After a tough loss on the road last week, the Virginia Cavaliers are headed home. The Cavs will host the Old Dominion University Monarchs in Scott Stadium on Saturday. This is the first UVA-ODU matchup since 2019. Right now both teams are 1-1, each with a win at home and a loss on the road. The fun begins Saturday at 2:00 PM EST in Charlottesville.
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UVA-ODU: A History
The Cavaliers bested the Monarchs in a 28-17 win in 2019. The win didn’t come easily then and it won’t come easily now, either. As we learned when ODU played Virginia Tech two weeks ago, the Monarchs are not a squad to underestimate.
UVA-ODU: All We Know So Far
ODU returned four starters on their offensive line. Their unit isn’t particularly big, but they move well so expect a lot of trap plays and outside runs. The Monarchs offense isn’t their strong point; in fact, they’ve yet to break 300 yards in a game. But, Virginia’s defense continues to struggle against the run so the matchup here could be more equal than any Cavs fan would like.
In play against the Hokies, the Monarchs defense was their crown jewel. They stayed in the backfield and successfully pressured Tech’s QB Grant Wells. They came away from that game with four interceptions and nine pass breakups. That’s not to say the defense performed flawlessly; Wells was left open and able to make big throws more than once.
Virginia should look to recreate and exploit those kinds of opportunities for Brennan Armstrong on Saturday. If the Cavs can get Armstrong out of the pocket and into open space, they can amp up their run game without needing too much from the offensive line. Considering Virginia’s young, inexperienced roster and the performance of the O-Line over the last couple of games, it’s best not to need too much from them. Things will get better but hey, Rome wasn’t built in a day.
The Cavs could also turn to Armstrong’s run game to force changes to the Monarchs defense. Armstrong has shown he can make waves in the air and on the ground; given Virginia’s inconsistency on the O-Line and Armstrong’s versatility it’s worth a shot. There’s really no reason not to try something different after last week’s Razzie Award winning performance at Illinois after all.
UVA-ODU: What to Expect
Virginia’s run game has not been spectacular but they’ll run it early and often. The Cavs wide receivers do have an advantage in their size matchup with the Monarchs defensive backs. On average, Virginia’s WR starting trio are 6’5″, 214 lbs; ODU’s five d-backs average 5’11”, 188 lbs. This is a significant difference in size and if Virginia’s O-Line comes to play this week they should look to capitalize on that.
For Armstrong to have a better game this week, ODU’s sophomore defensive end Amorie Morrison has to be kept out of the backfield. Morrison usually lines up on the left which means he’d be up against the right tackle and in Armstrong’s blind side. What this really means is that Logan Taylor’s job on Saturday is to keep Amorie Morrison out of the backfield to create a comfortable pocket for Armstrong. If he can do that, Armstrong can make quick work of the Monarchs’ undersized secondary.
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Vegas Odds
Last week was a terrible week for Virginia’s offense. Armstrong had a bad performance, play calling was awful, and the O-Line performed abysmally. So far, Virginia’s defense has been better than anticipated while the offense hasn’t quite met expectations. Neither have delivered a great performance and both are a work in progress. But if everyone learned from last week’s many mishaps, they can win this week. Being back in Scott Stadium will help re-focus and reenergize the Cavs. As long as their execution is simply better than last week, they have a shot to win. This week’s mantra: Cautious Optimism.
Last week I wrote that both teams had something to prove. This week, that’s doubly true for the Cavs.
Per FanDuel Sportsbook, Virginia is favored to win this week at a spread of -8.5. The moneyline is -320 and the over/under is set at 52.5.
I like Virginia this week but the Monarchs aren’t a cakewalk and the Cavs need to start really pushing themselves. I’d love to see them cover the spread but I’m sticking with cautious optimism and betting the moneyline.
For a post-game, post-gamble recap check out the University of Virginia on Gridiron Heroics on Sunday!