Elite College Football teams only have really ten real games a year. Sure, there are 12 games in a regular season. Still, one of those opponents is generally an FCS school, and another is a G5 program that any real playoff-contending team should be able to get past without having to play the starters during the 4th quarter.
Even in those ten ‘real’ games, normally, only five to six of them are games that they aren’t favored to win by two scores or more. In other words, for the top 20-30 teams in college football, everything comes down to how they perform in five or six games (of course, barring they take care of business against lesser competition).
The issue is that sometimes the rankings can get a bit muddy when it is a bunch of ranked teams beating other ranked teams. This creates a lot of losses that don’t seem to really derail or hurt a team’s season. Then there are the spoilers.
What is a Spoiler?
A spoiler team is a Top 25 football team’s worst nightmare. These are the kind of teams that will probably finish with 5-7 wins but randomly have two or three ranked wins. Losing to these teams can plummet a ranked team’s potential and even drop them out of the Top 25, especially early on in the season.
Generally, these are the kinds of teams that you look at, and you wonder how they lost to a G5 school, beat a Top 10 team, and then had to escape in 2OT against the worst team in the conference.
A spoiler team also has to play multiple ranked teams in a season. This is why they can even be a spoiler. Because they play so many ranked teams, they take a lot of losses, making their profile look weak. However, if given even an average schedule, they’d likely be in the 7-9 win range.
Looking at 2024, there are a lot of spoilers. With conferences expanding, the range of difficulty on a schedule is frankly unfair. Some teams in the ACC play one ranked team, and others play five.
Which G5 team has the best shot of pulling an upset this season?
Here are four G5/P4 games that I'm looking forward to this season.https://t.co/LbcJx4ojIj@ascheer90 @GroupOfFiveGuys @G5Hive @CPoolReporter @sunbelt_sports @cffmwachsman @ThreeTechPod @walkonredshirts
— Ty Scheiner (@tscheine) August 13, 2024
BYU
BYU is the kind of team that is the definition of a spoiler. Not only do they play many great opponents that are either currently ranked or will likely be ranked at some point this season, but they play most of them at home. BYU is only projected to win four or five games, but anything can happen if you’ve ever seen Lavell Edwards Stadium under the lights.
They play SMU and Utah on the road this upcoming season and then host Kansas State, Arizona, Oklahoma State, and Kansas all at home.
There is a very real possibility that BYU goes 5-7, misses a bowl game, yet be the reason that two teams in the Big 12 miss out of the College Football Playoff.
Florida
Florida may have the toughest schedule in college football history. The Gators play Miami, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State.
Like BYU, their home stadium atmosphere is among the best in college football. It doesn’t matter how good an opponent is; playing in the Swamp is a challenge, and it very well could be a place where dreams go to die this upcoming season as the Gators host Miami, Texas A&M, LSU, and Ole Miss.
Florida could be an average 8-4 talented team that finishes with a 4-8 overall record.
Wisconsin
I almost kept Wisconsin off this list because they could still be a 7-5 kind of team. They make the list, however, because of how many “bubble” teams they play. The bubble in the new college football playoff world with 12 teams looks more like SEC/Big 10 teams that will probably be sitting around 10-2 at the end of the season, hoping to get an at-large playoff spot.
When looking at the teams the Badgers play, Alabama, USC, Penn State, Iowa, and Oregon all fit that mold. None of these teams will likely be 12-0 this season or even 11-1. They all feel like 10-2 teams that will be sweating it out.
If the Badgers can pull off the upset and beat any of these teams, that sweat won’t be needed, as it will be very difficult for them to recover and get back in the conversation.
Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is a tough team to get a read on. Recently, they’ve been towards the bottom of the ACC, but when looking at their wins, they have plenty of “spoiler” wins. Despite ESPN FPI giving them a 4.9-7.1 projected record, their history says enough to put them in a spot to be a prime spoiler.
Last year, the Yellow Jackets shocked Miami and North Carolina and took Georgia down to the wire, losing by only eight points.
This year, Georgia Tech will have plenty of opportunities to play Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Miami, NC State, and Georgia.
The one thing the Yellow Jackets can’t count on this year, though, is getting a late fumble recovery against Miami when the game is essentially over.
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