There are a lot of questions of how the future of the Big 12 will look. With the recent but completely predictable scenario playing out with Florida State, it appears that the ACC may be heading towards the same path as the Pac 12. If the Big 10 or SEC goes after the ACC and takes some of the biggest brands, such as Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami, one has to wonder where the Big 12 would sit in the world of college football.
One may think that the Big 12, being one of the last three power conferences, is a great spot to be in, but it could actually end up being just the opposite. If the biggest brands and teams were to join the Big 10/SEC below are some potential consequences that could spell disaster for the Big 12.
For the sake of this article, we will assume that the Big 10 and SEC split Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, and Clemson in some combintation.
Power 2 Becomes Major College Football with the Big 12 Left in Limbo
Looking at the latest CFP rankings, the Big 10 and SEC would claim 15 of the Top 25 teams, including 1-13. Granted, with the new conferences, there would be more losses between some of those teams, resulting in lower rankings, but the sentiment is still the same. The Power 2 would dominate the rankings, with the Big 12 picking up quite a few rankings, but not at the same level.
As the Big 10 and SEC start their new TV deals that are much more lucrative than what the Big 12 is receiving, this gap would only widen over time, regardless of what expansion teams the conference adds.
Ultimately, the Big 12 would be in a weird spot where they would clearly be better than any of the G5 conferences, but also clearly lower than the SEC/Big 10.
College Football Playoff Changes its Format
Last year, the College Football Playoff Committee and the various school presidents and chancellors voted to pass a new playoff system. This playoff would feature 12 teams consisting of six automatic qualifying teams from conference champions and six at-large teams.
If the ACC crumbles, it is hard to imagine the CFP Committee wanting to stick with 12 teams when they know that in any given year, they will field 7-9 teams with many of the games being rematches. Instead, look for them to go to an eight-team playoff or even a six-team playoff, with the Big 12 more than likely only getting a single team in.
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ESPN and Fox Alienate the Big 12
This is similar to the first point, but with the new TV contracts, Fox is essentially the TV partner of the Big 10, and ESPN is the partner of the SEC. The Big 12 shares the two TV partners. If the biggest brands are clearly in the Big 10/SEC, it isn’t hard to see a scenario where ESPN goes all in on the SEC, and Fox does the same to the Big 10. Sure, there are TV contracts that guarantee money to the Big 12 schools through 2031, but we’ve already seen unprecedented buy-outs and contract breaches when it makes financial sense.
If this were to happen, the best hope for the Big 12 would be to get with CBS or NBC. Even this, however, could be a tough ask as neither seems to want to go all-in on football quite yet.
What is the Best Case Scenario for the Big 12?
The absolute best-case scenario would be for Florida State and Miami/Clemson/UNC to join the Big 12 and, in many ways, elevate the conference to a spot where they are more competitive with the Big 10/SEC. Up until today, that seemed very unlikely, but with the Seminoles going forward with their process to leave the conference without a pre-determined landing spot, the Big 12 seems like a possible, albeit unlikely option.
If this doesn’t happen, the hope needs to be that the SEC or Big 10 only take Florida State and maybe Notre Dame or just Miami and leave the rest of the ACC to stay in-tact. While this would still be a negative hit to the Big 12 and the ACC, the ACC could go out and pick up some kind of combination of Tulane, Washington State, Oregon State, or Memphis and still be a competitive P4 team. Having a P4 seems significantly more stable for the Big 12 than being the 3rd wheel with the SEC/Big 10.
