovers.

Now that is easier said than done, but Josh Allen can play reckless at times. Even though Allen had a career low six interceptions this season, he still had 15 turnover worthy throws. He will give the Broncos opportunities, they just need to capitalize on them. If Denver can’t create turnovers on Sunday they stand almost no chance. As weird as it sounds, the Broncos need to force Josh Allen to throw, and a lot, if they want to pull off an upset.

Defending the Slot

While Denver’s secondary has been elite this year, their biggest issue has been defending the slot. Josh Allen’s favorite target, Khalil Shakir, lines up as the slot receiver 70% of the time. That rate is the ninth highest in the NFL.

The simple answer would be put Patrick Surtain against him. But there’s only been one two games where Surtain took significant reps in the slot. Both of those games were against the Las Vegas Raiders. In those games Surtain guarded Brock Bowers because Vance Joseph trusted Denver’s other corners against the Raider’s targets. In this game Denver won’t have that luxury this game. With boundary receivers like Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman, Denver needs Surtain to stay on the outside.

In order to lock up the middle of the field, Denver needs to play a sort of pho double team. Ja’Quan McMillian will be the primary slot corner, but the Broncos can give him some much needed help. As mentioned earlier the Broncos will need to run QB contain on defense, and that includes a spy on Josh Allen. Whether the spy is a linebacker or safety, he can double as a mid field zone defender.

In this defense McMillian gets interior help, which allows him to play freely and do what he does best, bait quarterbacks into throws. McMillain is a natural ball hawk, and if he can play more freely, he’ll be given that chance. He was a huge factor in Denver’s win over Buffalo last season, and once again he’ll be the X-Factor in this Wild Card matchup.

Ja'Quan McMillian had 12 interceptions in his college career at ECU, safe to say those ball skills followed him to the pros. pic.twitter.com/mHlVnw2gDU

— Frankie Abbott (@FrankiesFilm) December 3, 2024

Can The Denver Broncos Actually Win?

The game script for Denver to win is there, just look back to their 24-22 win in Buffalo last season. In that game Denver won the turnover battle 4-1, and they will certainly need to win it again. But turnovers alone won’t do it, they need to take advantage and score touchdowns on short fields. And if they can’t force four turnovers again, they will need another great game from Marvin Mims.

Mims wasn’t used much in the receiving game in 2023, but his return yards gave Denver an edge in field position. If Mims can replicate his 2023 performance in Orchard Park he will open up the playbook for Sean Payton.

At the end of the day Denver has nothing to lose in this game, and they matchup with Buffalo much better than most teams. Denver will need things to go their way to come out on top, but this won’t be the blowup many people expect.

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