Happy Tuesday, all. Last night’s DFS two game slate between the Titans and Bills and the Vikings and Eagles worked out pretty decently for me. As noted, the big decision was determining which chalk to fade and which chalk to eat.
DFS Two Game Slate Ownership Breakdown
On a DFS two game slate, or any slate for that matter, knowing ownership helps with decision making. Below is where ownership went last night in multi-entry GPP tournaments.
- Stefon Diggs – 64%
- Justin Jefferson – 59%
- Miles Sanders – 53%
- Bills – 50%
- Josh Allen – 50%
- AJ Brown – 48%
- Dal Cook – 46%
- Adam Thielen – 39%
- Dallas Goedert – 39%
- Devin Singletary – 38%
- Isaiah McKenzie – 37%
- Derrick Henry – 30%
- Dawson Knox – 29%
- DeVonta Smith – 27%
- Jalen Hurts – 25%
My decision last night to fade Josh Allen was simply game theory-based. Josh Allen was around 50% owned. I figured Jalen Hurts had the opportunity to outscore him, so therein lies the decision. This is why ownership matters. If I can identify situations like these going forward, I will take the opportunity every time and live with the consequences. I’m discovering that most times it works out in DFS.
That being said, I was definitely worried after Allen threw his fourth TD. After a second rushing TD from Hurts, as well as Allen hitting the bench halfway through the third quarter, I felt much better about my choice. Hurts was the highest scoring QB and thus a leg up on 50% of the field.
This position was basically a dumpster fire last night. I mostly faded Miles Sanders, and he ended up being the highest scoring RB with 11.6 DK points.
Special teamer Reggie Gilliam came in second with 9.7. At .03% ownership, however, he was not in the winning lineup.
Derrick Henry came in third. Dal Cook was fourth, and his brother James was fifth.
The chalk you absolutely had to eat was Stefon Diggs. This decision was easier than the QB decision in my opinion. At QB, it’s just one person; at WR it’s three. With no Gabe Davis, the target distribution became heavily skewed toward Diggs. I ended up being over the field on him, he was in 85% of my lineups.
This brings up another point about game theory. Sometimes the decision is a full fade to gain leverage, other times it is to make sure you have more shares of a player than the entire field does. Diggs was 64% owned by the field, I had 85%. Advantage me.
What I did not have though was any shares of Quez Watkins. With 14.9 DK points and 3.66% ownership, he was difference in finishing first or not in GPPs.
I personally leaned heavily on DeVonta Smith. With 15 DK points and 27% ownership, he helped me finish well in GPPs.
A Gripe I Have
Justin Jefferson also ended up in the optimal lineup despite Kirk Cousins trying to avoid his receivers like he avoids vaccines. (Shout out to my man Sharkbait for that line. He also makes great cocktails so check him out!) Pardon me while I go on a quick diatribe. Kirk Cousins blatantly ignored Jefferson at times when he was wide open, threw it to him once in the wrong spot resulting in an INT (but Jefferson to his credit took the blame for it), under threw him for a 2nd INT, and then tossed up another under thrown prayer to give Darius Slay the hat trick. Oh yeah, you also had a fourth pick, didn’t you Kirk? Here’s Thielen yelling at him about it:
To quote my friend Liz: “Kirk Cousins is awesome. He always shows up just when you need him to.” She had the Eagles defense last night.
Dallas Goedert was indeed the highest scoring TE. Irv Smith who did the one good thing for the Vikings last night was not far behind. It could have been better though, but unfortunately he had a pretty big drop.
Despite massive ownership, the Bills were the defense to own. Kirk Cousins’ Eagles receivers were second with their four INTs, but the pick six really put the Bills over the top.
I’ll catch you all for TNF’s DFS slate featuring the Steelers and the Browns!
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