If you thought the selection process for past College Football Playoffs was controversial with a four team playoff, just wait – things will get much worse. While at Big 12 Media Days, the new College Football Playoff Committee Executive Director, Rich Clark, made some very interesting remarks about how the committee will choose the rankings and which teams will get to host games in the first round of the playoff.
For reference, the College Football Playoff will have teams ranked 1-4 with automatic byes in the first round, with teams 5-12 playing a first-round game. Seeds 5-8 will host a game, while seeds 9-12 will be road teams to those 5-8.
Rich Clark Says Certain Accommodations Will Be Considered
Rich Clark kicked off the second day of the Big 12 Media Days and talked at length about the College Football Playoff. When asked how the at-large spots will be selected, Clark gave an interesting answer:
“There’s a lot of factors that are going to go into this. Weather is going to be a factor… because this game later in the year in the winter than they normally would. Hotels are a factor. Do they have the level of hotels that would be expected for a Playoff game and the availibility when we need it….Everything from ticket sales to managing how we distriubute the tickets… It’s not a game they have been planning on for 6-8 months.”
Who Will Not be Hosting Games?
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This is where things get very interesting. Would the College Football Committee move Penn State from number five to nine so they won’t have to host a game in the cold?
This isn’t just a Penn State issue. Most of the traditional Big 10, the entire MAC, most of the Mountain West, the north half of the ACC, and the north half of the Big 12 are also teams that may be affected by the weather rule.
What about hotels?
Every small market team will almost be eliminated from being able to host a game. Kansas State, West Virginia, Duke, Texas Tech, Mississippi State, and Missouri, you’re out! Most G5 schools, you’re also out!
Then there are ticket sales. Any stadium that holds less than 60,000 is probably out. That eliminates just about every G5 school and some P4s, including Utah, Northwestern, and yes, even Oregon. Sorry, Oregon, your stadium is just too small.
Let the Controversy Begin
The College Football Committee will be looking at this data weeks ahead. When the first rankings come out in October, one has to wonder, will the committee rank teams based on merit or on positioning to allow the most convenient at-large teams to host games? Imagine the controversy of Ole Miss being ranked higher in Wisconsin despite a worse record. Fans of Wisconsin will say the Committee is against them because they don’t want a Playoff game in Madison, Wisconsin.
But what happens with No. 1 and undefeated Michigan loses in the Big 10 Championship game? The Committee can’t drop the Wolverines from No. 5 (Top 5 conference champions get auto-bids, although only the top four get byes) to No. 9 in the rankings. That is absurd. It can’t happen. But according to Rich Clark, it may happen.
Why It Matters
The difference between a five-seed and a nine-seed is night and day. First, a five-seed gets to host a game against the 12-seed, while a nine-seed plays an eight-seed on the road. Next, the winner of the game plays the fourth seed in the second round, whereas the nine seed faces the top seed overall.
So let’s play it out this way with these rankings:
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Oklahoma State
- Florida State
- Michigan
- Utah
- Georgia
- Ole Miss
- Clemson
- USC
- Kansas State
- Tulane
If the Committee lets the rankings play out as they should, Michigan would play at home against Tulane and then face Florida State in the first round. If the Committee decides that Michigan is too cold, Michigan could be moved to No. 9 and have to play Clemson on the road in the first round and Alabama in the second round.
Solution
If Western Michigan is the 7th-ranked team, they deserve an at-large spot, but they really don’t have the stadium size, hotel accommodations, or temperatures to host a College Football Playoff game.
But guess what? If they earn it, give it to them! If fans want to go bad enough, they will find a way to get a ticket, survive in the cold, and sleep somewhere, even if an hour away.
To get there, though, the rankings need to be done by a computer. Human bias has been part of the equation since the playoffs began, but now, with additional data points to consider, things will get worse and more complicated.
