Welcome to my DFS Thursday Night Football showdown article between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. As a reminder, you can check out my Showdown rules here. Whenever the Chiefs are on the Showdown Slate, things are little different. Patrick Mahomes has been in the winning lineup in Showdown Slates at an over 90% clip, so fading him is either a) foolhardy or b) will make you look like a genius if he somehow craps the bed. I’ll be using him in 100% of lineups just to make sure I clear the field on what is likely an 80% to 90% owned player.
Game Overview – Chargers v Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs – 4
O/U: 54.5
Money Line: Kansas City Chiefs -195
Chargers Key Players Out or Injured:
- WR Keenan Allen is OUT.
- TE Donald Parham is OUT.
- JC Jackson is Questionable and is a game time decision.
Chiefs Key Players Out or Injured:
- K Harrison Butker is OUT (Matt Ammendola will replace him this week).
- A couple linemen are dealing with some issues, but both were full participants at practice on Wednesday.
For Efficiency Sake: Chargers and Chiefs
I see no need to beat around the bush with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, and Travis Kelce. You can and definitely should play them. I’ll be making a bunch of lineups tonight, and they’ll be littered throughout my lineups.
Chargers
Mike Williams disappointed in week one as he only had two catches. Despite that, Williams played 93% of the snaps and ran 31 routes. He only saw four targets, which happens to be the same amount of targets he saw in week one of 2021. These numbers suggest that 2022’s week one is an outlier. Williams was also signed to a three year $60 million extension in the offseason.
If you’re the Chargers, you don’t do that and then not use him.
- Joshua Palmer operated as WR3 and then as WR2 once Keenan Allen went down against the Raiders. Palmer played 75% of snaps in week one, running 26 routes and seeing four targets for three grabs and five yards. Not elite either, but also a possible outlier. In the three games Palmer started last year, he averaged over 15 PPR fantasy points.
- DeAndre Carter was a fairly big surprise as he had the biggest fantasy day out of the Chargers WR group. However, he only played in 37% of the snaps and ran only 14 routes. That translated into four targets (the same amount as both Williams and Palmer) for three grabs, 64 yards, and one TD. Much more efficient than either Williams or Palmer, but also as much of an outlier.
- Gerald Everett is way too cheap here. Hey look at that! Another Charger with four targets against the Raiders! Despite getting a boost because Allen is out, Everett will likely be covered by LB Willie Gay who ranks 67th out 73 coverage LBs. Additionally, Herbert’s career target average for TEs is 21%.
- Trey McKitty also saw four targets because of course he did. He’s $400 on this Showdown Slate and will likely carry ownership.
Chiefs
- Juju Smith-Schuster saw about 21% of targets from Mahomes. JC Jackson is questionable to play, and even if he does, he might be limited. CBs Mike Davis and Assante Samuel, Jr. did not play well in week one. DeVante Adams specifically ate Samuel alive.
- Mecole Hardman appeared to be the primary slot receiver for the Chiefs. If that holds true vs the Chargers, then Hardman gets slot CB Bryce Callahan who, despite a solid career thus far, has skills that appear to be declining now that he’s reached 30 years of age. Last year he was ranked 75th out of 116. While the Chiefs spread the ball around in week one, Hardman was targeted six times, including twice over 20 yards.
- Marques Valdes-Scantling played 51 of the 70 offensive snaps last week, which actually led the team. He caught all four of his targets and appears to be WR2 on the outside with Juju. MVS has the added bonus of being low owned because people tend to only look at box scores. By just looking at last week’s box score, one might think that he is not a key piece of this offense.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs used a combo of three RBs in week one. On 70 total snaps CEH saw 27, Jerick McKinnon saw 27 as well, and Isiah Pacheco had 16. Pacheco was only in because it turned into a blowout. The Chargers struggle vs the run (Jacobs averaged 5.7 yards per carry last week), which leaves CEH solidly in play.
- Skyy Moore’s day is coming. Maybe not tonight, maybe not next week, but soon, and for the rest of your life.
Best movie ever made in case you haven’t seen it.
I’m the Captain Now!
Mike Williams and Travis Kelce for me. I’m flirting with Austin Ekeler. Both Mahomes and Palmer are looking like they’ll be highly owned in the captain spot, so from a game theory perspective, I’ll be looking elsewhere. ***IF THINGS CHANGE THOUGH, I’ll post a comment here tomorrow night.***
Enjoy the Chargers v Chiefs!
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3 Comments
Good read & even better movie gif!
Meant to say, “solid movie gif” vs even better 😉
– Finding myself with a little less than 100% Mahomes…I’m around like 95%
– Ekeler is indeed in my Captain pool
– I have a couple of Palmer Captain lineups