On to Week 5! Another week, another 3-2 performance! While USC wasn’t able to beat the one-dimensional Wolverines and Oklahoma State fell to Utah, Bowling Green, Rutgers, and Miami (FL) did not let us down.
Overall, we are sitting at 15-10. Let’s get a little more separation, shall we?
College Football Week 5 Game Spread Best Bets
(15)Louisville (+6.5) at (16)Notre Dame
This week, we have chosen three ranked matchups to pick from, and 15th-ranked Louisville’s trip to 16th-ranked Notre Dame gets us started. These two have only ever played four times in history and it’s currently tied 2-2.
Last year, the Cardinals tied it up with an impressive 33-20 win at home. Seventh-year quarterback Tyler Shough has taken hold of the reigns and is off to the best start of his career. He leads the ACC with 16.3 yards per completion and 13.29 adjusted yards per attempt. Alabama transfer Ja’Corey Brooks is off to a great start with 297 yards and two scores off just 17 catches. Louisville hasn’t been tested much this year but it is coming off an impressive win over Georgia Tech.
The Fighting Irish have not quite been up to snuff. While they are 3-1, they’ve beaten a weaker Texas A&M team, destroyed the worst Big Ten team, and were uninspiring last week against Miami (OH). The most concerning thing is that loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2, of course. Riley Leonard is struggling, overall. However, he’s the Irish’s top offensive threat both throwing and running the ball.
This is a litmus test for both teams. Is Louisville for real? Can Notre Dame truly get back on track? The Irish could win this one, but it should be closer than a touchdown.
Fresno State (+1.5) at UNLV
The Mountain West has been in the news this week for a number of reasons. For Fresno State, the Bulldogs will be defecting to the new-look Pac-12 in 2026. UNLV did a little “will they, won’t they” with the MWC regarding the Grant of Rights and ultimately decided to return with Air Force.
Mikey Keene is a baller. Through four games, he’s sitting at 1,040 yards and six touchdowns through the air. He leads the MWC with 8.3 yards per attempt. His top receiver has been Mac Dalena and his 431 yards and three touchdowns. After holding with Michigan for a while, the Bulldogs have rattled off three straight wins. However, they will need to shore up that defense.
UNLV is among the favorites to be the Group of 5 representative to this year’s College Football Playoff. However, they will be without starting quarterback Matthew Sluka and RB3 Michael Allen because both have elected to take a seat. Will the offense be better with Cameron Ford (the only other quarterback with an attempt) or Campbell transfer Hajj-Malik Williams? Maybe.
UNLV will likely be fine in the long run. For this one, we are inclined to roll with the Bulldogs just for the distraction factor alone.
Old Dominion at Bowling Green (-9.5)
For the first time in history, the Old Dominion Monarchs will face off against the Bowling Green Falcons.
Through three games, Old Dominion has not looked great. The Monarchs are 0-3 after dropping two one-score games to South Carolina and East Carolina. The offense runs through running back Aaron Young. He has 206 yards and a touchdown off 58 carries. Starting quarterback Grant Wilson played in the first two weeks but was out in Week 3 against Virginia Tech with an undisclosed injury. It is currently unknown if he will be available for this one.
Is Bowling Green the most impressive two-loss team in the country? Maybe, maybe not. However, the point remains that the Falcons have two one-score losses on the road at two of the most hostile environments in the country. BG had Penn State on the ropes and should have won. BG had Texas A&M on the ropes and probably should have won. With potential TE1 in this year’s NFL Draft class in Harold Fannin, Jr., there is a timeline where Bowling Green wins out and takes the MAC for the first time since 2015.
Barring a massive let-down, Bowling Green should easily cover 9.5 points at home against an 0-3 team.
(2)Georgia (-2.5) at (4)Alabama
Easily the game of the week, Georgia travels to Alabama in a top-four matchup. This is going to be a good one.
The Bulldogs are still widely considered to be one of the best teams in the country. They had a scare against Kentucky two weeks ago but Georgia had an off week to prepare for the new-look Alabama Crimson Tide. Crason Beck is developing as a quarterback this year and is garnering some serious NFL hype. This may not be the juggernaut Georgia team of a couple of years ago but it’s still incredible.
Alabama is also off a bye week after three straight commanding wins. The Tide did sweat a little against USF but they ended up pulling away late. Jalen Milroe is taking a step forward under Kalen DeBoer with 590 yards and eight touchdowns through the air. He is also leading the way with 36 attempts on the ground for 156 yards and six touchdowns.
Alabama is going to need to lean on the run game because the Georgia secondary is incredible. This could be another instant classic but we expect the Dawgs to win by a field goal.
(19)Illinois (+17.5) at (9)Penn State
Remember the last time Illinois played Penn State at Beaver Stadium? The Fighting Illini won, 20-18 after nine overtimes. NINE! This year, we are being treated to an early-season undefeated matchup.
The biggest concern with Illinois in this one is whether or not they can avoid a hangover after last week’s emotional overtime win at Nebraska. However, they have what it takes to compete in this one. Luke Altmyer has taken a massive step in his development this year. He’s completing 71.4% of his passes and has 862 yards and a Big Ten-leading 10 touchdowns with no interceptions.
Penn State, meanwhile got over the scare from Bowling Green by kicking the snot out of Kent State last week. Drew Allar is taking the necessary step forward with 729 yards and eight touchdowns thus far. Plus, the Nittany Lions have one of the top running back duos in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
Penn State still likely wins this game but Illinois is better than they have been in the Bret Bielema era. They’ll keep it closer.
