Came out on top in Week 3 with a 3-2 mark. Thank you to UNLV and Memphis for winning outright, and OIe Miss putting a hurting on Wake Forest. We just missed Tulane +13.5 and Miami (OH) faltered down the stretch. To our credit, both bonus picks hit!
Through four weeks, including Week 0, we are sitting at 12-8. Let’s try to have a really good week this week, shall we?
College Football Week 4 Game Spread Best Bets
(11)USC (-5.5) at (18)Michigan
It’s time for the first Big Ten matchup for the USC Trojans! What better way to be welcomed to the new conference than to take a trip to the Big House?
USC exploded back onto the scene in Week 1 with an impressive victory over LSU and followed it up with a dominating win over Utah State. The Trojans have seemingly fixed their biggest weakness from a year ago and have only allowed 20 points in two games. Last week, USC held Utah State to just 190 yards of total offense. Miller Moss has looked the part at quarterback. Lincoln Riley might be cooking already.
Michigan had to rebound after a demoralizing loss to Texas at home and struggled with Arkansas State. After a three-interception, no-touchdown performance from Davis Warren, the Wolverines are turning to Alex Orji, a run-first quarterback with seven passing attempts to his name in three years (six this year). That Michigan offense is awful but the defense will keep it in games.
USC, like Texas, has CFP aspirations as a blueblood in the sport. Against another perceived blueblood, the Trojans should be able to walk into Ann Arbor and do to Michigan what Texas did.
Rutgers (+3.5) at Virginia Tech
Former Big East rivals Rutgers and Virginia Tech get to face off for just the third time since the death of the old conference. Last year, the Scarlet Knights dominated, 35-16.
How is Rutgers still unranked? The Scarlet Knights have a monster running back in Kyle Monangai. In just two games, Monangai is leading the Big Ten with 373 yards and four touchdowns. Transfer quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has been able to do what is needed to this point and Rutgers has a top-nine scoring offense. This will be the first actual test of the year but thus far, they’ve won each matchup easily.
The Hokies are 2-1 thanks to back-to-back wins over Sun Belt foes, Marshall and Old Dominion. That one, however, was Vanderbilt.
This is going to be a game with plenty of running plays. However, Enter Sandman or no, Rutgers should be able to go into Blacksburg and get the win, not just cover.
(12)Utah at (14)Oklahoma State (+1.5)
It’s new Big 12 vs legacy Big 12 as Utah travels to Oklahoma State. Two of the betting favorites to win the conference have gotten off to a strong start to the year and this will be the first real test for either. Plus, it’s a matchup of old men at quarterback!
Utah, after easily dispatching the Week 1 FCS foe, has struggled to cover the spread in each of the last two weeks. Cam Rising missed last week but will be back this weekend. The sixth-year quarterback is the leader of the offense and has been a big part of why four receivers have at least 100 yards already.
The Utes were gashed on the ground last week to the tune of 140 yards for 4.1 yards a pop. Oklahoma State needs to feed Ollie Gordon III and take advantage. He led the team to a Week 1 victory over South Dakota State with 126 yards and three touchdowns.
This spread makes it essentially a pick ’em. Oklahoma State has wins over back-to-back FCS Champions South Dakota State, Arkansas, and Tulsa. Utah’s wins are over Southern Utah, Baylor, and Utah State. Thus far, the Cowboys’ body of work is a bit more impressive.
(8)Miami (FL) (-16.5) at South Florida
The Miami (FL) Hurricanes have been about as on fire as any this year. South Florida put up a fight for three quarters against Alabama.
Hurricanes should win easily, moving them to 3-0 over Florida-based programs (Florida, Florida A&M, USF…they play Florida State later this year).
Bowling Green (+22.5) at (25)Texas A&M
Now we’re cooking. MAC at SEC yet again. There are two such instances of America’s Conference traveling to the Southeastern Conference (Ohio at Kentucky the other) but Bowling Green‘s trip to Texas A&M is intriguing.
The Falcons are 1-1 this year with a win over Fordham and a loss at Penn State. Why would you consider them here? They gave Penn State everything it could handle. The Nittany Lions were beaten. And that was without star running back, Terion Stewart. This Bowling Green secondary is for real and Penn State had to force-feed its two-headed monster at running back to win.
Texas A&M was a hot topic this offseason and it was like seeing the light when Week 1 finally hit. The Aggies fell to Notre Dame but have since beaten McNeese State and Florida since. Conner Weigman was a dark horse for the Heisman and a first-round pick heading into the year but he’s been hurt. His AC Joint is evidently good to go, but keep an eye on whether or not Marcel Reed suits up.
Will Bowling Green pull a Toledo and go into a tough environment in SEC country and get the win? It’s possible. Can they keep it closer than 23 points? Even more possible.
