Chiefs Challenge Texans: NFL AFC #1 Seed Divisional Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs’ quest for a threepeat begins Sunday at home against the Houston Texans, who they last played back in Week 16, a few days before their visit to Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. It was a 27-19 victory at Arrowhead, and these two teams meet again with a spot in the AFC Championship on the line. So, do the Chiefs yet again advance to another AFC title game? Or does Houston use its rock-solid defense to pick up another stunner like they did last week against the Chargers?
Why the Chiefs Get the Job Done

Simply put, the one major thing Kansas City has is a significant advantage in is their home-field advantage. Not only will they have it for this round and the championship (should they make it there), but they were a perfect 8-0 at home in the regular season. Only the Bills have their home record intact as well, while the number 1 NFC seed in Detroit has a 7-2 home record. Kansas City is also fairly dominant on the road, boasting a 7-2 record, compared to Houston’s near .500 record of 5-4. The Texans are similarly stationed at home, with a 5-3 mark.
Both teams are 5-1 when it comes to divisional play, though Kansas City’s division was a bit more competitive with two playoff teams (them and the Chargers) while Houston was the only team to even sniff the postseason out of the AFC South. Among the rest of their AFC brethren, the Chiefs are 10-2, while Houston is 8-4, giving KC yet another statistical advantage.
But the real breakdown comes in both teams’ offensive and defensive rankings. KC is dead center of the NFL in total offensive yards/game (327.6), while Houston checks in at 22nd (320 yards/game). The Texans do have a slight advantage over KC in rushing yards/game, ranking 15th (112) to the Chiefs’ 22nd (105). KC has the edge in passing yards with 222/game while Houston manages 207/game, 21st in the NFL.
Why Houston Dethrones the Champs

Houston does have one particular way of dethroning the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, and it all comes down to their defense. The Chiefs’ D is strong, but Houston’s is strong as well, setting the stage for what might be a defensive slugfest (which, given how most of the wild card games went, seems pretty likely). In any case, Houston can use its strong defense and special teams corps to pull off a major upset in the divisional, while also hanging a strong game from star RB Joe Mixon on the Chiefs.
However, all this will depend on one thing- can CJ Stroud make his offense as strong or will Houston’s defense carry the load yet again? Stroud’s 2024 stats have been somewhat impressive in his second year in the NFL with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. However, a ratio like that can be problematic, especially since Houston won only their Week 11 matchup in Dallas by double digits. The rest of their 10-7 regular season wins were all by less than 10 points. If you’re wondering how this relates to QB play, a QB with a better TD-INT ratio would lead his team to far more double-digit wins, and especially more against better teams, unlike Dallas at that time.
Prediction: Kansas City 42, Houston 17

The Chiefs will be able to put a few more points on the board than last time, and it’s because most of the Texans’ offense will be missing from this contest. In the previous game, Houston still had WRs Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, plus the always dependable Nico Collins. Now it’s just Collins since Dell suffered a season-ending knee injury in that KC game and Diggs tore his ACL a week or two after. That leaves Mixon and TE Dalton Schultz as Stroud’s primary targets, which isn’t ideal for your first playoff game. The reserve WRs like John Metchie and Robert Woods can try to fill in, but they haven’t had the same playing time this season.
Kansas City, meanwhile, has no significant injuries, especially after an extended rest from Week 18. Yes, they got absolutely shelled by the Broncos and some thought it was intentional to keep Cincinnati out of the postseason but get real- the Bungles were up and down, mostly the latter, all of this season. And they beefed it against the Broncos in Week 17 anyway! At home! In overtime! We all should’ve known frosted tips wasn’t a good hairstyle these days.
Related: NFL Fines Chiefs Top WR For “Excessive Celebration”