As college football draws closer daily, conference commissioners already accept that their teams won’t have any real chance to play for a National Championship. And let’s be honest about it, they are right.
There is almost nothing that specific conferences can do to realistically have a path to a National Championship. For example, the conference champion from the CUSA must be ranked higher than every other G5 champion before making the playoffs. If they make it that far, they would likely be the 12-seed and have to play the No. 5 seed in the first round, the 4th seed in the second round, and then win two more games against the top three teams to win the championship.
It’s about the same odds of a 16-seed winning the National Championship in college basketball. It just won’t ever happen, and it seems like conference commissioners have accepted that fate and are looking for new options.
NIL and the Transfer Portal are Killing G5 Programs
There was a time when a team like Boise State, TCU, or Utah could get the right combination of players and coaches to build up a team where, after a few years, they were dangerous and able to compete at the highest level.
Those days are over.
Those teams worked and were able to build something special because players couldn’t transfer, and there wasn’t NIL to draw them to other teams. So, for many players, the decision to be a star at a G5 or ride the bench with a P5 team was easy.
Again, those days are over.
Today, even if a player is likely never to see the field, the NIL is too enticing to pass up. Again, for the players who do start at the G5 level and have success, the NIL and ability to transfer via the portal will draw out 95% of the great players.
We are left with many G5 teams that may rise to a decent level one season and then fall back to mediocrity the next, while the P4 teams continue reloading with the best G5 transfers from the previous year.
1 in 64 Teams Will Make the Playoff
Under the current system, 99% of the time, only one team out of the 64 G5 teams will even make the College Football Playoff, while 63 stay at home, either playing in insignificant bowl games, including four conference champions who likely finished with an 11-2 or better record. Even that one team that does get in will be put into a really bad ranking where they will likely never get a first-round BYE or home game.
Yes, I know the College Football Playoff has said they will put in the best teams in order, but do you really think they will send Michigan to travel to play against San Jose State on the road? Not a chance. The CFP Committee has already admitted that external forces will determine where a game is played.
G5 Conference Commissioners Looking for Other Options
According to a report by Ross Dellinger, the G5 commissioners are considering “ the possibility of a reshaped postseason incorporating the bowl system.” What this system looks exactly like is not 100% clear, but Mountain West Conference commissioner Gloria Nevarez said it could resemble the NIT of football.
Again, that is open for debate on what precisely that means, but there are a few possible likely scenarios:
- The NIT awards regular-season conference champions who do not make the NCAA Tournament. This tournament could do the same, giving a playoff for the four G5 conference champions who don’t make the CFP.
- The NIT tends to be full of really good teams from mid-major conferences. Maybe a G5 team goes 11-1 but loses its conference championship. This could give them an opportunity for redemption rather than playing a 6-6 P4 team with 35 players sitting out.
- The NIT is a money grab. While it doesn’t make NEARLY the same as the NCAA Tournament, it is still postseason basketball and gets decent ratings. The main purpose of the NIT is to make money, and there is no doubt that this secondary tournament will only happen if that can also be the case.
Could this actually work? The better question may be, what other choice does the G5 have other than to try something like this?
REPORT: Group of 5 schools are exploring a postseason invitational for teams who don't make the College Football Playoff: 'NIT of Football'👀
(via @RossDellenger) https://t.co/QOwH2jRzwb pic.twitter.com/ScEzgHHgl0
— On3 (@On3sports) August 15, 2024
