A pivotal Mountain West matchup between the #17 Boise State Broncos and the UNLV Rebels has the nation on watch. This matchup, between two single loss teams (both non-conference losses), is not only a rematch of the Mountain West Conference championship from last season but also a potential preview of this year’s Conference championship.
These two teams represent some of the best that the Group of 5 has to offer, and what makes this matchup even more nerve-wracking for BSU and UNLV fans (and exciting for everyone else) is just how evenly matched these teams are. Both are atop the Mountain West standings. Boise State ranks third in the nation in scoring offense and second in rushing offense while UNLV ranks 5th in both.
But when it comes to passing offense, the Broncos are 68th while the Rebels are 115th. On defense, the Broncos rank 1st in sacks while the Rebels rank 11th. The Broncos red zone defense (31st) also edges out the Rebels’ (37th). Maddux Madsen has thrown 12 touchdowns to two interceptions while Hajj-Malik Williams has thrown 10 and two.
Key Players for Each Team to Pull Off a Win
The Broncos have a legend in the making in Ashton Jeanty. If he has a big game, Boise State wins. If the Rebels’ 20th-ranked rush defense can, by some miracle, contain him, the Broncos will need someone else to step up. That someone needs to be Maddux Madsen. While his stats are decent, a consistent passing game would take this team to the next level.
For the Rebels, it’s all about defense and stopping Jeanty. Jackson Woodard leads the team in tackles with a total of 63. If he can fly to the ball carrier and stop them in their tracks, it would go a long way in putting a halt to the Broncos’ big-play ability. On offense, quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams will need to do what he’s done a lot of this year and that’s tearing up offenses on the ground and through the air. He leads his team in passing and rushing yards (running back Jai’Den Thomas trails him by 34 yards).
What Do the Stats and Analysts Say About Boise State Vs. UNLV?
In each statistical category mentioned, the Broncos edge out UNLV. Will that be enough advantage to be off the win? If not, also consider that Boise holds a clear advantage in third down conversion percentage, first downs allowed, and a handful of other statistical categories. Of course, the Rebels hold a few advantages of their own, like in rush yards allowed per game (ranked 20th).
According to College Football Network, the Broncos have a win probability of 47.5%, giving the Rebels a 5% win probability advantage. But if you compare it to ESPN, you get a different story. ESPN has the Broncos at a 61.9% win probability, a whopping 23% advantage.
What Are Fans Saying About the Matchup?
Stats and the opinions of analysts are one thing. But how are fans feeling about this matchup? Go Cougs (@Gocougs123) posed the question “Boise fans, how are you feeling about the UNLV game??” on X and got a variety of responses. Here are a few of them:
UNLV just beat the Beavers, a team loaded with freshman, sophmores and 15+ players on injured status. The Rebels looked good, but I can’t see them slowing Boise State nor handling BSU’s grind and pound. Rebels 21 Broncos 48 Go Beavers Go Broncos Go Cougs!
– Steve Blake (@BroncoBeaver) October 20, 2024
BSU by 2 TDS
-David Cahoon (@davidacahoon) October 20, 2024
Defense needs to have their best game. Backfield, specifically. Need some turnovers!
-IamOnlyHereforBoiseState (@OnlyBoise) October 20, 2024
Always like our chances when you got one of them Ashton Jeanty’s on the team.
-Josh Sonoda (@joshsonoda43) October 20, 2024
Gonna be a tough game. I’m cautiously optimistic. Got my tix and flying out Thursday evening
-De Blu (@DeBlu) October 20, 2024
Fans and analysts alike have varied predictions for this game. Some are nervous, some are confident. One thing is for sure, though, and it’s that this is a pivotal game for both teams and they’ll be hungry. Expect two teams ready to fight and a close game.
For More Great Gridion Heroics Content
Follow me on Twitter at @EJohn_316_son and follow us @GridironHeroics for more great content. To read more of our articles and keep up to date on the latest in NFL and College Football, click here!
