As far as most NFL rivalries go, the Colts vs Texans rivalry has been pretty much one-sided since the start. After all, the Texans were founded in Peyton Manning’s 2nd year with the Colts. He went on to play with them for 11 more seasons. So it should surprise no one that the overall record between the two is a solid 32-9 in the Colts’ favor. At their last meeting, Week 13 of the 2021 season, the Colts won in Houston, 31-0.
Both teams look a little different this year. Matt Ryan will be seeking to extend his consistent career, now with the Colts. Pairing him with Jonathan Taylor clearly makes them a very dangerous team for opposing defenses. And while the Texans are still only in the 2nd year of their rebuild, most of their energy has been focused on revitalizing their defense. The question is whether it will be enough to stop the Colts in Week 1.
Texans Offense: Slow and Steady
The Colts’ offense should definitely not be underestimated with the dual threats of Matt Ryan and Jonathan Taylor. One of the best (and only) strategies when facing a potentially superior offense is to simply try to limit their time on the field. The Texans can definitely do this, but they have to better protect Davis Mills. In Preseason Week 3, Mills was sacked twice and hit twice after the pass.
But when he’s protected, Mills can kill time all game long. He rarely throws deep passes and is quick enough on his feet to pick up a couple yards. With some hard work he could be an ideal quarterback for controlling the time of possession. Hopefully he can stay healthy and practice those skills during the season, but to do that he needs better protection in the pocket.
One of the biggest unknowns for the Colts vs Texans game is Dameon Pierce. He showed some excellent potential in Preseason Week 3, including a nice run cutting back the field twice in opposite directions. But the real question is whether he’ll be able to sustain that performance. Will he be able to do that all game, or will he need a more rotational setup with Rex Burkhead?
Texans Defense: Bend but Don’t Break
The Colts are definitely going to rack up some yards, and they’ll probably score multiple times too. There’s no realistic way the Texans can hope to contain Jonathan Taylor all day. But if they can limit his big runs and focus their efforts on 3rd and 4th downs, it’s still possible (no matter how unlikely) that they might be able to outscore the Colts.
The Texans’ linebackers could be the key to this strategy. Kamu Grugier-Hill had 106 tackles and 13 tackles for loss last year – including 19 tackles and 3 tackles for loss when these teams last met. Christian Kirksey had 93 tackles last season and a career high 8 passes defended. Considering the Texans have 6 other healthy linebackers, it should also be easier for them to keep their starters refreshed.
As for the Colts’ passing game, the Texans will really need their pass rushers to step up. If they give Matt Ryan or his receivers too much time, there’s just no way they’ll be able to limit their big plays. DE Jonathan Greenard led the team with 8 sacks last season, and added 2 forced fumbles. Now entering only his 3rd season, let’s hope he can keep building on that success. Although a far cry from T.J. Watt’s 22.5 sacks last year, Greenard could still end up playing at an elite level.
CB Derek Stingley Jr. will be another highly anticipated player to watch. If he can use his size and speed to shut down receivers, the No. 3 overall 2022 Draft pick could really help tie everything together. Ideally he could help make up for the linebackers’ shortcomings in allowing receptions and also give the pass rush some extra time to get to the QB. But we definitely shouldn’t expect all that from his first game in the NFL. If he can come even close to that point today, that’s a win on its own.
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