For years fans have complained about only four teams making the College Football Playoff. Rather than go to eight teams, the NCAA decided to expand to twelve schools with the top four conference winners rewarded with a bye. Each Power 4 conference is guaranteed a spot plus at least one school not in the Power 4. The remaining seven spots go to at-large teams chosen by the playoff committee. It sounds simple, but it creates quite a few issues.
5th or 6th Place

In previous seasons, teams that finished 5th or 6th would complain about not making the top four. Last season, Florida St was undefeated and somehow was left out of the playoff. In 2014, both Big 12 teams, TCU and Baylor, had one loss but were left out of the playoff. TCU was listed as the third seed the previous week. But after Ohio St beat Wisconsin 59-0 to win the Big Ten championship, the committee chose to swap out TCU for Ohio St. Big 12 fans were livid, and the Buckeyes would go on to win the title.
At the time, there was talk about making the playoff six teams with the top two getting byes. The PAC-12 existed back then and the thinking was that each champion of the Power 5 would make the playoff plus one at-large team. That way conference champions would get an automatic bid. TCU and Baylor were co-Big 12 champions because they did not have a conference title game back then. That would change in 2017 when their championship game was reinstated. Many people believed if TCU and Baylor had played each other, the winner would have gotten the spot over Ohio St.
Should conference champions get byes?

In 2016, Penn St beat Wisconsin to win the Big Ten championship. They finished 11-2, including a victory over Ohio St. But the Buckeyes were 11-1, and the committee chose the one-loss school over the Nittany Lions. An early-season loss to Pitt certainly hurt. Penn St fans believed winning the Big Ten should be an automatic bid in the four-team playoff. Ohio St would lose 31-0 in the first round to National Champion Clemson.
In each of these scenarios, a six-team playoff would have helped. But what about the teams that finished 7th or 8th? No matter how many teams you add, schools that get left out will still complain. This season, Miami was one of two 2-loss teams in the Power-4 (BYU was the other) not to make the playoff. Alabama is the other team that just missed. They played one of the toughest schedules in the country, but they also lost three games. It’s hard to make a case for them after losing to Vanderbilt.
Obviously, Miami and Alabama fans are not happy. But no matter how many teams make the playoff, there will always be schools that get left out. So going from four to twelve teams doesn’t fix that. Do you go to 16 teams? In those scenarios, the NCAA would be rewarding three-loss teams. Imagine if your favorite school is undefeated and the #1 seed. In a 16-team field, they would receive no bye and likely face a school with three losses.
The NCAA wants to reward a school like the 2016 Penn St team. They want the conference championship to have meaning and allow those schools to get a first-round bye. The problem with this is the conferences don’t have equal talent. The SEC has 7 teams in the AP Top 25 poll. The Big Ten has 4 of the top 9. In contrast, the Big 12 has only three teams in the Top 25, and the ACC does not have a team in the Top 10.
The NCAA is not rewarding the top four teams. They are rewarding the top 4 teams that win their conference. This year the top four seeds are Oregon, Georgia, Boise St, and Arizona St. Undefeated Oregon has been the best team all season so that makes sense. However, a two-loss Arizona St team does not have the resume that other two-loss teams like Penn St (6th seed), Ohio St (8th seed), and Tennessee (9th seed) have. I understand the desire to reward conference champions, but shouldn’t you reward the best four teams? The NCAA should let the four conference champions make the playoff. I agree with that. However, the top four seeds should be the top 4 teams regardless of whether they won their conference.
Which Seed is the Best?

There is yet another issue. You can argue that the top four seeds don’t have much of an advantage. Sure, you get a bye into the second round. But those four teams won’t play for three weeks. That’s a long time between games. Everyone reading this has seen schools have a big gap before their bowl game, and then the players aren’t on the same page. It’s hard to simulate game speed in practice. Sometimes too big a break can be a bad thing. The lower seed will have played the week before. While there is injury risk for them, the lower seed won’t have to worry about a big layoff.
Texas fell to the 5th seed after losing in the SEC title game to Georgia. Of course, the Longhorns wanted to win the conference. But I believe they have the best seed. Seeds 5-8 get their first-round game at their home stadium. Texas will host the 12th-seeded Clemson. The Longhorns won’t have a three-week layoff, and they host the last seed in the playoff. Then, if Texas wins the game, they get a neutral site game against Arizona St. The Sun Devils had an amazing season after being picked last in the Big 12. But Texas is the better team, and if they defeat Clemson, they will be heavy favorites over the Sun Devils.
Which Seed is the Worst?

There’s no doubt having a seed in the 5-8 range is a huge advantage over the 9-12 seeds. You get a home game against the lower seed. The order of these seeds becomes so important. Notre Dame is the 7th seed and hosts Indiana which is seeded 10th. Neither team played a strong schedule and both are 11-1. The Irish did defeat three ranked teams while the Hoosiers beat none. However, Indiana’s only loss was to 8th-seeded Ohio St on the road. Notre Dame lost at home to Northern Illinois. The Huskies finished 7-5, good for 6th place in the MAC. That’s a bad loss, and you can argue Indiana should be the higher seed.
The SEC and the Big Ten are hands down the two best conferences in college football. So, if you finished 10-2 in those conferences and didn’t win the conference title, you still made the playoff. Texas lost both games to SEC Champion Georgia so it makes sense they have the 5th seed. Tennessee had a successful season after a 10-2 finish and secured an at-large bid to the playoff. However, the committee rewarded them with the 9th seed. They have to play at Ohio St. and, if they win, they play top-seeded Oregon. For some reason, the NCAA is not reseeding the tournament. The 9th seed is by far the worst. Shouldn’t the 12th-seeded Clemson have to play Oregon if they win their game? If Clemson wins they play Arizona St, and if Tennessee wins, they play Oregon. How is that fair?
Final Thoughts
I think a six-team playoff would have made the most sense for the NCAA. You would still reward the two best teams with a bye. Jumping from four to twelve is a massive step. Matchups like Tennessee/Georgia and Ohio St/Penn St mattered only as a rivalry this year. Losing those games didn’t knock the Volunteers or the Nittany Lions out of the playoff. Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois is now forgotten. The playoff will be fun to watch. There is no doubt about that. However, with a 12-team playoff, regular-season games are not nearly as important as they used to be.
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