No one knows the future of college football right now. Notre Dame might join the B1G. Oregon and Washington might join the Big 12. The Minions and Gru might join the ACC. Everything is up in the air right now. What is not debatable is that the College Football Playoff should not be affected by conference realignment.
Four-Team Format Does The Job
The four-team format of the College Football Playoff does what it was designed to do, ensure the two best teams play for the national championship in a one-off game. The College Football Playoff is a plus-one system. The problem with the Bowl Championship Series, the Bowl Coalition, and the Bowl Alliance is that deserving teams with a claim to be declared national champions were left out. In 2004, undefeated Auburn was left out of the BCS championship game because Southern Cal and Texas were ranked in the top two spots all season. In 2000, one-loss Miami was left out of the BCS championship game in favor of a one-loss Florida State team they beat on the field. The plus-one format was the solution. Take the two teams with the best claim to be national champions after the bowls and have them face off.
The four-team format works. In 2014, the first year of the CFP, #4 Ohio State won the Sugar Bowl. They then defeated Rose Bowl champions Oregon in the national championship game. Second ranked Alabama won the Cotton Bowl over #3 Michigan State in 2015. They then won a classic over #1 Clemson in the national championship game. Third ranked Clemson beat #2 Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl in 2016. They then edged #1 Alabama 35-31 in a last-second win in the national championship game. In 2021, #3 Georgia beat #2 Michigan in the Orange Bowl before beating Alabama in the national title game. The plus-one format works because it pits the best bowl winners against each other in a championship game.
Current Format Preserves Regular Season
The current playoff system preserves the value of the regular season. If you are in a Power 5 conference, the path to the Playoff is clear: go undefeated. It doesn’t matter if you’re Vanderbilt or Wake Forest or Alabama, if you win all the games you play and your conference championship game, you’re in the Playoff. If you’re a Group of 5 team, you have to go undefeated and hope for some misfortune befalls multiple P5 teams. Cincinnati showed in 2021 that a G5 team can make the Playoff.
Perfection is hard to achieve, but the difficulty is what makes it great. It’s supposed to be hard. If it was easy, anyone could do it, and they wouldn’t call you the best for achieving it. The perfection requirement means every single game counts in the regular season.
Expanding the Playoff means adding teams with two or three losses. If you can lose two or three games but still make the Playoff, you have diminished the importance of regular season games. You’ve watered down the regular season. Players sitting out bowl games is a constant complaint today. If you expand the Playoff, you’ll see players sit out regular season games. What does a season finale rivalry game matter if you already know you’re a lock for the Playoff? Why does going undefeated matter if a loss (or two) means you still qualify for the Playoff? How do conference games matter if you can lose two, win your conference championship, and still make the Playoff?
Expanded Playoff Means More Blowouts
59-20, 38-0, 31-0, 63-28. All are scores of Playoff semi-final bowl games, and all were blowouts. These scores are the results of #2 playing #3 and #1 playing #4. If the 4th best team in the nation is subject to be blown out by #1, what chance does the 12th-best team have? Or the 16th-best team? Playoff expansion proponents argue more participation by more teams is a good thing. Interest in inclusion will fade after multiple blowout losses. Recruiting at a program won’t improve just because they participated in the Playoff, a 30-point loss just tells recruits to go to the winner.
Fans and pundits grumble about blowouts in the Playoff and ‘meaningless’ bowl games, expanded Playoff games will become ‘meaningless’ after several years of blowouts. If you’re a star player on the #16 seed, what is your motivation to risk injury in a likely blowout loss? How many blowouts will it take before stars begin to opt out of Playoff games just like they do bowl games now? How long before lower Playoff games simply become the minor bowls?
Expanded Playoff Means Repeat Games
2021 Playoff saw the rematch of the 2021 SEC Championship Game when Georgia lost to Alabama. Georgia beat Alabama in the national championship game, rendering the conference championship game moot. Playoff expansion means more teams and more chances of repeat games, especially if teams from the same conference are involved. It is much more difficult to beat a team twice, and the Playoff game renders your regular season game meaningless. Imagine Michigan and Ohio State meeting in the Playoff for the second time. What was the point of playing in the regular season if the game result doesn’t count in your quest for a national championship? What is the point of playing in a conference championship game if the result ultimately means nothing?
Fewer Conferences Means Fewer Champions
If the doomsday scenario happens in conference realignment and the Pac-12 and ACC implode, you’re left with the Southeastern Conference, the B1G, and the Big 12. If you accept the conference champions from each of these three conferences plus one at-large as Playoff participants, you don’t need more than four spots. A post-expansion SEC and B1G superconference champion has a legit claim to declare themselves national champions. An at-large team from the two conferences might have a claim they should compete for the championship. The champion of the Big 12 smorgasbord of all of the remaining teams might have a claim. All of the rest of the remaining teams and conferences won’t have an argument, either through too many losses or too weak of a conference schedule.
Conference realignment ultimately means fewer conferences at the top. Fewer conferences and fewer conference champions means no reason for Playoff expansion. Even if Notre Dame is in the B1G, Ducks are in the Big 12, and Minions are in the ACC, the College Football Playoff should retain its current format.
